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Thread: The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

  1. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    Here is why Zijun Li is going to make the podium.

    At worlds she got fourth in the LP. In the SP she made one mistake which cost her 5.9 points. Giving her that one back, instead of finishing 12th in te SP, here she goes up the ladder.

    On TES, she leaps ahead of Meite, zooms past Helgasson, surpasses Gold, overtakes Sotnikova, bests Sukuki, edges Asada, Wagner, Osmond... She's in third 0.13 points behind Kim and 0.21 points behind the leader, Murakami.

    On the PCSs side, without the disruptive fall her scores rise from mid-sixes to mid-sevens (as she attained in the LP). This gives her aa boost of 4 points in PCS. She beats Meite, Helgasson, Gold, Sotnikova, Suzuki, Osmond, Murakami... she's fourth in PCS behind only Asada, Wagner, and Kim.

    She matched that with a fourth place (in real life) finish in the LP, with TES second behind Kim, beating Kostner and Asada in TES.

    All she needs is a rule change to give a bonus for "totally delightful" and she's in like Flynn.
    Li is going to surpass Gracie on TES? Li has neither the speed nor power or height that Gracie gets on her jumps and Gracie does some of the hardest jumps in the world right now.

  2. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    At Worlds Osmond had bigger mistakes than Sotnikova and still beat her. Basically almost everyone who beat her had alot of mistakes, and it was not like she was disaesterous there, just her usual issues with URs and flutzing mostly. Tuktamysheva would have scored about the same as Sotnikova in the LP at Europeans even without her singled flip, and beat her when both were clean in the short at Nationals. I think in general Sotnikova is quite overrated, and the only reason I would give her a decent placement if all were clean at the Olympics (which wont happen so it is almost a silly discussion) is it being in Russia. I think in Russia a clean Sotnikova would be very close with a clean Wagner, clean Suzuki, and clean Gold if all are clean (unless Wagner gets a solid 3-3 in which case she pulls clear of that group); but outside of Russia she for sure would lose to all of those 3 and possibly Murakami, Osmond, and her own teammate in that scenario. That is even discounting her massive consistency issues.

    I also agree that atleast one of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will miss the Olympic team. I fully expect Lipnitskaia to make it. She handles pressure and skates cleanly much more regularly than Sotnikova and Tuks do. One of Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva will probably take the other spot, but I wouldnt be shocked if someone else knocked them off and neither made it.
    But a big problem was that Tarasova has decided to stick her head in the sand and pretend Sotnikova doesn't have huge Flip problems and decided to attach a three jump combo to one of her flips in the FS and in the worlds fs she missed her second flip - as anyone should expect she would at this point and she lost out on her three jump combo as well as all her flutzing and URing triple toes! So Even if you want to avoid flutzing as much as possible I don't understand how any coach could send a skater out knowing that if you give them two flips they are guaranteed to miss one and in sotnikova's case that means missing 2 jumps of a 3 jump combo? And that is with an insane and ridiculous 5/2 jump layout!

  3. #48
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    Chances are that at least one of the ladies in this batch will make the podium, and it's possible that one of them may win gold.

    1992: Kurt Browning's coronation as Olympic Champion. Uh... Petrenko, Wylie, and someone else who wasn't supposed to be there.

    1994: The showdown! Browning and Boitano! Uh... Urmanov. Yeah everyone had him picked.

    1998: Michelle Kwan delivers two of the most exquisite programs in history at US Nat's, and loses Olympic Gold... although in this case, the only difference is that the predicted gold and silver medalists were flipped... not a huge upset.

    2002: I know everyone predicted Sarah Hughes...

    A LOT can happen. Someone can have the skate of a lifetime. The favorites can fall under the pressure.

