The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics.... | Page 2 | Golden Skate

The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Judges really love korpi! Just like if she had been at 2013 euros it likely wouldn't have been 2 Russian ladies on the podium in Sochi korpi could mean no Russian lady in the top 10- if the team is tuktamisheva and sotnikova and they both skate as poorly as they did in London. The third American lady as well! The issue really is can Russia get a skater that can perform well in Sochi? Top 12 could be very hard to make for Liza or sotnikova. I hope they can find their talent again if they're the team. Julia seems to be the best. With Liza and Adelina having been frightened to death of worlds competiton their first time there and that causing massive bombing by both could they be better in Sochi? I just really wanted to bring up korpi mainly!
 

OS

Sedated by Modonium
Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Surprisingly I think the top 3 are not as secure as people think. Ice is slippery afterall and anything can happen.
Zijun, Gold, Liza, Murakami can all prove to be big surprises. Although I would love a bit unpredictability which would make the sport exciting.
Mirai in 4th? lol... one can dream.
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Surprisingly I think the top 3 are not as secure as people think. Ice is slippery afterall and anything can happen.
Zijun, Gold, Liza, Murakami can all prove to be big surprises. Although I would love a bit unpredictability which would make the sport exciting.
Mirai in 4th? lol... one can dream.

Ice was very very slippery in London with kostner falling over the place in the Sp and LP and what happened? Silver medal!! So the whole idea of ice being slippery was tested and the result was no change!
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I think the top 3 are fairly secure. Kim is a lock for a medal since she is too consistent, and thus she cant possibly make enough mistakes to lose to any of this 4-12 pack of girls, even if they skate their best. Kostner or Asada "could" make enough mistakes for an inspired 4-12 girl, but as others have noted they tend to be protected even when they make alot of mistakes, along with being generally superior in many ways to start with.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
I'd have Ashley ahead of Gracie, especially if she gets a solid 3-3. Other than that, I mostly agree -- Kanako underrotates too often to have a real shot at a medal this time around, although I can see her placing in the top 5-6. IF Miki comes back (highly doubt that the JSF will want to send her ahead of Asada, Suzuki, or Murakami), she might pose a threat to Adelina or Kaetlyn, but none of the others.

In overall standings, assuming that the Big 3 are clean or close-to:

4. Ashley
5. Gracie
6. Akiko
7. Kanako
8. Adelina
9. Kaetlyn
10. Second Russian lady (likely Tuktamysheva)
11. Third American lady (likely Gao/Zawadzki)
12. Meite

I think if you are talking about them all skating cleanly that Kanako would be below Adelina for sure, especialy in Russia. So no higher than 8th, but she could even be as low as 9th or 10th below Kaetlyn and/or 2nd Russia lady in a hypothetical all skate cleanly (which wont happen of course). Meanwhile I think if all skated cleanly in Russia Sotnikova would place above Suzuki, and quite possibly Gold and/or Wagner, and be 4th or 5th. Wagner with a solid 3-3 in both programs and skating cleanly would easily beat even a clean Sotnikova or Gold, but if she doent have that by next year she will be more vurnerable to those others, and have a harder time trying to challenge the top 3 for a medal at all (even if they make mistakes). That is key beyond words for her to have acquired in the off season.

Of course who is more likely to skate cleanly or make fewer errors is another story altogether. I think Kanako is more likely to skate cleaner than most, with only UR issues.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
I think if you are talking about them all skating cleanly that Kanako would be below Adelina for sure, especialy in Russia. So no higher than 8th, but she could even be as low as 9th or 10th below Kaetlyn and/or 2nd Russia lady in a hypothetical all skate cleanly (which wont happen of course). Meanwhile I think if all skated cleanly in Russia Sotnikova would place above Suzuki, and quite possibly Gold and/or Wagner, and be 4th or 5th. Wagner with a solid 3-3 in both programs and skating cleanly would easily beat even a clean Sotnikova or Gold, but if she doent have that by next year she will be more vurnerable to those others, and have a harder time trying to challenge the top 3 for a medal at all (even if they make mistakes). That is key beyond words for her to have acquired in the off season.

