The Quadruple Jump for the Ladies in Sochi

gkelly said:

With factored placements, often a skater with a mistake in the short had no chance of catching a skater ahead of them unless the other skaters finished in just the right order. Which means that the skater did not "control her own destiny" and "needed help" to pass the leader.

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I think this is a psychological issue only, based on the fact that these events unfold in time. I actual fact, after the smoke has cleared, what's wrong with this?

Scenario 1.

Michelle 1. 3
Irina 2, 2
Sarah 4. 1

Sarah wins.

Scenario 2.

Michelle 1, 2
Irina 2, 3
Sarah 4, 1

Michelle wins.

One might point out that in the first scenario Sarah won because Irina beat Michelle, while in the second Sarah lost because Michelle beat Irina. But so what? Just look at the overall placements. In the first scenario Sarah won because she had 4 and 1 against Michelle's 1 and 3. In the second scenario Michelle won because she had 1 and 2 against Sarah's 4 and 1.

That's all. You skate two programs, best factored placements for the two combined wins.

Mathman said:

I think this is a psychological issue only, based on the fact that these events unfold in time. I actual fact, after the smoke has cleared, what's wrong with this?

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Impossible to say, without looking at the quality of the skating in each program, or at least the difference in scores (and ordinals, in 6.0 examples) within each program, which get thrown out under factored placements.

The question is, should margin of victory count at all, and if so, should it be measured in terms of the relative quality of skating?

Here are a couple of scenarios.

If you were designing a system from scratch, how would you want to handle the way results from two programs are combined?

Scenario 1

Allie skates a clean SP and melts down in the LP with only 2 successful triple jumps
Babs skates a clean 2nd-place SP with the same jumps as Allie; she then also skates a clean 2nd place LP with a full complement of jumps
Candy makes one big mistake in the SP (popped first jump of the combination, no second jump); Candy then goes on to skate a clean freeskate and edge out Babs to win the free

So who was better across two programs, Babs or Candy?

At a Grand Prix event, the standings are

Candy 3, 1
Babs 2, 2
Allie 1, 3
Kate 4, 3

Babs was the only one to skate two clean programs, but because of the small field Candy's SP disaster didn't prevent her from controlling her own destiny, so a narrow win over Babs in the free gave Candy the gold and Babs has to settle for silver.

Scenario 2
Allie skates a clean SP and melts down in the LP with only 2 successful triple jumps
Babs skates a clean 2nd-place SP with the same jumps as Allie; she then also skates a clean 2nd place LP with a full complement of jumps
Candy makes one big mistake in the SP (popped first jump of the combination, no second jump); Candy then goes on to skate a clean freeskate and edge out Babs to win the free

Exact same performances, exact same placements relative to each other in each program. But this time they're at Worlds and there are more skaters in the mix, so not only doesn't Candy win gold, she doesn't get any medal at all:

Babs 2, 2
Delia 4, 3
Emma 3, 4
Candy 7, 1
Allie 1, 7
Flossie 5, 6
etc.

^ That's an interesting example. Under CoP Babs wins both scenarios, Candy being unable to recover from her one mistake in the short program.

Using factored placements Candy benefits from the small field. To isolate the question, I think the crucial scenario is the one with only two competitors. Babs wins the SP by a big margin, Candy wins the LP by a small margin. In fact, in this case there is no reason to skate the short program at all. Whoever wins the long program automatically wins the gold.

To me, the conclusion is that factored placements do not work very well if the field is too small. I think this is intuitively obvious, though. There should probably be at least six competitors for ordinal judging to display its merit.

Mathman said:

There should probably be at least six competitors for ordinal judging to display its merit.

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Again, we're not talking about ordinal judging here. We're talking about whether the results of the separate phases of the competition are combined by adding up the total scores of the two programs or by factored placements -- which could be used even if the results of each separate program are determined by IJS scoring. (There could also be other methods, such as those used for team events when combining the results of several different skaters on the same team.)