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    I think it's very possible that even if sotnikova and Adelina are beaten at nationals and don't qualify for euros they will be sent to euros anyway and if they recover and beat the person who Beat them at nationals at euros they will be sent to the Olympics. I think two euros spots are reserved for sotnikova and tuktamisheva but not Olympic spots. Hopefully that's not the case! Like if Liza places poorly at nationals because of a bad sp or sotnikova because of a bad lp they will find some way to get them to euros or Olympics. I know a lot of people say Julia doesn't even have a shot which is amazing but if the two worlds 2013 bombers bomb in 2014 why such goodwill for them?
    Well the good thing is Julia will have an opportunity to skate twice in the Grand Prix to assess how she scores against an international field. The problem is she gets no GOE whatsoever on her jumps when she competes against top senior skaters. Here are the protocols from TEB and CoC long programs:

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

    She skated reasonably well at these events, had a high base value, and rotated 6 triples but still did not break 120. Liza has gotten 130 in a LP skating against Caro, and Sotnikova can score in the 120s with errors. Not being able to get almost any GOE in 7 jumping passes will make it difficult for Julia, so she has so much work to do on improving her jumps to get GOE.

  5. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    Chances are that at least one of the ladies in this batch will make the podium, and it's possible that one of them may win gold.

    1992: Kurt Browning's coronation as Olympic Champion. Uh... Petrenko, Wylie, and someone else who wasn't supposed to be there.

    1994: The showdown! Browning and Boitano! Uh... Urmanov. Yeah everyone had him picked.

    1998: Michelle Kwan delivers two of the most exquisite programs in history at US Nat's, and loses Olympic Gold... although in this case, the only difference is that the predicted gold and silver medalists were flipped... not a huge upset.

    2002: I know everyone predicted Sarah Hughes...

    A LOT can happen. Someone can have the skate of a lifetime. The favorites can fall under the pressure.
    I guess you could add 2006 to the list -- Sasha Cohen was, if not the favorite to win, then the most likely. It was supposed to be a fight between her and Irina Slutskaya, until Shizuka Arakawa showed up and blew everyone away.

    However, the situation may be different this time in that Kim, Kostner, and Asada are, beyond reasonable contention, the best in the world. I don't think Kim has ever cracked under pressure (at least, not to the extent that she fell off the podium); her cool temperament really is incredible. Asada and Kostner are more vulnerable to faltering, especially now that people are expecting them to medal. But even if one or more of the other girls had the skate of a lifetime, it's hard to imagine it being enough to overtake one of these three. It's been a long time since the sport has had such a total monopoly on the three medals. Even Sarah Hughes, the "flash in the pan" champion, had a World medal to her name before SLC, an accomplishment that none of 4th-10th at 2013 Worlds can boast.

    If anyone can upset one of the Big 3, I'd put my money on Wagner or Suzuki. But we've seen this season that those two can be hot and cold without warning...

  6. #51
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Li is going to surpass Gracie on TES? Li has neither the speed nor power or height that Gracie gets on her jumps and Gracie does some of the hardest jumps in the world right now.
    2013 worlds LP TES:

    Li 69.21
    Gold 65.22

    SP TES:

    Li:30.76
    Gold: 30.23

  7. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    2013 worlds LP TES:

    Li 69.21
    Gold 65.22

    SP TES:

    Li:30.76
    Gold: 30.23
    I think Jammers was suggesting that Li will not surpass Gold in TES if both are clean, an assessment I agree with. A clean Gold can be beat by Yuna Kim, but that's pretty much it.

    ETA: Li was simply a superstar in the FS; Gold was flawed. In the SP, Li received a downgrade and -GOE on one element, while Gold received a downgrade and -GOE on three elements (and the space wherein is only 0.50 points). It's not quite as fair a comparison, IMO, as it would be if we had access to perfect competitions from both.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ForeverFish View Post
    I think Jammers was suggesting that Li will not surpass Gracie in TES if both are clean, an assessment I agree with.
    Except Li was undermarked in PCS all season and she faces the difference of coming from a weak federation as a newbie on the scene. Her newbie score was very much like how Hanyu was perceived in his first season without half of the hype he has been given (some by me ). If she go consistent next season, her PCS should climb as she was undoubtly the new break through star of 2013. Plus China... the new Japan for Asia market (esp after Mao/Kanako/Suzuki all retire after Sochi) might buy her some brownie points and good will from ISU. If Asia need a new star after the Japanese, Korean are gone... they should look towards China!

