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Thread: Czisny preparing for one last run at Olympic glory

  1. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    Alissa has to finish 4th at Sectionals to even make it to Nationals, and that is not a given.
    Well, right. I was wondering about how her recovery has progressed, what her technical ability is now, and if she's improved at all since Regionals.

    I get that Nationals isn't a given. I only said that her 2010/2011 self (who should have been on the world podium, btw) would be good enough to make the Sochi team. God only knows the last time Alissa has skated that well.

  2. #287
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    I really like Alissa's spirit and personality.

    That said, in my opinion, I don't think this is her time anymore. I think her best days are behind her.

    Good for her for trying though. There is nothing wrong in following your heart and giving things a shot.

  3. #288
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    truth is we havent seen her spirit yet. She hasnt competed yet.

  4. #289
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    Alissa has appeared at a couple of charity events. The only jumps she was able to land were a few single axels.

  5. #290
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    And her spins were held back too. I don't which is better, for her to scratch at Sectionals or compete and not make it. Best of luck to her.

  6. #291
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    I am puzzled by some of these recent posts, though less so by ChuckM's. We know he is not an Alissa Czisny fan. Oh, Chuckm.

    Based on Czisny's regionals scores, she will easily make it to nationals. With the same scores at Midwestern Sectionals she earned at EGL Regionals, she will be 3rd, a hair out of second. This assumes no improvement. Top 4 qualify for nationals.

    Also, people seem to be ignoring the quite intelligent post by Victura (#246), suggesting that lack of ability is perhaps the least of the reasons Czisny might have intentionally been performing below her current ability at regionals.

  7. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    I am puzzled by some of these recent posts, though less so by ChuckM's. We know he is not an Alissa Czisny fan. Oh, Chuckm.

    Based on Czisny's regionals scores, she will easily make it to nationals. With the same scores at Midwestern Sectionals she earned at EGL Regionals, she will be 3rd, a hair out of second. This assumes no improvement. Top 4 qualify for nationals.

    Also, people seem to be ignoring the quite intelligent post by Victura, suggesting that lack of ability is perhaps the least of the reasons Czisny might have intentionally been performing below her current ability at regionals.
    I don't agree that Alissa will "easily" make it to sectionals.

    Two skaters did not compete at regionals due to having a bye through the event: Ashley Cain and Hannah Miller. As far as I'm concerned Alissa will have to compete with four other girls for a nationals spot: Ashley, Hannah, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell. And I also wouldn't underestimate the other competitors either.

    Czisny will not be able to get away with not doing any triples at sectionals. The four other girls have 5-6 triple programs and Ashley Cain is attempting a 3F-3T in competition now. I expect that Ashley will beat Alissa easily even if she is not successful with the 3-3.

    Barbie is attempting a 3Z-3T and a 2A-3T. She did poorly in the JGP, but even did a 100+ FS during one of her events. She also did not do great at regionals either, so her score is not reflective of what she can do. She had two falls and still scored 99.

    Mariah Bell's score at Regionals was far from her best. She score 92 due with a bunch of errors: she double both her lutzes, singled the toe loop in her planned 3T-2T combo, and singled the flip. She can do a six-triple program. At JGP, she scored 103+ for that program. I expect that she can beat Alissa easily if she does that at sectionals.

    Hannah Miller is the biggest question mark. She did VERY poorly at the JGP and had a number of URs, but she was also coming back from an injury. However, she too is capable of scoring well IF she is fully healthy. Sectionals is in her home rink. I don't think that will offer any advantage, but she'll have lots of people cheering for her.

    Several fans elsewhere have noted her inablity to do even a single axel in recent shows, so I don't think it's just chuckm being a hater this time around.

    I wish the best for Alissa, but she has stiff competition.

  8. #293
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    Well she has great pcs and the spins have returned I thought. There just seems something wrong that a top US lady can't even do the garbage triples salchow and toe loop that we use to criticize katarina witt in her days for doing. We want an all around skater is what COP is saying but Alissa if she can't do the triples would be going the other way and she isn't even a pc skater like Kostner or Chan or Kim. I guess we will see soon So who do you think will make it to the Olympics more likely - Injured Plushenko, Czisny or Evan?

  9. #294
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    I don't agree that Alissa will "easily" make it to sectionals.

    Two skaters did not compete at regionals due to having a bye through the event: Ashley Cain and Hannah Miller. As far as I'm concerned Alissa will have to compete with four other girls for a nationals spot: Ashley, Hannah, Barbie Long and Mariah Bell. And I also wouldn't underestimate the other competitors either.

