The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

gmyers said:

Liza was 14th in the sp at 2013 worlds! Now that was safely in the qualifying zone for the fs but really horrible and one jump mistake more and it's possible she could miss a lp with her sp disasters. I mean when someone has as many sp disasters as Liza it may lead to not getting to a fs!

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Especially with the higher standard the minimum TES has created. Don't you remember watching the first group of ladies in the FS at Worlds and thinking, why are the skaters ranked 18-24th this good? Simanckova landed 6 triples in her FS and was the 2nd skater of the night! Plus Liza's 54 points for that SP was generous and the last few qualifiers for the FS scored around 50 points so that's perilously close..

drivingmissdaisy said:

Julai's personal bests are 64 and 123, while Carolina's best from 2011/12 were 69 and 132, so I'm not sure how that is "about the same." Furthermore, Julai's jumps are much weaker now then they were in 2011/12, so I'm not sure why you think marks from two seasons ago are a better reflection of her form than her marks from last season.

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Julia's personal best is 187.05 (WJC-2012), Carolina's 189.94 (Worlds-2012).

At JGP Events Julia had 172.51 and 183.05.
At GP Events Carolina had 177.35 and 182.14.

If seeing total scores (SP+FS), difference is not so significant. Especially if remember that score of Senior program is 2.5-3 points higher than Junior because of one more element.

What will Julia's state at season 2013/2014, we don't know. May be good.

gmyers said:

This is MOSTLY exactly it! Julia could get to Sochi and be clean and place 15th or something?

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If clean skating, 15th place is impossible. She is 12th of Season Best at 2012/2013 season, with not so clean skating. So she may be at 4-6 place if skating more clean.

gmyers said:

Julias 2a/3t/2t got +3 from some judges in 2013 jr worlds. Her jumps are not weaker. From 2012 jr worlds to 2013 jr worlds judges gave her goe for that combo!

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This is a list of GOE that Julia received for her 2A+3T+2T combo.

2A+3T+2T
2012 WJC:0.90
2012 Finlandia Trophy:0.82
2012 CoC:-1.50
2012 TEB:-0.20
2013 RJN:0.90
2013 WJC:1.10

As you can see here, most of her high +GOEs came from junior competitions.

I'm wondering if judges would be willing to give 2s and 3s for Julia's 2A+3T+2T after seeing Yuna and Gracie's jumps at SC, assuming that it was good as one from WJC.

drivingmissdaisy said:

My biggest concern for Adelina is that I am not sure Tatiana Tarasova is the right choreographer to give Sotnikova winning programs. Mao's 2010 programs were a disaster and far too heavy for an airy skater like Mao. Adelina's SP was good, but her LP was awful last year and I think it cost her a Euros title. As far as her jumps, I think Adelina is always going to be hit-or-miss as long as she has a problem losing focus during her programs.

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Tarasova is not making any of the programs for Adelina this season. I think it was reported that Chernyshev will be choreographing two programs for Adelina (and probably Kovtun too, I don't remember).

AlexRus said:

Julia's personal best is 187.05 (WJC-2012), Carolina's 189.94 (Worlds-2012).

At JGP Events Julia had 172.51 and 183.05.
At GP Events Carolina had 177.35 and 182.14.

If seeing total scores (SP+FS), difference is not so significant. Especially if remember that score of Senior program is 2.5-3 points higher than Junior because of one more element.

What will Julia's state at season 2013/2014, we don't know. May be good.

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Well, Caro scored 194.71 at Euros and 197.89 at Worlds this season...

FSGMT said:

Well, Caro scored 194.71 at Euros and 197.89 at Worlds this season...

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I think AlexRus meant personal best(or season best) from 2011-2012 season

vera01 said:

I think AlexRus meant personal best(or season best) from 2011-2012 season

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Oh, thank you

FSGMT said:

Well, Caro scored 194.71 at Euros and 197.89 at Worlds this season...

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I compared Julia and Carolina at Julia's best season - 2011/2012.