Factored placements only apply to events that have more than one phase of competition, irrespective of how the results of each phase are determined.

Ordinal judging refers to the calculations used to determine the results of a single competition phase. Once the results of a competition phase are determined, the actual ordinals immediately become irrelevant.

There isn't a better way than factored placements to combine the results of several ordinal-scored phases into overall results. There was a different method prior to 1980-81, but it presented problems (including the difficulty of a superior freeskater making up ground against a superior figures skater, which is irrelevant now that figures are gone and the skill sets measured in the remaining competition phases are much more similar).

Mathman said:

In a relay race, it is true that the team that has the four fastest runners usually wins. But there is also the passing of the baton -- which has cost many a ream the victory. Likewise, in Hockey a team might get caught out in a line change.

A skating relay would go something like this. Each of the four skaters/teams would perform for one-and-a-half minutes, with an additional choreographed free-for-all (like a four-ring circus) at the end. The whole race would last seven-and-a-half minutes. The technical elements would be scored continuously (possibly with a factor to prevent the men from dominating the scoring). For the second mark things like "passing the baton" would be weighed in. Like, the dancers swirl off into the corner with a rotational dance lift, to be replaced with the entry of the pairs in a ta-da star lift (all supported by the music, of course). The lady would glide off in an Ina Bauer just as the man leaped onto the ice with a triple Axel. The finale would be like a "choreograph sequence" in that the elements wouldn't be scored per se but rather just with respect to their contribution to the whole.

It would still be the case that the team whose individual members did the hardest jumps would have the advantage. But what if they dropped the baton?

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Hah, this doesn't seem like a competition so much as a circus, lol. I agree with the transitional stage being interesting, but it seems awfully weird, considering that the skaters in a relay race are all performing the same thing, and passing a baton itself is a physical transition, and not a creative one. It would really rely on all members of the team sharing the same level of interpretation and skating skills. For some countries that have no strong singles skaters or ones with no strong pair/ice dancers, a performance like that can look really awkward. Not to mention trying to get the training time to make a performance like that look good must be a logistical nightmare considering everyone trains in different areas, lol. A neat thought, but one better saved for exhibitions.

christinaskater said:

Rumour has it that 2 top skaters are practicing a quad jump.

In the past, Surya, Sasha and Miki have done the most difficult of jumps, with Miki, being the only one to get full credit.


Who among the ladies' do you reckon could do this in Sochi?


I think Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, Gracie Gold & Mao Asada are capable of this currently.

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Not good for the men if quad quickly becomes a "lady's jump".

Bluebonnet said:

Not good for the men if quad quickly becomes a "lady's jump".

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"You know what? I think I have the ability to do a quad jump. Maybe I should start trying it; oh wait, but if I do a quad, then that means it's bad news for the men if I can actually do it and they can't. On second thought, maybe I shouldn't. I'll just stick to triple jumps."

Heaven forbid a situation like that ever happen. If a lady is capable of it, I say go for it.

Bluebonnet said:

Not good for the men if quad quickly becomes a "lady's jump".

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It's funny because some of the men can't even land a decent triple axel. Mao Asada at Vancouver showed up and showed out how to land THREE solid triple axels. Chan couldn't even land it properly without falling on his *** these past couple of seasons, among a few. If a lady starts laying down quads, then the men better get in shape because they are catching up.

However at the moment, because of the incessant underrotation calls with just about everyone, it's a little bleak for the ladies to be doing it. But I agree with Dave Lease- Kanako Murakami looks like she can go for a quad toe in the future when all is well and adjusted.

christinaskater said:

Rumour has it that 2 top skaters are practicing a quad jump.

In the past, Surya, Sasha and Miki have done the most difficult of jumps, with Miki, being the only one to get full credit.


Who among the ladies' do you reckon could do this in Sochi?


I think Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Miki Ando, Gracie Gold & Mao Asada are capable of this currently.

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The think is Mao's 3S and 3T aren't the most reliable triples for her, and she already has problems rotating her 3F, so I can't imagine a quad she'd be capable of.

