The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics.... | Page 9 | Golden Skate

The rest of the top 12 ladies and the Olympics....

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Liza won Elena R. at SrNats-2013 because of really excellent Liza's FS. Adelina has score of these SrNats only 0.51 lower than Elena.

It was very close at Russian nationals but I don't think it would've been at the end.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
This is true, but I mean towards the proposition another year would give the younger ones times to catch up. The judges wont be open to a total changing of the guard until after the Olympics are over. The younger ones had the chance to establish themselves the new World order this quad while Kim was away or not skating well, Asada was struggling and Kostner was lutzless, and failed. It is too late now, the best one can do at the upcoming Olympics is a bronze with a lights out skate. Their time is after the Olympics.

The younger ones never really had time to establish themselves for Sochi compared to past Olympics. Gracie, Liza and Adelina will only have had one Worlds appearance under their belts before the Olympics unlike in the past. For some like Liza and Adelina they were to young and Gracie wasn't even really a footnote just two years ago. Not that it would have mattered much because this Olympics will see the defending Gold and Silver medalist returning which i don't think has ever happened along with a strong veteran like Kostner. I can't remember the last time that there is no newcomer that's a favorite to at least make the podium. Even Ashley isn't really a newcomer.
 

vera01

Final Flight
Joined
Jan 6, 2013
My whole point was in not comparing the scores but the skates Adelina and liza had at worlds vs the one julia had at jr worlds. I don't see how anyone could say Julia wouldn't Have beaten both Adelina and Liza if they were all the same competition. Because with julia almost winning her event and Adelina and Julia bombing theirs I think it's obvious.

Sr Worlds this year was much more competitive than Jr.Worlds, so there's no use in comparing results from Jr Worlds to Senior Worlds.

Do you think Julia would've done well enough to bring 3 spots to Team Russia if she competed at senior Worlds??
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
The younger ones never really had time to establish themselves for Sochi compared to past Olympics. Gracie, Liza and Adelina will only have had one Worlds appearance under their belts before the Olympics unlike in the past. For some like Liza and Adelina they were to young and Gracie wasn't even really a footnote just two years ago. Not that it would have mattered much because this Olympics will see the defending Gold and Silver medalist returning which i don't think has ever happened along with a strong veteran like Kostner.

This is true. I dont agree with the new age rules at all. Had they been in place we would have never heard of Tara Lipinski or Oksana Baiul. Then again I dont think there is a phenom from this age group who would have reached the top by Sochi regardless, especialy as you said with the strongest veterans staying in.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
Personal best PCS of Jilia - 57.43, earned at 2012/2013 (GP Event). Why can not it be higher at next season?
Personal best PCS of Liza - 61.65, earned also at 2012/2013 (Euro).

Both have progress in PCS season to season.


Those were more averages than exact numbers. From Julia's two GPs she earned 57.43 (COC) and 57.04 (TEB). As I said in my post, those numbers can fluctuate depending on how the skater performs but on average, Julia's range is probably low to mid 50s on the low end and around 60 on the high end.

Gao has received PCS over 57 as well, and included in the higher bracket is Mirai, who did not break 60 for PCS this season but has in the past and likely could again with a really good skate.

Internationally, Christina's highest PCS score was 57.88 (4CC) but she got as low as 51 (GPF). I definitely think she's capable of scoring higher but I don't know if she has internationally. As for Mirai, her highest this season was 59.14 (NHK) but she's definitely capable of a 60...
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Sr Worlds this year was much more competitive than Jr.Worlds, so there's no use in comparing results from Jr Worlds to Senior Worlds.

Do you think Julia would've done well enough to bring 3 spots to Team Russia if she competed at senior Worlds??