Julia had poor season 2012/2013, she understands it and told it at interview.
"Season so bad that I want to forget it, but to leave the got experience. Very necessary experience..."
http://fsrussia.ru/news/488_yuliya-...zhka-hotelos-smeyatsya-i-plakat-odnovremenno/ (Russian)

Her next season may be much better.

silverlake22 said:

Yeah keep dreaming. Gold could beat all those girls but all of them could also very feasibly beat her as well. Korpi's PCS are huge when she just manages to stand up, Osmond and Gao can give her a run for her money too, totally clean, Gracie should beat those two, but all it would take would be a few mistakes from Gracie and a couple of very strong skates from one or both of those girls for Gold to be overtaken. The same goes for Lipnitskaya. Last season, all of Osmond, Gao, and Lipnitskaya were more consistent than Gold, so even though Gold gets better GOE when she lands her jumps cleanly, she doesn't have much if any of a PCS cushion on any of these girls that her GOE margin can easily be eaten up with a few mistakes, which puts her in vulnerable territory considering those 3 (or at least 2 - Osmond is a toss-up) are a lot less error-prone than she is.

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I get you don't like Gold, but seriously? Are you for real? Gold spent last fall figuring out how to compete on the big stage (Seniors) and determining what her rock solid content was going to be in Senior ladies. She tried some of the most ridiculously hard content (a 3Lz+3T AND a 3F+1Lo+3S in the LP with a full set of triples minus Axel AND a different 3+3 in the SP) and while she CAN do all this, the 3+1+3 wasn't solid enough and sapped too much energy for her to skate a clean LP in the fall and working both the 3Lz and 3F combos was taking too much mental energy (along with learning to deal with the jitters of Senior ladies). She laid down one of the greatest LPs in history at Nationals after burying herself in the SP to move herself onto the World team (deservedly). Yes, she skated not her best at 4CC, just a week later, but at Worlds, while she made enough mistakes to keep her from being close to the big 3 she showed a lot of guts and toughness to get herself seeded in the fall's GPS in her first Senior season. What American ladies have finished that high or higher in their first Senior Championship? I can think of 2 in the last 30 years: Cohen (4th, 2002 Olympics) and Yamaguchi (6th, 1989 Worlds). I expect she's going to come out much more consistent and confident this season based on her growth and learning last season and that will mean she gets it together.

silverlake22 said:

Yeah keep dreaming. Gold could beat all those girls but all of them could also very feasibly beat her as well. Korpi's PCS are huge when she just manages to stand up, Osmond and Gao can give her a run for her money too, totally clean, Gracie should beat those two, but all it would take would be a few mistakes from Gracie and a couple of very strong skates from one or both of those girls for Gold to be overtaken. The same goes for Lipnitskaya. Last season, all of Osmond, Gao, and Lipnitskaya were more consistent than Gold, so even though Gold gets better GOE when she lands her jumps cleanly, she doesn't have much if any of a PCS cushion on any of these girls that her GOE margin can easily be eaten up with a few mistakes, which puts her in vulnerable territory considering those 3 (or at least 2 - Osmond is a toss-up) are a lot less error-prone than she is.

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I beg your pardon? I'm sorry if my post upset you, but you're restating exactly what I just said -- Gold CAN be beat by any of the following. Is it likely? Not if you're going by PB (which is the only logical method of comparison, IMO). Gold's PB, achieved at WTT, is over TEN POINTS higher than Korpi's, Gao's, Lipnitskaia's, and Osmond's -- and that was with, as you say, "a few mistakes," including a fall, edge calls on the 3F, and a doubled 3S. Suzuki's PB is more than 10 points higher than Gold's, so it makes sense that she has a good chance of surpassing Gold on the GP.

Additionally, Gold is attempting (and landing!) some of the hardest jumps in the ladies' discipline. Who, other than Yuna Kim, has a better 3Lz-3T (in BOTH programs, no less)? How many ladies have the stamina and strength to make it through a seven-triple FS? Gold was solid, if not perfect, at Worlds. She was a debut senior with a season of inconsistency behind her, and she finished sixth with multiple mistakes. SIXTH. Every lady who placed ahead of her has been in the senior ranks for at least three seasons. In fact, if you add up the points that Gold lost across both Worlds performances, she would have edged Kanako for fourth. She was also one-half of the ladies' team that regained America's three spots for the first time in, what, five seasons?