I think Murakami and Gold are capable of quads. But Murakami is more of a "distance" jumper"... I think that's the problem with ladies trying to do a quad... you need to be a supremely fast rotater, but you also need that spring. Many struggle to fully rotate triples so a quad is quite ambitious.

I wonder if Courtney Hicks will get hers. She has good height on her jumps and has attempted the 4S (though not very close to landing it).

Murakami struggles to rotate a triple. How is she gonna even attempt a quad? ROFL

Plus, if a woman's going for a quad, she has to do that in a free skate because women aren't allowed to attempt a quad in a short program. Everyone should recall that a free skating has a total of seven jumping passes, and extremely difficult jumps such as a quad and a 3A really drain your energy out even when it is cheated to the max on takeoff and landing. The advantage a quadruple jump is pretty questionable if you consider everything that makes a four-minute performance. If you landed a quad but popped a 3Lz to a single, the BV advantage you had is gone.

It is not really worth it.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:

The think is Mao's 3S and 3T aren't the most reliable triples for her, and she already has problems rotating her 3F, so I can't imagine a quad she'd be capable of.

I think Murakami and Gold are capable of quads. But Murakami is more of a "distance" jumper"... I think that's the problem with ladies trying to do a quad... you need to be a supremely fast rotater, but you also need that spring. Many struggle to fully rotate triples so a quad is quite ambitious.

I wonder if Courtney Hicks will get hers. She has good height on her jumps and has attempted the 4S (though not very close to landing it).

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Actually, I thought Mao's most reliable triple was 3Lo... Wasn't that supposed to be her best jump?

I always think Kostner could have gotten the 4F if she really trains for it.

Just look at the speed, the height, and the distance. If she skates faster, and rotates a bit faster, she can squeeze another rotation in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WOf6-8lT9t0#t=94s

I don't see her getting any other quad.

Mao, slight chance at a 4Lo, but so unlikely because she could barely rotate her 3Lo now.

Murakami has no problem with her first 3T, and her first 3T is always explosive and huge, so I think she can get a 4T.

Yuna's best jump is 3Lz, so maybe she can go for 4Lz.

Murakami is a chronic triple underrotator, so it's out of the question that she could rotate a quad. Mao has become a chronic underrotator, particularly with her 3f and 3lo; her 3a is often not all the way around, so a quad seems impossible.

Men are better with 3a and quad because they have the upper body strength to get high enough to complete the rotations, and they don't have the rounded hips that tend to slow rotation.

Kostner trying to do the quad would probably end in disaster. If she fell on it it would probably take all the air out of her program and she'd be falling all over the place.

FlattFan said:

I always think Kostner could have gotten the 4F if she really trains for it.

Just look at the speed, the height, and the distance. If she skates faster, and rotates a bit faster, she can squeeze another rotation in.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=WOf6-8lT9t0#t=94s

I don't see her getting any other quad.

Mao, slight chance at a 4Lo, but so unlikely because she could barely rotate her 3Lo now.

Murakami has no problem with her first 3T, and her first 3T is always explosive and huge, so I think she can get a 4T.

Yuna's best jump is 3Lz, so maybe she can go for 4Lz.

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Kostner has one of the best 3F's of the women (and the men, even), but I can't imagine her being able to get a 4F (Dai's tried, and landed it in practice, but it's hard enough for the men, let alone Kostner).

Murakami's first 3T has excellent distance and she gets good spring on her 2nd 3T even if the rotation is off. I think combining the two might give her a chance at a quad. And to be realistic, pretty much any woman who tries a quad will risk under-rotating it, regardless of if they have UR issues or not.

No way Yu Na can get a 4Z. Mroz was able to land a 4Z and that's with extreme torque and height and literally powering through that jump. I can't imagine a woman getting the height and torque to do a 4Z. I think the most realistic one is a 4T (for those with good spring on their 3T) or 4S (for fast rotators).

I don't expect to see any quadruple jump from any ladies in Sochi 2014.