Julia has super consistency going for her. Her Finlandia scores indicate she could take 4th over Murakami perhaps if she skates her best, which she often does; and that would have been enough for 3 spots possibly. The how low Julia would place if all skated clean talks are meaningless since most of the girls skate nowhere near clean typically, even in an average to above average performance for them. Her strength is a bad competition for her is 1 or 2 mistakes. In contrast to Sotnikova who a good competition is 4 or 5 mistakes.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
This is true, but I mean towards the proposition another year would give the younger ones times to catch up. The judges wont be open to a total changing of the guard until after the Olympics are over. The younger ones had the chance to establish themselves the new World order this quad while Kim was away or not skating well, Asada was struggling and Kostner was lutzless, and failed. It is too late now, the best one can do at the upcoming Olympics is a bronze with a lights out skate. Their time is after the Olympics.
Yes, it is most probable.
But Kosther and Asada are not absolutely stable (and sometimes really unstable).
If one of them will make mistakes at Olympics, some other skater (who? I don't know, ladies are so unpredictable) may have the podium (bronse).
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
All of those skaters have beaten Gold, so I don't see why it is so inconceivable to suggest that they can do so again. In fact, Gold has never beaten Lipnitskaya or Korpi and lost to Suzuki 3 of the 4 times she faced her last season. Gold isn't exactly the model of consistency, so it's not unthinkable that she will have another meltdown skate. I am still not convinced that she has conquered her nerves and is any good at skating when anything is on the line. If Gold lands her jumps, she should be on the podium at her two Grand Prix events, even though she is skating to music that is all wrong for her as a skater. But that is a big if. She drew two tough fields at her Grand Prix events. She will have to face Kim, Suzuki, Lipnitskaya, Korpi, Osmond, Gao, and Leonova at Skate Canada. And Asada, Suzuki, Radionova, Li, Leonova, Nagasu, etc. at NHK Trophy. So, I don't think it's outlandish to suggest that she will finish off the podium at her events should she have another one of her nervous, error-filled skates. In fact, her poor short programs could easily bury her at both of her events.

Look at Gold's PB. Then look at the PB of the other skaters. The math doesn't lie. Didn't I repeatedly say that Suzuki has a good chance of beating Gold, and that it CAN happen with all of the others as well? As for Lipnitskaia and Korpi, Gold has faced both of them once -- that's not a lot of a data to extrapolate from (and what Jammers said about experience, etc). Gold has grown tremendously as a skater since 2012 JWC and 2012 CoR.

Yuna Kim has been beat by Miki Ando and Fumie Suguri before, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it to happen again. Nor do I feel that Korpi, Lipnitskaia, Osmond, Gao, Leonova, Radionova, or Li pose significant challenges to Gold at this point.

You don't think that a lot was on the line at Worlds, when she could have imploded and finished out of the top ten? And have you already heard/seen Gold's new free skate? Because if you have, I'd be more than happy to listen to your perception of how it's "all wrong for her."
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
This is true. I dont agree with the new age rules at all. Had they been in place we would have never heard of Tara Lipinski or Oksana Baiul. Then again I dont think there is a phenom from this age group who would have reached the top by Sochi regardless, especialy as you said with the strongest veterans staying in.
Tara Lipinski and Oksana Baiul both were Worlds Champions just before they won Olympics.
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Gracies biggest enemy at this point is herself. She needs to stop trying to be perfect. It never worked for Sasha either.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
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May 19, 2011
I'm going to have to reserve my opinion about Gracie until next season b/c she's still 100% hit or miss IMO.

I can admit she held herself together at worlds but that's all she did...hold herself together. That doesn't give me a lot of confidence heading into next season if the best I can hope for is that she holds herself together during competitions. She had two flawed but steady performances at worlds, so definitely kudos there...but then she turned right back around and was back to being 50/50 at WTT: fall in the SP, great FS. She's a box of chocolates...you never know what you're going to get when she steps out onto the ice.

I have very little confidence in her nerves/consistency right now. I say I'll reserve judgment until I see how she starts this upcoming season. The hope is that she's made strides in terms of her presentation, artistry, interpretation and ability to perform...but I'm also hoping she finds some consistency with her performances.

Seesaw skaters are very annoying and seesaw skaters with as much talent as Gracie has are downright infuriating...
 

Jammers

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 4, 2010
Country
United-States
Tara Lipinski and Oksana Baiul both were Worlds Champions just before they won Olympics.

To be honest i think they both came along at a time when their wasn't a lot of depth in Ladies skating. Oksana came along right after the Olympics and really with the exception of Michelle who else was really good around 1997? Chen was in decline Bobek slacked off and Irina and Maria were not contenders yet.
 

mskater93

Record Breaker
Joined
Oct 22, 2005
Gracies biggest enemy at this point is herself. She needs to stop trying to be perfect. It never worked for Sasha either.

I don't know if it's trying to be perfect or trying too hard to prove what she's able to do (LOOK at this -- oops!) or getting too jazzed up and overusing her adrenaline, but yes, she's her own biggest enemy. I truly believe that narrowing her focus to 3Lz+3T (x2) and 2A+3T along with improving her IN, CH and PE instead of 3Lz+3T, 3F+3T, and 3F+1Lo+3S and maybe getting around at some point to work on her soft skills after she does all the above will improve her consistency. I know other than trying to generate a buzz of her amazing athleticism, I didn't understand "the throw crap at the wall" technical approach last season and felt that this was very bad strategy. BUT, I am not a fly on the wall when she and her team plan for the year...
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Skaters develop at their own pace and Gracie had a rough first year as a Junior with nerves and growth spurts. I'm glad she wasn't a 13 year old jumping bean that was overhyped it allowed her to improve on her jumps and make her ready to take the next steps in her skating. Now she can focus on the rest of her skills to become a better all-around skater. And 16 isn't young to still be a Junior skater. We've gotten used to the next big thing dominated Juniors at 13-14 and two years later they are already on decline.