I think Wagner will not have a PCS edge next year over Gracie and Adelina. Both of the women are young and are continuing to improve their speed and presentation, while Wagner has most likely peaked already. Wagner is a bit robotic and certainly if Adelina and Gracie have good programs and skate well next season they should get marks close to Wagner. I think Wagner's edge is that she can deliver a clean-ish six triple program more regularly than the other two.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
If Gracie skates clean in both the SP and the LP she has every chance of beating Ashley next season. Even at the WTT when Ashley skated a clean LP she barely beat Gracie who would have probably beat her in the LP and overall if she hadn't doubled that last jump. Add a couple points to her PCS if she continues to improve and Ashley has no room for error.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I think if you are talking about them all skating cleanly that Kanako would be below Adelina for sure, especialy in Russia. So no higher than 8th, but she could even be as low as 9th or 10th below Kaetlyn and/or 2nd Russia lady in a hypothetical all skate cleanly (which wont happen of course). Meanwhile I think if all skated cleanly in Russia Sotnikova would place above Suzuki, and quite possibly Gold and/or Wagner, and be 4th or 5th. Wagner with a solid 3-3 in both programs and skating cleanly would easily beat even a clean Sotnikova or Gold, but if she doent have that by next year she will be more vurnerable to those others, and have a harder time trying to challenge the top 3 for a medal at all (even if they make mistakes). That is key beyond words for her to have acquired in the off season.

Of course who is more likely to skate cleanly or make fewer errors is another story altogether. I think Kanako is more likely to skate cleaner than most, with only UR issues.

Contrary to popular belief, I don't think that the Olympics being held in Russia will have a significant impact on the Russian girls' placements, ESPECIALLY after what happened with Patrick Chan at 2013 Worlds. The ISU knows that another SLC-esque scandal -- the Olympics is, undoubtedly, the highest-profile event in the sport -- will be the final nail in the figure skating coffin. Case in point: Vancouver 2010. Both Mao and Yuna finished ahead of Joannie despite Joannie skating solidly on home ice with the crowd's unequivocal support.

I also think it's unlikely that Sotnikova can edge Suzuki, Gold, or Wagner, unless she's PERFECTLY clean while all of those three make major errors. However, I could see a case being made for a clean Sotnikova surpassing a flawed Kanako. The key phrase in all of these scenarios is "clean Sotnikova."
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I think a lot of people have Sotnikova way too high in their predictions to be honest. She is really talented but the issue is she's highly unlikely to skate clean, and even if she were to skate clean, her jump difficulty is not as high as some of the other girls and her GOE won't be that good either because even though her jumps are big, on top of the flutzing her landings are usually wild and unstable which the size of her jumps likely contributes to. Her spins too, although difficult with good flexibility, are often a bit wild and swingy. Idk I just think if everyone were to skate clean, Adelina would finish behind Ashley, Akiko, Gracie, and Kanako definitely and maybe Zijun and Kaetlyn, the 3rd American lady, and her other Russian teammate, too. URs and GOE seem to cost Adelina a lot, at Worlds she skated pretty cleanly and quite well for her standards but the URs and -GOE hurt her scores and she only got 175 points. If she can learn to control her jump landings better, than maybe she can challenge for 3rd-5th place at the Olympics, but that's a big ask for a short amount of time, so I tend to think she'll settle for a place in the lower half of the top 10, provided she even makes the team.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
Here's my prediction(based on skaters' consistency, how likely they're going to execute all of their planned elements, PCS they're recieving right now, etc)

4.Gracie Gold
5.Akiko Suzuki
6.Ashley Wagner
7.Zijun Li
8.Adelina Sotnikova
9.Kanako Murakami
10.Kaetlyn Osmond

To me, two reasons I find it difficult to make predictions for top 4~10 is because 1.While Akiko has highest PB score, she's been quite inconsistent this season 2.We don't know which ladies Russia would send to Sochi. However, I think Gracie, Akiko and Ashley can definitely aim for bronze, while I don't think others would be able to do so.
 

clairecloutier

Final Flight
Joined
Aug 27, 2003
I think a lot of people have Sotnikova way too high in their predictions to be honest. She is really talented but the issue is she's highly unlikely to skate clean, and even if she were to skate clean, her jump difficulty is not as high as some of the other girls and her GOE won't be that good either because even though her jumps are big, on top of the flutzing her landings are usually wild and unstable which the size of her jumps likely contributes to. Her spins too, although difficult with good flexibility, are often a bit wild and swingy. Idk I just think if everyone were to skate clean, Adelina would finish behind Ashley, Akiko, Gracie, and Kanako definitely and maybe Zijun and Kaetlyn, the 3rd American lady, and her other Russian teammate, too. URs and GOE seem to cost Adelina a lot, at Worlds she skated pretty cleanly and quite well for her standards but the URs and -GOE hurt her scores and she only got 175 points. If she can learn to control her jump landings better, than maybe she can challenge for 3rd-5th place at the Olympics, but that's a big ask for a short amount of time, so I tend to think she'll settle for a place in the lower half of the top 10, provided she even makes the team.