    Czisny will not be able to get away with not doing any triples at sectionals. The four other girls have 5-6 triple programs and Ashley Cain is attempting a 3F-3T in competition now. I expect that Ashley will beat Alissa easily even if she is not successful with the 3-3.

    Barbie is attempting a 3Z-3T and a 2A-3T. She did poorly in the JGP, but even did a 100+ FS during one of her events. She also did not do great at regionals either, so her score is not reflective of what she can do. She had two falls and still scored 99.

    Mariah Bell's score at Regionals was far from her best. She score 92 due with a bunch of errors: she double both her lutzes, singled the toe loop in her planned 3T-2T combo, and singled the flip. She can do a six-triple program. At JGP, she scored 103+ for that program. I expect that she can beat Alissa easily if she does that at sectionals.

    Hannah Miller is the biggest question mark. She did VERY poorly at the JGP and had a number of URs, but she was also coming back from an injury. However, she too is capable of scoring well IF she is fully healthy. Sectionals is in her home rink. I don't think that will offer any advantage, but she'll have lots of people cheering for her.

    Several fans elsewhere have noted her inablity to do even a single axel in recent shows, so I don't think it's just chuckm being a hater this time around.

    I wish the best for Alissa, but she has stiff competition.
    Fair enough, Mrs. P, I guess. But one can't compare what all these unproven teenage girls (hate to call them that, but really) may have accomplished at some point. I don't know with what seriousness Blades of Passion made her/his points in this thread, but they show that Czisny with doubles ought to score quite well. I think, moreover, it is quite reasonable to assume AC is capable of more, but is holding back. She was pretty darn good in the little comp in WI last year before injuring herself on the 3F in the LP.

    The difference between Czisny and the girls you mention is that Czisny has two deserved constants, regardless of jump outcomes: spins and programs components. Can we agree she is the best spinner the world (among all disciplines, not just ladies)? Lipnitskaia's positions won't last as she grows and quite frankly are ugly and freakish, despite evincing flexibility, so don't make her better than Czisny.

    Alissa standardly earns a 7+ average on program components (Almost 8s when she land most of her jumps.). Except when she falls on almost all her jumps. Then she gets about 6.75 average. Those other girls, Mrs. P, have to land every jump to approach a 6.5 average on PCS. This is deserved, because of their lack of sophistication relative to Czisny's.

    Skaterboy, I don't know what you said. I won't put effort into interpreting your incoherent posts. Anyone who does is doing you a favor.

  10. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    Fair enough, Mrs. P, I guess. But one can't compare what all these unproven teenage girls (hate to call them that, but really) may have accomplished at some point. I don't know with what seriousness Blades of Passion made her/his points in this thread, but they show that Czisny with doubles ought to score quite well. I think, moreover, it is quite reasonable to assume AC is capable of more, but is holding back. She was pretty darn good in the little comp in WI last year before injuring herself on the 3F in the LP.

    The difference between Czisny and the girls you mention is that Czisny has two deserved constants, regardless of jump outcomes: spins and programs components. Can we agree she is the best spinner the world (among all disciplines, not just ladies)? Lipnitskaia's positions won't last as she grows and quite frankly are ugly and freakish, despite evincing flexibility, so don't make her better than Czisny.

    Alissa standardly earns a 7+ average on program components (Almost 8s when she land most of her jumps.). Except when she falls on almost all her jumps. Then she gets about 6.75 average. Those other girls, Mrs. P, have to land every jump to approach a 6.5 average on PCS. This is deserved, because of their lack of sophistication relative to Czisny's.

    Skaterboy, I don't know what you said. I won't put effort into interpreting your incoherent posts. Anyone who does is doing you a favor.

    Mariah Bell has very nice programs and she can perform them well. Her PCS marks ranged from 6.06 in transitions to 6.5 in skating skills (overall 50+) vs Czisny at 54+ overall. That's a difference of 4 points. Just under the value of a triple toe loop (4.1 points). And Mariah did not skate a clean program, which likely affected her PCS as well. And while Czisny has the best spins, the difference between her spins and Bell's is just 1.27 points.

    Barbie Long has low PCS, Alissa has 7 points on her there. But Barbie had a TES of 12 more points at regionals and that's with not doing a 2A-3T and having two falls. And Alissa's scored just 0.89 higher than Barbie in spins.

    Ashley Cain will beat Alissa barring a meltdown. She also has very sophisticated programs and fared quite well at Nebelhorn Trophy, earning bronze there. She earned 162+ internationally, so I expect that score to be higher at sectionals.

    Hannah Miller is a big question mark because we have no data on her this season other than her terrible JGP. But her spins are solid as well. She earned 11.32 points at JGP Estonia in the FS for her spins, just 0.78 over Alissa. But I love her programs this year. They are well choreographed. Hannah is not a jumping bean. never has been. Her biggest ? is whether her smaller jumps will be ratified.

