I do agree with RD she had a good shot in 2010. She was the reigning national champion, after all.
Given the recent scores and skates of Gold, Zawadzki, and Gao at early international events, it would appear that Czisny with her 148 score at that local competition is not too far behind the curve in terms of how most of the contenders are skating at this point in the season. With Zawadzki scoring in the 90s for her FS and Gold and Gao barely breaking 100, we assume that in the time between now and Nationals, those marks will go up a lot. I expect them to, too, however provided Czisny is healthy I don't see why she can't make the same kind of progression in time for Nationals and be in contention for the 3rd spot.
Alissa is skating at Eastern Great Lakes Regionals. The Senior Ladies SP is Monday at 5:55 EDT; the FS is Tuesday at 12:35 EDT. The competition is nothing to worry about. For those who have access to IceNetwork, the results are live and eventually there will be a video of the competition for paid members.
Czisny had way more than an outside shot in 2006. She fell twice in the short program and was still placed over Meissner with 1 lesser mistake. Had she done a decent long she would have easily made it. Of course easily beaten Hughes, and probably beaten Meissner and not even had to wait for a Kwan WD.
I would say 2006 and 2010 were both great shots. She simply had to skate a clean short (well in 06 not even a clean short) and a decent long and the judges would have put her on those teams for sure. This time around she is a huge long shot and would need the skate of her life to get that 3rd spot. She is no longer a USFSA pet or priority at this point, and her jumping and overall power and basic skating skills (as far as speed, attack, security) pale in comparision to many at the top of U.S skating now even if she skates well.
Czisny did not win the GPF in 2006. She won a Grand Prix event and took 2nd place in another to qualify for the Grand Prix final.
Right - point is, in 2010 Czisny controlled her own destiny. Stand up, and you're on the team. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your POV), she couldn't manage it...she self-destructed under the pressure. Frankly, what she DOESN'T want is to pull a Worlds 2012 on the Olympic stage. Perhaps like for so many others it was just not meant to be for her. Maybe there is a reason.
Yes, I remember, Alissa made GPF in 2006, but set herself up so nicely for the Olympic team. She and Sasha were basically the talk at Nats in 2006 which I attended. She had a spot GIVEN to her if she didn't implode. And implode she did. I think this was the best year for her to make an Olympic team. Everyone knew Kwan was injured and unable to compete, so you were competing for two spots (Sasha was a given). I was more a fan of Emily than Kimmie, but it was a no-brainer. Alissa stands up she goes to the Olympics. And then she falls five times. And this was after all her technical adjustment with Brian Boitano, whatever that meant. I mean, how does someone go out on a national stage and fall like that??? Tara Lipinski had her "furies" or whatever, but she got the job done. How disheartening to be practically given TWO Olympic spots only to crumble and lose both of them. At this point, I wish Alissa well, and just don't want her to injure herself again and have to be carried off an ice rink during competition. I wish good health and a great life outside of competitive skating. I don't think I can bear to watch her go for those jump elements anymore. She's always fallen, ever since I saw her in 2000 at Nats, but now those falls might interrupt a very vital and successful life she has ahead of her. I'm torn. I think my labrum will tear if I see her skate.
So the point is she had not just one, but TWO Olympics she only had so skate up and skate credability to make. She blew both. This year around is not the case at all, and she would have to pull a minor miracle to make it, although it isnt 100% impossible like Flatt's comeback.
But Flatt isn't recovering from two surgeries within the past year.
wow Alissa only got 50.23 in short at Regionals. not to good
That was generous. Here's what she did: 3z<<↓, 2t+2t, 2a
Here are the results:http://www.usfigureskating.org/leade...s/SEGM019.html
Alissa did not do a single triple: 3Z was <<, combo was 2T-2T and a 2A. Spins were good as always, Level 2 step sequence, but solid GOE
But it's worth noting that at 20.59 base value was the 5th lowest, but managed to get the second highest TES due to GOE on her spins and steps. She got the highest PCS by far.
Czisny should EASILY get through this round even if she struggles a bit.