  9. #54
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    Thanks, ForeverFish. You're right about Arakawa; I don't know how I forgot that.

    In guessing who might upend the Top 3, my money is on Gold.

    If she skates clean technically, she is capable of electrifying TES. In addition, working with Zueva certainly won't do her PCS any harm. I'm very interested in seeing a new look from her once the season gets underway. I just don't think Wagner has enough technical to get the job done, although she's capable. Of your two choices, I think Suzuki is the most likely.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by os168 View Post
    Except Li is undermarked in PCS all season and she faces the difference of coming from a weak federation as a newbie on the scene. Her newbie score very much like how Hanyu was perceived in his first season. If she go consistent next season, her PCS should climb as she was undoubtly the new break through star of 2013. Plus China... the new Japan for Asia market (esp after Mao/Kanako/Suzuki all retire after Sochi) might buy her some brownie points and good will from ISU. If Asia need a new star after the Japanese, Korean are gone... they should look towards China!
    We were purely considering TES, though.

    Anyway, I don't find anything particularly unjust about Li's PCS. She isn't as fast across the ice as most of the other ladies (the Big 3, Wagner, Murakami, Gold, Suzuki, and Sotnikova), and her skating skills are just above average. I could see a case being made for her receiving higher scores in P/E and IN, but even then, I'd have a hard time putting her any closer to the Big 3, or even to Suzuki, Wagner, and Murakami.

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Well the good thing is Julia will have an opportunity to skate twice in the Grand Prix to assess how she scores against an international field. The problem is she gets no GOE whatsoever on her jumps when she competes against top senior skaters. Here are the protocols from TEB and CoC long programs:

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf
    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gp..._FS_Scores.pdf

    She skated reasonably well at these events, had a high base value, and rotated 6 triples but still did not break 120. Liza has gotten 130 in a LP skating against Caro, and Sotnikova can score in the 120s with errors. Not being able to get almost any GOE in 7 jumping passes will make it difficult for Julia, so she has so much work to do on improving her jumps to get GOE.
    I don't believe that Julia would make the team based on GOE from jumps just totally benefit from the frequent collapses of both Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva. So if all three of them went to Euros and Liza did so badly in the SP she didn't make the free skate or placed below 10th then I would think she goes to Sochi! If Sotnikova misses 2 out of 3 flips which she has done and flutzes and urs and falls then Julia can beat her too. No one is talking about what Sotnikova is doing to fix her flips or what her programs will look like and if she decides two flutzes is better than maybe 2 flips in a FS. When Liza and Adelina and Julia all compete together Julia could easily wind up winning or getting the highest score because of Adelina and Liza's tremendous and continuing problems which really are worse than any Julia problem that one could think of.

  12. #57
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    No one knows how Julia will skate this year. She's at that age when Adelina and Tuk started to really struggle.

  13. #58
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    Doesn't matter. Two battle-hardened Russian women will make it out of the war, and at least one of them will contend for the podium.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    No one knows how Julia will skate this year. She's at that age when Adelina and Tuk started to really struggle.
    No one really knows how Liza or Adelina will skate either! Lol all that is there to predict are their last performances of last season and Julia was the best. If Julia struggles Liza and Adelina could struggle worse for whatever reason on top of their already existing problems.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Serious Business View Post
    Doesn't matter. Two battle-hardened Russian women will make it out of the war, and at least one of them will contend for the podium.
    It would be good if age eligible skaters provide the good competition and not ineligible ones! Because being beaten by radionova wouldn't mean anything! She's not eligible!

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