Thanks! I don't really follow juniors, so I was genuinely curious. Otherwise, I of course know that things can differ from skater to skater due to various circumstances - for instance, I believe this will be Max Aaron's first GP season? Personally, I think people are far too quick to "write off" skaters, and generally based on the latest competitions, even though we all know things can vary from season to season, early to late season, and even competition to competition. I don't tend to "write off" skaters that easily - I'm a Brian fan, after all. ;) But, I realise I'm getting far from the topic at hand and into general matters. Sorry about that. :)
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
I don't know if it's trying to be perfect or trying too hard to prove what she's able to do (LOOK at this -- oops!) or getting too jazzed up and overusing her adrenaline, but yes, she's her own biggest enemy. I truly believe that narrowing her focus to 3Lz+3T (x2) and 2A+3T along with improving her IN, CH and PE instead of 3Lz+3T, 3F+3T, and 3F+1Lo+3S and maybe getting around at some point to work on her soft skills after she does all the above will improve her consistency. I know other than trying to generate a buzz of her amazing athleticism, I didn't understand "the throw crap at the wall" technical approach last season and felt that this was very bad strategy. BUT, I am not a fly on the wall when she and her team plan for the year...

Which is exceedingly good, if they are still busy throwing crap at it. ;) Sorry, couldn't resist - I don't mean to mock, I just thought it was a funny image. :)
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Gracies biggest enemy at this point is herself. She needs to stop trying to be perfect. It never worked for Sasha either.

Gracie does remind me of a young Sasha in many ways -- immensely talented, but inconsistent due to perfectionism.

She needs to compete over the summer ... a lot. Preferably in bigger events than Skate Milwaukee (read: internationally), but then again, I don't know what her plans are. I'm optimistic about her prospects, though. As kwanatic said, you never know what you're going to get with Gracie, but one of her many redeeming factors is that she's still capable of scoring reasonably high when she makes mistakes -- 60+ at WTT with a fall, for example.
 
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
Country
Russia
how come that was only Gracie's second international competition? For a junior, 16 is fairly "old", is it not?
Gracie started skating just before she was 8, i.e. very old for beginning.
So she had good results being elder than others.
Her first really good result was at Skate Detroit at July 2011. She did not take place in Nationals-2011 (did not qualify), so she had (because of Skate Detroit) only one, 7th JGP Event at 2011. She won this Event, but it was last JGP Event and to give her one more JGP Event was impossible.
After that she won Nationals-2012 at Junior level and earned spot to JrWorlds.
So JrWorlds-2012 was her second International.

It is normal that for talented young skaters JrWorlds is 4th International Event (after two JGP Events and JGP Final). It would be so for Gracie if USFS would send her to earlier JGP Event, not last - she would have one more JGP Event and most probably JGP Final.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
Julia has super consistency going for her. Her Finlandia scores indicate she could take 4th over Murakami perhaps if she skates her best, which she often does; and that would have been enough for 3 spots possibly. The how low Julia would place if all skated clean talks are meaningless since most of the girls skate nowhere near clean typically, even in an average to above average performance for them. Her strength is a bad competition for her is 1 or 2 mistakes. In contrast to Sotnikova who a good competition is 4 or 5 mistakes.

Julia competed to the best of her ability at Finlandia, and then declined by the time the Grand Prix rolled around, losing to Mao, Ashley, and Liza -- so I would disagree with those who say that she can consistently be competitive with the best in the world. I don't think that she poses a serious threat to Murakami, who is more polished by several orders of magnitude (UR's or not). However, 2013 Junior Worlds was a poor representation of Julia's current level, since she was still recovering from a concussion and time away from training.

We've yet to see where she's at, technically and artistically, this season. Who knows? She could end up surprising us.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
To be honest i think they both came along at a time when their wasn't a lot of depth in Ladies skating. Oksana came along right after the Olympics and really with the exception of Michelle who else was really good around 1997? Chen was in decline Bobek slacked off and Irina and Maria were not contenders yet.

Tara won US Nationals and Worlds in 1997, didn't she?
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
out of all the newbies
Gracie will have the chance to spoil Oly silver or bronze
Ashley would be lucky to get into top 8th, she is NOT the No.1 us lady , that spot only belongs to Gracie
Wagner has passed her peak, that's it . done
 
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