I agree with this. I think Sotnikova is overrated. In addition to the technical problems you mentioned, I feel her programs and packaging are not where they need to be. Her SP wins at Europeans and WTT indicate the judges like her, though, so there is potential, but I just don't see her on the World/Olympic podium until 2015. There are just too many other contenders, and if anyone breaks through the Yuna-Mao-Carolina group to medal, I think it's more likely to be Wagner, Gold, or Murakami.
 

Serious Business

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 7, 2011
I think people are full on cray cray if they don't think skating in Russia gives Liza and Adelina (or whoever else makes the team) a huge boost. Part of it will be that judges are human, and the cheering and applause will have an effect on them. But perhaps more importantly, the cheering and support will have an effect on the Russian ladies, a big positive effect. They are going to feed off the crowd and skate even better. Yes, there's a huge dose of pressure that comes with the situation. But whoever makes it onto the team will have to run an absolute gauntlet to qualify, so they will have to be competitors who can handle the pressure. Mind you, all the top Russian girls will be skating extra, extra hard for the honor and massive opportunity it is to represent the host country in the marquee sport of the Winter Olympics. Add to that the desire to prove themselves after losing a spot at the recent worlds. The qualifiers are going to be absolute beasts. I would not be the least bit surprised if we have one Russian on the podium.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
Contrary to popular belief, I don't think that the Olympics being held in Russia will have a significant impact on the Russian girls' placements, ESPECIALLY after what happened with Patrick Chan at 2013 Worlds. The ISU knows that another SLC-esque scandal -- the Olympics is, undoubtedly, the highest-profile event in the sport -- will be the final nail in the figure skating coffin. Case in point: Vancouver 2010. Both Mao and Yuna finished ahead of Joannie despite Joannie skating solidly on home ice with the crowd's unequivocal support.

I disagree, because you have examples of home cooking every season. I think it's more likely to not happen at the very top because, like you said, it's the Olympics and there would be an uproar if the wrong person won the gold medal. But the Russian ladies are probably competing for bronze, at best. I can see a situation where one of them would get scored in a way that could place them a few spots higher than they might otherwise earn, like 7th to 5th.

Joannie's situation was a little different because the top two spots were already decided before the games, and neither Mao nor Yuna did anything to give them away. Were you surprised Joannie finished behind Yuna?
 
Joined
Jun 21, 2003
Here is why Zijun Li is going to make the podium.

At worlds she got fourth in the LP. In the SP she made one mistake which cost her 5.9 points. Giving her that one back, instead of finishing 12th in te SP, here she goes up the ladder.

On TES, she leaps ahead of Meite, zooms past Helgasson, surpasses Gold, overtakes Sotnikova, bests Sukuki, edges Asada, Wagner, Osmond... She's in third 0.13 points behind Kim and 0.21 points behind the leader, Murakami.

On the PCSs side, without the disruptive fall her scores rise from mid-sixes to mid-sevens (as she attained in the LP). This gives her aa boost of 4 points in PCS. She beats Meite, Helgasson, Gold, Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, Murakami... she's fourth in PCS behind only Asada, Wagner, and Kim.

She matched that with a fourth place (in real life) finish in the LP, with TES second behind Kim, beating Kostner and Asada in TES.

All she needs is a rule change to give a bonus for "totally delightful" and she's in like Flynn. :yes:
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Joannie actually had a real shot at the silver at the Vancouver Games. Had she duplicated her Canadians long program she would have gotten it for sure. Mao was not a lock for silver going into Vancouver. She had a poor season and hadnt even made the Grand Prix final, and had been 4th at the previous years Worlds. Although I can more easily see Gold, Wagner, or Suzuki slipping in for a bronze or even a silver in Sochi; I do think Sotnikova or another Russian has a very slim shot at bronze if one of Kostner or Asada bomb pretty badly and one of them skates great.

The only certainty is that Kim will medal and probably win gold, and the worst she could do is silver if she is a bit off and one of Asada or Kostner skates totally lights out (she is too consistent to be more than a bit off, or to ever lose to one of the second tier contenders, only Asada and Kostner have a very slim shot to beat her).
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Lol sotnikova is getting a ridiculous amount of discussion because the Olympics are in Russia. Falls or singling on every other flip, Flutz, leaving out combos, too many combos, underrotating triple toes, barely top 10 at worlds, worst programs in skating, worst coach in skating, etc etc!!
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
For some odd reason I think at least one of Liza or Adelina will not make the Olympic team...they are the frontrunners going into this whole thing and that's a ton of pressure to bear, and at 16/17, one can't be certain post-puberty body changes aren't entirely behind them either, and further, we've seen both of them crumble under pressure/nerves before. I think Julia will be on the team and the second spot will go to ONE of Adelina or Liza, or even someone like Leonova, Korobeynikova, or Pogorilaya. I know a lot of people think the last 3 girls I mentioned totally suck right now, but they have the advantage of flying under the radar a bit which could play to their advantage - no one expects any of them to make the team, all the attention will be on Adelina and Liza, so in the case that the pressure gets to one or both of them, I bet one of these other girls will swoop right in and take advantage of the situation and earn a spot on the team (or at least deserve to - idk at this point if the Fed were to name Tuk and/or Sot to the Olympic team anyway even if someone like Korobeynikova or Pogorilaya beat them at Nationals...)
 