Quads are definitely a case of easier said than done.

If there were a jumps-only (or technical only-jumps primary) competition, then some of the best jumpers might focus their training to acquire new harder jumps, at the expense of other skills that go into skating successful programs.

If such an event came into existence, I think we would see some quad attempts from female skaters within a few years. But they would probably not be the same skaters who are contending for medals in the freeskating event.

Similarly, when we do next see a quad in a ladies' short program or long program context, I'm betting it will be from someone who is more of a jumper than a well-rounded skater, who may not be on the radar otherwise. (If it's a junior who benefits from the higher strength-to-weight ratio typical of younger teen girls, chances are she will lose the ability to rotate the quad as she matures to a senior, possibly medal-worthy, skater.)

aftertherain said:

"You know what? I think I have the ability to do a quad jump. Maybe I should start trying it; oh wait, but if I do a quad, then that means it's bad news for the men if I can actually do it and they can't. On second thought, maybe I shouldn't. I'll just stick to triple jumps."

Heaven forbid a situation like that ever happen. If a lady is capable of it, I say go for it.

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Of course the ladies should go for it if they can. It's more like "The ladies could do quad jumps regularly now. What the men want to do to seperate themselves from the ladies is to do the quintuple jumps."

TheCzar said:

It's funny because some of the men can't even land a decent triple axel. Mao Asada at Vancouver showed up and showed out how to land THREE solid triple axels. Chan couldn't even land it properly without falling on his *** these past couple of seasons, among a few. If a lady starts laying down quads, then the men better get in shape because they are catching up.

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I don't think Chan or Lambiel should feel any shame for that. They have quad jumps. Maybe you could say this to Jason Brown and Adam Rippon.

gkelly said:

I don't expect to see any quadruple jump from any ladies in Sochi 2014.

Quads are definitely a case of easier said than done.

If there were a jumps-only (or technical only-jumps primary) competition, then some of the best jumpers might focus their training to acquire new harder jumps, at the expense of other skills that go into skating successful programs.

If such an event came into existence, I think we would see some quad attempts from female skaters within a few years. But they would probably not be the same skaters who are contending for medals in the freeskating event.

Similarly, when we do next see a quad in a ladies' short program or long program context, I'm betting it will be from someone who is more of a jumper than a well-rounded skater, who may not be on the radar otherwise. (If it's a junior who benefits from the higher strength-to-weight ratio typical of younger teen girls, chances are she will lose the ability to rotate the quad as she matures to a senior, possibly medal-worthy, skater.)

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I bet a quad would come from a "ludmila nelidina" in all likelihood now. The thing is if a skater is looking at a medal or win they are less likely to ever do a quad or triple axel. Sasha Cohen was all I'm gonna do a quad salchow in my olympic free skate in slc!!! You're all gonna see me Do a quad salchow!! Then she was third in the sp and ZILCH!!!!

I clicked on this thread with excitement, and was titillated by christinaskater's OP. I was all aflutter with which of the benevolently sexist comments on the first page to select to respond to. Then, I thought I'd just summarize them: "Ladies can't do that. No way, no how. And even if they could, ladies need to be careful. They are delicate." (Apologies in advance for over-generalizing. It's the internet for heck's sake.)

I was also overwhelmed with the deep irony, since the very same arguments made in this thread against women attempting quads are typically (in my experience posting on GS) dismissed in the case of male skaters, for whom a quad is believed to be a necessity, regardless of risk of injury or the time training one takes away from other skills.

I was so glad (in a bittersweet way) when Bluebonnet later made my choice of posts to respond to easy...

Bluebonnet said:

Not good for the men if quad quickly becomes a "lady's jump".

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I mean, God forbid!

Bluebonnet said:

Of course the ladies should go for it if they can. It's more like "The ladies could do quad jumps regularly now. What the men want to do to seperate themselves from the ladies is to do the quintuple jumps."

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Because maintaining gender distinctions, and alleged male superiority, is the most important thing, after all!