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Thread: The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

  1. #226
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I dont think a clean Korpi would place that low. The judges adore her and give her inflated marks even with alot of mistakes. It doesnt matter since she will never skate cleanly but she wouldnt place that low if she did.

    I highly doubt Lipnitskaia would beat anyone noteable with all skating cleanly, but the reason I think she will make the Russian Olympic team over atleast one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva is she is so much more consistent than they are.
    I don't think that Kiira would beat any of the above even if clean, though. She doesn't attempt the big combinations (3T+3T doesn't count), so I can't see her surpassing those who do (or those like Kanako, who gets high enough PCS to mostly balance out her UR's).

    Lipnitskaia could beat both Osmond and Korpi if clean, I think. But not the others.

  2. #227
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    We will probably never find out but Murakami doesnt get huge PCS. I think the judges would give Korpi higher PCS than Murakami if both were clean. Not doing the hard combinations doesnt matter much under COP, except a bit in the short. The difficulty of a triple lutz-triple toe vs a triple toe-triple isnt rewarded under COP like under 6.0. Say the skater who did the toe-toe did 2 lutzes, and the skater who did the lutz-toe did a solo lutz and solo toe, the point total would be the same, and even if the latter did a 2nd triple flip or loop the difference would still be miniscule overall. Korpi doesnt have problems with URs on the jumps she does like Murakami.

    Osmond should beat Lipnitskaia if both are clean. She has much better quality and bigger jumps, and much better choreography and speed.

  3. #228
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    The problem is Lipnitskaia is usually clean, while Osmond, with five international competitions under her belt, has yet to deliver even a nearly clean FS.

  4. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The problem is Lipnitskaia is usually clean, while Osmond, with five international competitions under her belt, has yet to deliver even a nearly clean FS.
    She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.

  5. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.
    Julia's 2013 WJC performance should be excused, I believe, because she was still recovering from her concussion. I highly doubt that a healthy Julia would have placed as low as fifth at Russian Junior Nationals. As for her other performances last season, I wasn't surprised to see her shaky and uncertain on the GP, when she finally realized that she was playing for real. It's an issue that many (almost all) face in the junior-to-senior transition. In fact, I'd go so far as to argue that the first two years on the senior circuit are the hardest -- see Tukt (two GP golds her first year, one silver the second) and Sotnikova (two bronzes the first year, one bronze the second).

    Many believe that either Tukt or Sotnikova will be knocked out of an Olympic spot by Julia, but I'm not so sure this is likely. Tukt will be fighting her hardest if only because her Samsung sponsorship demands it; Sotnikova is a 3-time Russian champion who knows the drill. If Julia proves to be seriously affected by her changing body, she may lose the advantage of consistency/steady nerves over the other two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    I agree. Gracie lost at Cup of Russia narrowly to Korpi mainly because of a sloppy LP. Even in just her second GP event of her career she would have beat Korpi if clean and now with a year under her belt the judges have shown that that will give Gracie the marks.
    In that competition Korpi missed both of her triple loops in the LP. Sounds like you're trying to compare a sloppy Gold to a clean Korpi, and that's not the case.

  7. #232
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    Kiira can score very high, 125+ in the LP, if she skates clean. It's just never happening though.

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    Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol. Knowing the drill for sotnikova really doesn't make flips reliable. Though of course she could reduce reliability on flips. There's a reason why I think Julia is number one. Her problems are less than the problems of Liza and sotnikova almost combined and her wjc 2013 performance being far superior to Liza and Adelina no pressure wtt performances in addition to their worlds performances in which people excuse Liza and adelina's atrocious performances because of nerves.

  9. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol.
    The suspicion in figure skating has always been that money talks. The sponsors want their girl to get good scores, the ISU (not to mention the IOC) wants the sponsors to be happy, the National Federations want the ISU to be happy, the judges want the National Federations to be happy...

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    Quote Originally Posted by pohatta View Post
    In that competition Korpi missed both of her triple loops in the LP. Sounds like you're trying to compare a sloppy Gold to a clean Korpi, and that's not the case.
    That's true but Gracie even with all her struggles last season slated a clean LP at the WTT at the end of the season with only a triple jump being doubled and scored 127 points.