tulosai

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 21, 2011
I agree with this. I think Sotnikova is overrated. In addition to the technical problems you mentioned, I feel her programs and packaging are not where they need to be. Her SP wins at Europeans and WTT indicate the judges like her, though, so there is potential, but I just don't see her on the World/Olympic podium until 2015. There are just too many other contenders, and if anyone breaks through the Yuna-Mao-Carolina group to medal, I think it's more likely to be Wagner, Gold, or Murakami.

I am no Sotnikova fan but I think a lot of people here have their heads in the sand regarding where she would place if clean. I admit, totally, that she is not likely to be clean (but then, who other than Yuna is) and that her realistic placement as I see it is somewhere between 6-12).

The judges really like Adelina, even when she makes big mistakes. I believe it is still true she hasn't placed off the podium at any international competition but Worlds (where she was 9 with major errors) and Rostelcom. I think that to suggest that if everyone skated clean, Adelina might finish behind Akiko, Gracie, Kanako, Zijun,Kaetlyn, the 3rd American lady, and her other Russian teammate, as another poster did, is ridiculous. The only one of those she might finish behind if all truly skated clean is Gracie, and IMO that is far from a sure thing.

This is not how I think it should be but where, objectively, I think international judges would likely place her.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
At Worlds Osmond had bigger mistakes than Sotnikova and still beat her. Basically almost everyone who beat her had alot of mistakes, and it was not like she was disaesterous there, just her usual issues with URs and flutzing mostly. Tuktamysheva would have scored about the same as Sotnikova in the LP at Europeans even without her singled flip, and beat her when both were clean in the short at Nationals. I think in general Sotnikova is quite overrated, and the only reason I would give her a decent placement if all were clean at the Olympics (which wont happen so it is almost a silly discussion) is it being in Russia. I think in Russia a clean Sotnikova would be very close with a clean Wagner, clean Suzuki, and clean Gold if all are clean (unless Wagner gets a solid 3-3 in which case she pulls clear of that group); but outside of Russia she for sure would lose to all of those 3 and possibly Murakami, Osmond, and her own teammate in that scenario. That is even discounting her massive consistency issues.

I also agree that atleast one of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will miss the Olympic team. I fully expect Lipnitskaia to make it. She handles pressure and skates cleanly much more regularly than Sotnikova and Tuks do. One of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will probably take the other spot, but I wouldnt be shocked if someone else knocked them off and neither made it.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I disagree, because you have examples of home cooking every season. I think it's more likely to not happen at the very top because, like you said, it's the Olympics and there would be an uproar if the wrong person won the gold medal. But the Russian ladies are probably competing for bronze, at best. I can see a situation where one of them would get scored in a way that could place them a few spots higher than they might otherwise earn, like 7th to 5th.

Joannie's situation was a little different because the top two spots were already decided before the games, and neither Mao nor Yuna did anything to give them away. Were you surprised Joannie finished behind Yuna?

I agree with pangtongfan here. Going into Vancouver, it seemed like Joannie had a shot at the silver medal due to Mao's incredibly risky program layout that involved three triple axels across both segments of the competition. That season, Mao had also had a mediocre GP that involved one bronze medal and one fifth-place finish, while Joannie had medalled at both of her GP events AND 2009 Worlds. They were all trying to best Yuna, of course, who won her gold medal with leagues to spare -- the gap between Yuna and every other competitor, even Mao, was already evident. However, the point here is that Mao delivered despite the odds not entirely being in her favor; Joannie was also delightful, but she wasn't gifted the silver medal by the judges simply because she's Canadian.

I would still have a hard time picturing any Russian lady on the podium, but you're right about the 7th to 5th place finish or something similar. In fact, taking it a step further, I think that if the wrong person won ANY color medal, there would be an uproar, which shuts out Sotnikova and Russian lady #2 (yes, even if COMPLETELY clean) from possibly medalling ahead of a decent performance by one of the Big 3. For what it's worth, I'm predicting right now that all of the Big 3 will have to make at least three major mistakes across the competition to drop off of the podium.
 
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