    That said Alissa missed a level on her layback, so the gap will be a bit bigger...but not by much (0.30 points).

    That said, I think Alissa has a shot at making nationals, but it won't be easy.

    And honestly, I don't really like the idea of a skater making it to Nationals without any triples, even with pretty spins and programs. That thought would apply to any skater not just Alissa. So I hope she does some triples.

  11. #296
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mrs. P View Post
    So I hope she does some triples.
    But surely she will. She is easing herself back into competition and avoiding unnecessary risk at this point. Totally rational. She is, to put it euphemistically, a veteran at this point and is, reasonably, being careful.

    I suppose the bottom line for me is this: it would be absurd if AC did not make it to nationals. For that matter, I still wonder why USFS would consider sending anyone beside AC to the Olympics in the third spot. It's not like any US woman is going to get a medal anyway, and certainly not the third qualifier.

    [Expletive] who happens to be third best at Nationals, a single competition. Zawadzki has shown us that is completely irrelevant to anything.

    AC deserves the spot on the Olympic team. She has earned it, and I am so tired of people saying earning it means being third best in one random competition, Nationals (not attributing that to you, Mrs.P). (What does Nationals have to do with anything? Ask Jeremy Abbott.)

    I will make the same argument for Mariah Bell, Hannah Miller, Christina Gao, Samantha Cesario, Courtney Hicks, or whoever, when they have been competing at Nationals for 10+ years, under two judging systems, qualifying for three GP finals, and winning one of them.

  12. #297
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    ....I suppose the bottom line for me is this: it would be absurd if AC did not make it to nationals. For that matter, I still wonder why USFS would consider sending anyone beside AC to the Olympics in the third spot. It's not like any US woman is going to get a medal anyway, and certainly not the third qualifier.

    ...

    AC deserves the spot on the Olympic team. She has earned it, and I am so tired of people saying earning it means being third best in one random competition, Nationals (not attributing that to you, Mrs.P). (What does Nationals have to do with anything? Ask Jeremy Abbott.)

    I will make the same argument for Mariah Bell, Hannah Miller, Christina Gao, Samantha Cesario, Courtney Hicks, or whoever, when they have been competing at Nationals for 10+ years, under two judging systems, qualifying for three GP finals, and winning one of them.
    Wow. Clearly a family member or close friend or uber-fan(atic). I don't think Alissa has that many truly card-carrying haterz here on the forum, but most thinking people can see she's obviously struggling and may not make Nationals without overcoming some formidable competitors. And many including myself would take issue with your emphatic statement that she "deserves" a spot on the Olympic team and has "earned" it. Baloney. She hasn't earned squat for 2014. Berths on the Olympic, World, and even 4CC teams shouldn't be consolation prizes merely for those who've been around a while and have lovely smiles and spins. Alissa has let down the USA team enough in the past that there's not a lot of warm fuzzies to draw on anymore.

  13. #298
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsisjiejie View Post
    Wow. Clearly a family member or close friend or uber-fan(atic). I don't think Alissa has that many truly card-carrying haterz here on the forum, but most thinking people can see she's obviously struggling and may not make Nationals without overcoming some formidable competitors. And many including myself would take issue with your emphatic statement that she "deserves" a spot on the Olympic team and has "earned" it. Baloney. She hasn't earned squat for 2014. Berths on the Olympic, World, and even 4CC teams shouldn't be consolation prizes merely for those who've been around a while and have lovely smiles and spins.
    Thank you for your lovely assertions.

    I know, right? Someone with non-standard views must be biased in some way.

    It's posts like your's, bigsisjiejie, that undermine that value of sites like GoldenSkate. Instead of responding with reasons, you challenge the integrity of those with views different from your own, and give no reason to support your views. Worse than useless.

    I know my views are in the minority. I wouldn't post if I were in the majority. That would be a waste of everyone's time! Who needs a "thumbs up" post?

  14. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pepe Nero View Post
    Thank you for your lovely assertions.
    I am as entitled to my opinion as you are, never forget that. You are indeed coming across as borderline irrational on the subject of Alissa.

  15. #300
    I got your program components right here. Pepe Nero's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigsisjiejie View Post
    I am as entitled to my opinion as you are, never forget that. You are indeed coming across as borderline irrational on the subject of Alissa.
    Of course you are. I would never suggest otherwise. Presenting an opposing view is not the same as saying that someone has no right to speak. Never forget that.

    But there is something odd in asserting the right to one's opinion in the same post in which one accuses someone who holds an opposing view of being irrational. I will trust your rationality to draw the correct implication.

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