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    I also think if Wagner and Gold both skate cleanly who the USFSA prefers as its #1 will probably determine who places higher. Murakami vs Suzuki will be a similar situation, but based on who the JSF considers their #2.

  12. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Samsung will make Liza better at short programs? We'll see! Lol. Knowing the drill for sotnikova really doesn't make flips reliable. Though of course she could reduce reliability on flips. There's a reason why I think Julia is number one. Her problems are less than the problems of Liza and sotnikova almost combined and her wjc 2013 performance being far superior to Liza and Adelina no pressure wtt performances in addition to their worlds performances in which people excuse Liza and adelina's atrocious performances because of nerves.
    Erm, no. Liza and her team will make Liza better at short programs. Having a big Olympic sponsor is simply extra incentive to make the team.

    Flips or not, you can't reasonably deny that experience doesn't go a long way. Julia has.competed in 1 RN; Adelina has been in how many? Five? Not even in the worst case scenario would that put her at a disadvantage.

  13. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    The suspicion in figure skating has always been that money talks. The sponsors want their girl to get good scores, the ISU (not to mention the IOC) wants the sponsors to be happy, the National Federations want the ISU to be happy, the judges want the National Federations to be happy...
    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    Erm, no. Liza and her team will make Liza better at short programs. Having a big Olympic sponsor is simply extra incentive to make the team.

    Flips or not, you can't reasonably deny that experience doesn't go a long way. Julia has.competed in 1 RN; Adelina has been in how many? Five? Not even in the worst case scenario would that put her at a disadvantage.
    Well nationals is not really that decisive in getting to te olympics. Euros is just as important if not greater. If Liza Adelina Julia go to euros it Adelina only has a 1 trip advantage. In 2012 Julia almost won Russian nationals. There is not much of an advantage factor Adelina has. If you look at how people argue the pressure at being at their first worlds got to both Liza and Adelina than trying for their first olympic trip could be devastating for both of them. No matter how much samsung sponsors Liza or the Russian federation likes Adelina. Both benefit a lot from their being no real standard of performance at Russian nationals in going to euros. The winner is the only one who gets an automatic trip. The winner if Adelina Julia Liza don't win might not even be eligible. So then it is whoever has the federation support or samsung sponsorship! Hope they skate well but it's not even really necessary. It's more necessary at euros maybe.

    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    She wasnt so regularly clean last season. She made mistakes in all her events other than Finlandia, and failed to defend her World Junior title, losing to an even younger skater. I still have a feeling she will rebound enough to make the Russian Olympic team at the expense of one of Sotnikova or Tuktamysheva, but there is no doubt her star dimmed a bit from what it was in 2011-2012. Had this same topic been a year ago she would be much more favorable in peoples eyes, as people were really excited about her then, and not so much now.
    In 2013 Julia Lost to the better Elena. Elena is younger but younger doesn't mean inferior. Elena is also better than Liza and Adelina.

  14. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    If you are referring to the injury that prevented Korpi from skating at Worlds ... she has been back on the ice for weeks, if I am not mistaken. (If she has had a new-new very recent injury, then sorry, I am not aware of that.)
    And I believe that she was in Canada getting choreography not too long ago. Ashley Wagner and she were tweeting about coincidentally being there at the same time.
    Correcting myself re Korpi :
    It was three MONTHS ago (Mar 28, even further back than I had remembered previously) that Korpi received the green light from her doctor to return to the ice.
    She performed in some shows in April.
    Some of her tweets make references to her training, e.g.:
    @kiirakorpi_fi
    Excited about this week's training. Ready to attack some more triple jumps!  #sochionmymind
    2:02 AM - 13 May 13
    Jeffrey Buttle and she finished her new SP choreography on June 15.

  15. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    Correcting myself re Korpi :
    It was three MONTHS ago (even longer than I remembered previously) that Korpi received the green light from her doctor to return to the ice.
    She performed in some shows in April.
    Some of her tweets make references to her training, e.g.:
    @kiirakorpi_fi
    Excited about this week's training. Ready to attack some more triple jumps!  #sochionmymind
    2:02 AM - 13 May 13
    Jeffrey Buttle and she finished her new SP choreography on June 15.
    Good luck to Kiira on upcoming season! I hope there would be no injuries for her next season-I really missed watching her skate.

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