Tara looks really pretty!
This is true. She will absolutely need her Lutz to be competitive. It's good of her to be trying it at these competitions.
I still don't think she needs the Flip or Loop, though. With her health, it's such a big risk...and for minimal reward. Her 3Flip gets an edge call and frequently got < calls or had landing issues even when she was healthy. This is also the jump that she went down on hard and dislocated her hip. I see no point at all in her training this jump. A good 2Lz gets her 2.4 points and allows her to increase her speed and transitions in the program, which means better PCS. Her 3Loop was a consistent jump for her, but after a labrum tear? Probably not a good idea. And, again, that jump requires a lot of setup time for her so she's losing PCS by attempting it.
I gave a potential score for Alissa with all doubles, so here's a layout with just 3 Triples in total:
2Axel
3Lutz
FCoSp4
2Lutz+2Loop
StSq3 (Level 4 if they can manage to make one that works with the program; that's the key)
-----
3Toe+2Toe+2Loop
2Axel+2Toe
CCoSp4
3Toe
ChSq
2Lutz
LSp4
Her score could go up 9 points on the tech with that layout (not even counting the possible of Level 4 footwork sequence), which would put her total at 116.6. That's really not bad at all. And then you have to figure her PCS would also go up if she really performs and has a good program, because these Triples carefully spread throughout the program provide enough of a technical excitement. It's all about phasing the program into segments where there is a clear buildup for the Triples to make them stand out.
I could see Alissa hitting 122 in the LP (that would account for a PCS of 65.4), with just 3 Triples in total. She will need to do a great, clean SP to be taken seriously heading into the LP. It all depends on Alissa being able to deliver a truly excellent programs. Her team needs to get to work NOW with focusing on that gameplan. Training only two different triple jumps should certainly help with giving extra time and energy towards creating the heavenly programs and performances she will need to succeed.
If Alissa did a 3 triple LP at Nationals and scored 122 points and made the Olympic team there would be an uproar. Especially if other skaters landed many more triples.
Alissa has to finish 4th at Sectionals to even make it to Nationals, and that is not a given.
I am puzzled by some of these recent posts, though less so by ChuckM's. We know he is not an Alissa Czisny fan. Oh, Chuckm.
Based on Czisny's regionals scores, she will easily make it to nationals. With the same scores at Midwestern Sectionals she earned at EGL Regionals, she will be 3rd, a hair out of second. This assumes no improvement. Top 4 qualify for nationals.
Also, people seem to be ignoring the quite intelligent post by Victura, suggesting that lack of ability is perhaps the least of the reasons Czisny might have intentionally been performing below her current ability at regionals.
I don't agree that Alissa will "easily" make it to sectionals.
Two skaters did not compete at regionals due to having a bye through the event: Ashley Cain and Hannah Miller. As far as I'm concerned Alissa will have to compete with four other girls for a nationals spot: Ashley, Hannah, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell. And I also wouldn't underestimate the other competitors either.
Czisny will not be able to get away with not doing any triples at sectionals. The four other girls have 5-6 triple programs and Ashley Cain is attempting a 3F-3T in competition now. I expect that Ashley will beat Alissa easily even if she is not successful with the 3-3.
Barbie is attempting a 3Z-3T and a 2A-3T. She did poorly in the JGP, but even did a 100+ FS during one of her events. She also did not do great at regionals either, so her score is not reflective of what she can do. She had two falls and still scored 99.
Mariah Bell's score at Regionals was far from her best. She score 92 due with a bunch of errors: she double both her lutzes, singled the toe loop in her planned 3T-2T combo, and singled the flip. She can do a six-triple program. At JGP, she scored 103+ for that program. I expect that she can beat Alissa easily if she does that at sectionals.
Hannah Miller is the biggest question mark. She did VERY poorly at the JGP and had a number of URs, but she was also coming back from an injury. However, she too is capable of scoring well IF she is fully healthy. Sectionals is in her home rink. I don't think that will offer any advantage, but she'll have lots of people cheering for her.
Several fans elsewhere have noted her inablity to do even a single axel in recent shows, so I don't think it's just chuckm being a hater this time around.
I wish the best for Alissa, but she has stiff competition.
Fair enough, Mrs. P, I guess. But one can't compare what all these unproven teenage girls (hate to call them that, but really) may have accomplished at some point. I don't know with what seriousness Blades of Passion made her/his points in this thread, but they show that Czisny with doubles ought to score quite well. I think, moreover, it is quite reasonable to assume AC is capable of more, but is holding back. She was pretty darn good in the little comp in WI last year before injuring herself on the 3F in the LP.
The difference between Czisny and the girls you mention is that Czisny has two deserved constants, regardless of jump outcomes: spins and programs components. Can we agree she is the best spinner the world (among all disciplines, not just ladies)? Lipnitskaia's positions won't last as she grows and quite frankly are ugly and freakish, despite evincing flexibility, so don't make her better than Czisny.
Alissa standardly earns a 7+ average on program components (Almost 8s when she land most of her jumps.). Except when she falls on almost all her jumps. Then she gets about 6.75 average. Those other girls, Mrs. P, have to land every jump to approach a 6.5 average on PCS. This is deserved, because of their lack of sophistication relative to Czisny's.
Skaterboy, I don't know what you said. I won't put effort into interpreting your incoherent posts. Anyone who does is doing you a favor.
So I hope she does some triples.
....I suppose the bottom line for me is this: it would be absurd if AC did not make it to nationals. For that matter, I still wonder why USFS would consider sending anyone beside AC to the Olympics in the third spot. It's not like any US woman is going to get a medal anyway, and certainly not the third qualifier.
...
AC deserves the spot on the Olympic team. She has earned it, and I am so tired of people saying earning it means being third best in one random competition, Nationals (not attributing that to you, Mrs.P). (What does Nationals have to do with anything? Ask Jeremy Abbott.)
I will make the same argument for Mariah Bell, Hannah Miller, Christina Gao, Samantha Cesario, Courtney Hicks, or whoever, when they have been competing at Nationals for 10+ years, under two judging systems, qualifying for three GP finals, and winning one of them.
Wow. Clearly a family member or close friend or uber-fan(atic). I don't think Alissa has that many truly card-carrying haterz here on the forum, but most thinking people can see she's obviously struggling and may not make Nationals without overcoming some formidable competitors. And many including myself would take issue with your emphatic statement that she "deserves" a spot on the Olympic team and has "earned" it. Baloney. She hasn't earned squat for 2014. Berths on the Olympic, World, and even 4CC teams shouldn't be consolation prizes merely for those who've been around a while and have lovely smiles and spins.
Thank you for your lovely assertions.
I am as entitled to my opinion as you are, never forget that. You are indeed coming across as borderline irrational on the subject of Alissa.