A "few mistakes" from Gracie also received 184+ at Worlds and 188+ at WTT, which is much higher than what any of the above have managed (except Suzuki, as always). She's right on the cusp of breaking 190 internationally (188.03 at WTT + 2.90 from the salchow + 2.10 from the fall on the 3-3 + 1.60 from the two flips = 194.63, and that's not including GOE on those elements).

In fact, let's consider GOE. A clean 3-3 from Gracie can get +1.40 GOE. Her clean flip is comparable to her clean Lutz, around +0.50 GOE (multiply by 2 for both segments). Let's assume her clean salchow can net +0.50 GOE (probably lowballing). 194.63 + 1.40 + 1.00 + 0.50 = 197.53. My goodness, but that's a huge score, and that's not even considering the PCS increase she'd receive for skating completely clean.

Even with the skates of their lives, I'm not sure that Korpi, Lipnitskaia, or Gao could pull that off. I'd give Osmond better odds than the rest, if she starts getting it together in the FS.

There's no need to be abrasive about this issue; no "dreaming" need happen when I have the protocols right in front of me. I understand that you're not a big fan of Gracie Gold, but distorting or plain ignoring the facts to promote your favorites is a poor method of debate. Now, if you want to have a LOGICAL argument about Gold's chances on the GP, I'll be more than happy to engage you.

ETA: I suggest you derive some knowledge from mskater93, who actually trains at Gracie's rink.

AlexRus said:

I compared Julia and Carolina at Julia's best season - 2011/2012.

Julia had poor season 2012/2013, she understands it and told it at interview.
"Season so bad that I want to forget it, but to leave the got experience. Very necessary experience..."
http://fsrussia.ru/news/488_yuliya-...zhka-hotelos-smeyatsya-i-plakat-odnovremenno/ (Russian)

Her next season may be much better.

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Well, just because she didn't like her results this season doesn't mean they don't matter. What indication is there that next season will be better aside from she wants to forget last season?

Really, I won't be surprised if Gracie ends up being 4th at the Olympics/World Champion at next Worlds.

Mirai did it, Kimmie did it-why can't Gracie?

I think the biggest question marks are over the girls who are heading into their second senior season (Gracie, Julia, Kaetlyn, Zijun, etc.). A lot of them will be experiencing both physical and mental shifts. It's a tough time and a lot of the time skaters have very rough seasons. Most recently we can look at Liza T and Adelina. Liza T won both of her GPs her debut season but struggled most of this season...Adelina had a decent debut (two bronze medals) but also struggled a lot more this season...

The sophomore slump is really tough to navigate through but I have...I won't say high but...elevated hopes for most of them. Now that they've had a season to acclimated themselves to this thing called senior level skating, there will be no more "oh she's getting used to it/it's a learning experience" excuses. The learning curve is very steep this year...they have to take all of the experience they gained last season and apply it to this very tough, very competitive, very pressure-filled Olympic season.

I highly doubt all of them will make it through this unscathed but I do take comfort in knowing we'll probably see all of these girls in the seasons to come.

drivingmissdaisy said:

Well, just because she didn't like her results this season doesn't mean they don't matter. What indication is there that next season will be better aside from she wants to forget last season?

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How she ended her first senior season at jr worlds! It was just flat out good skating.

silverlake22 said:

Especially with the higher standard the minimum TES has created. Don't you remember watching the first group of ladies in the FS at Worlds and thinking, why are the skaters ranked 18-24th this good? Simanckova landed 6 triples in her FS and was the 2nd skater of the night! Plus Liza's 54 points for that SP was generous and the last few qualifiers for the FS scored around 50 points so that's perilously close..

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She's got to be careful and fix the SP problem! She's in a danger zone!

AlexRus said:

If clean skating, 15th place is impossible. She is 12th of Season Best at 2012/2013 season, with not so clean skating. So she may be at 4-6 place if skating more clean.

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Well 15th was an exaggeration about her skating well but not really placing well! It was just a way to say that! She is also a GPF finalist! She pulled out for injury but was a GPF finalist.

vera01 said:

This is a list of GOE that Julia received for her 2A+3T+2T combo.

2A+3T+2T
2012 WJC:0.90
2012 Finlandia Trophy:0.82
2012 CoC:-1.50
2012 TEB:-0.20
2013 RJN:0.90
2013 WJC:1.10

As you can see here, most of her high +GOEs came from junior competitions.

I'm wondering if judges would be willing to give 2s and 3s for Julia's 2A+3T+2T after seeing Yuna and Gracie's jumps at SC, assuming that it was good as one from WJC.

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There are two issues! One is that at Russian nationals and Euros it really wont matter because Yuna and Gracie wont be at Russian nationals or Euros. Liza even was able to get 60+ PCS and Euros so I am sure at Euros Julia could get great GOE on jumps if she does jumps well like was shown at 2013 jr worlds.

gmyers said:

Liza was 14th in the sp at 2013 worlds! Now that was safely in the qualifying zone for the fs but really horrible and one jump mistake more and it's possible she could miss a lp with her sp disasters. I mean when someone has as many sp disasters as Liza it may lead to not getting to a fs!

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Yes, she had a bad SP, and still made the FS comfortably. You are saying that there are 24 - I think 24 is the cutoff point? - European ladies who could beat her at Euros, which is what it takes for her not to make the FS. I think that you've repeated things like "bomb" and "extreme mess" so many times that you've lost perspective. With all due respect.

Yes, she might not make the FP at Euros'. And it could happen that, as I walk past, a flower pot from somebody's open window fell out and landed squarely on my head. It's possible. However, I do not give much thought to such an eventuality, nor do I plan for it.

silverlake22 said:

Especially with the higher standard the minimum TES has created. Don't you remember watching the first group of ladies in the FS at Worlds and thinking, why are the skaters ranked 18-24th this good? Simanckova landed 6 triples in her FS and was the 2nd skater of the night! Plus Liza's 54 points for that SP was generous and the last few qualifiers for the FS scored around 50 points so that's perilously close..

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The discussion was about Euros originally - the post that started the discussion

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/sh...d-the-Olympics&p=747686&viewfull=1#post747686

had gmyers saying: "if all three of them went to Euros and Liza did so badly in the SP she didn't make the free skate ", which was what I was responding to. The post you responded to was gmyers response to me.

So, no, I don't think Liza is in any danger of not making the FP at Euros. Gmyers mileage obviously does vary - as might yours, but I just thought I'd put you into the situation, and where the discussion originated.

In the grand scheme of things the only PCS that will matter is when you put all of the skaters in a lineup and judge them:

Obviously Yu-Na and Carolina are the top two PCS getters (70+) followed by Mao (68-70)

There is a massive gap b/w those three and the rest of the field.

Then there are the mid to low 60s skaters: Akiko, Ashley, Kanako, Kiira

The 58-60 range: Adelina, Kaetlyn, Gracie, Mirai, Zijun

Then the 57 and lower range: Julia, Liza T, Christina, Agnes, Elene G., Valentina, Lacoste, etc.

I think those numbers fluctuate slightly (either up or down) depending on how the skater performs but for the most part, this is the range for each of the skaters.

LRK said:

Yes, she had a bad SP, and still made the FS comfortably. You are saying that there are 24 - I think 24 is the cutoff point? - European ladies who could beat her at Euros, which is what it takes for her not to make the FS. I think that you've repeated things like "bomb" and "extreme mess" so many times that you've lost perspective. With all due respect.

Yes, she might not make the FP at Euros'. And it could happen that, as I walk past, a flower pot from somebody's open window fell out and landed squarely on my head. It's possible. However, I do not give much thought to such an eventuality, nor do I plan for it.

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I said she safely made the sp at worlds and would have been even safer at euros but I also did add that if addition to the mistakes she made at worlds she had another jump issue it might have been a risk! Messing up a spin and singling an axel is what she did but what if addition to that there was a gpf style error that she's made?

gmyers said:

How she ended her first senior season at jr worlds! It was just flat out good skating.

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So... one competition in which she couldn't even beat Elena R and all of a sudden she's as good as she's ever been?