Jason Brown

Mrs. P said:

Oh don't get me wrong. I'm glad Richard is improving! I actually loved his Sherlock program from 2011 and sad that he hadn't gone far since then. I think it's good he's in the mix now.

That said, I'm not quite in love with the Coldplay FS. At least not yet.

And by threat, I mean one of many for the national title, not just to Jason.

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I actually really love the Coldplay FS. I am not a Coldplay fan, but more I like how he handled it. I rather enjoy the lyrics kicking in at the end. Adds a nice boost of different energy at the end. I am not a fan of his short however. Sorry but when the flute or whatever shows up about halfway through, it just sounds like what Hollywood would pick as an example of cheesy 80s skating music. The difference in my enjoyment of his two programs is likely larger than any other skater. I really love his exhibition this year with the stuffed bull. I hope some fans clue into it and toss many plushie bulls at him at TEB, and I hope he decides to pick one from his fans to use in the exhibition.

And I get what you mean by "threat" but still it is an odd term to use. Maybe contender seems more fair. I am not sure I like the idea of calling Dornbush a threat is really fair to him. Threat almost implies their success is unearned. Meh, nitpicking, just the term always feels somewhere between odd and amusing to me. Ever since his CS win I have been kinda thinking he might be the most likely candidate for national gold this year. I kinda am expecting gold this year to go to someone who fills the "gold after all this time" roll or at least a comeback type win. Jason I think will be silver again and bronze will either be someone new filled with promise, or Max is my guess. Max could actually fill the comeback gold role for that matter. But I am expecting someone who has put in the years to get gold and can be seen as being rewarded for sticking with it, and someone expected to put in the years going forward to get bronze with happy Jason smiling in silver.

papagena said:

Regarding Juke TES: what is the BV of this program v Prince? Is it lower? Because if it is, he has to work harder and be cleaner than he did last year to achieve similar scores. If the program is planned so that he can add a quad in later, it may have fewer transitions, lower level footwork etc.

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The layout is similar I believe. I just think he hadn't performed it fully clean yet-- not just on the jumps but with the usual high GOE on the spins/steps. Also he hasn't received a level 4 in the step sequence this season, something he did several times last season.

Had he not fallen on the 3A, his score would have been 82.75 at SA. At Rostelecom, he would have broken 80 easily without the combo mistakes.

So yeah, the lower scores reflect that the programs have not been clean.

papagena said:

Regarding Juke TES: what is the BV of this program v Prince? Is it lower? Because if it is, he has to work harder and be cleaner than he did last year to achieve similar scores. If the program is planned so that he can add a quad in later, it may have fewer transitions, lower level footwork etc.

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Well let's take a look

SA 2013 was 38.10 base and a final of 44.85

TEB was 38.10 base and a final of 45.98

Sochi was 37.70 base and a final of 45.39

Ok for this year

Nebelhorn was 37.50 base and final of 43.50

Skate America was 37.50 base and final of 39.94

Russia was 35.40 base and final of 37.26

It looks like his step sequence last year was getting a 4 and this year it is getting a 3.

So not really a huge amount of base difference, but he does not seem to be getting as much GOE from it.

Mrs. P said:

... (That said I do think Richard is a pretty huge threat this season, especially if he performs well in TEB). ..

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StitchMonkey said:

... And I get what you mean by "threat" but still it is an odd term to use. Maybe contender seems more fair. I am not sure I like the idea of calling Dornbush a threat is really fair to him. Threat almost implies their success is unearned. Meh, nitpicking, just the term always feels somewhere between odd and amusing to me. Ever since his CS win I have been kinda thinking he might be the most likely candidate for national gold this year. I kinda am expecting gold this year to go to someone who fills the "gold after all this time" roll or at least a comeback type win. Jason I think will be silver again and bronze will either be someone new filled with promise, or Max is my guess. Max could actually fill the comeback gold role for that matter. But I am expecting someone who has put in the years to get gold and can be seen as being rewarded for sticking with it, and someone expected to put in the years going forward to get bronze with happy Jason smiling in silver.

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Nothing odd about Mrs. P's usage of "threat," IMO -- in a general sense of a threat for Nats gold, or for the podium.

And I disagree re: "Threat almost implies their success is unearned."

In fact, quite the opposite, I would say.

StitchMonkey said:

Well let's take a look

SA 2013 was 38.10 base and a final of 44.85

TEB was 38.10 base and a final of 45.98

Sochi was 37.70 base and a final of 45.39

Ok for this year

Nebelhorn was 37.50 base and final of 43.50

Skate America was 37.50 base and final of 39.94

Russia was 35.40 base and final of 37.26

It looks like his step sequence last year was getting a 4 and this year it is getting a 3.

So not really a huge amount of base difference, but he does not seem to be getting as much GOE from it.

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Of course the big +GOE losses is from the errors on the jumps. He lost -3 points from the fall on the 3A (and arguably could have lost more with a more strict caller who could have called it 3A<). At Rostelecom lost nearly five points in BV and -GOE (plus +GOE he usually gets) for the 3F-3T combo.

Just getting the BV and no GOE would have put his score in the 82+ range and within the podium after the Rostelecom SP.

But in addition to that he's not getting the same level of +GOE from his spins and steps he received last season. That could be reflective, as you pointed out SM, that he needs some more mileage on the program.

golden411 said:

Nothing odd about Mrs. P's usage of "threat," IMO -- in a general sense of a threat for Nats gold, or for the podium.

And I disagree re: "Threat almost implies their success is unearned."

In fact, quite the opposite, I would say.

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Yep, that's how I see it. It was meant as a compliment, not an insult. In calculating averages, I was surprised to see how right in line Richard was with Jason in a lot of areas. That's why I think he's a bigger threat now then he was last season.

I was not offended by the use of the term threat btw. I just. . . think threat has a negative connotation to it. I did not think anyone was throwing insults. I find it a bit amusing that we can simultaneously like a skater and call them a threat. You are not supposed to like threats in my view! Once you start liking them i don't see threats. Of course now the word has no meaning as i have been thinking about it too much. Still feels like a weird evolution of language to me.

Though i will admit he is a bigger threat than last season. . . even if it feels weird to say.

I kinda wonder how much seeing Jason's video going viral which included Scott saying "I would not want to be the skater who has to go next" and Richard knowing he was that skater, and did not exactly capitalize on Jason's energy may have put a fire under him. That has got to be a weird position to be in. Richard had an amazing SP, was second going into the free, then had to skate while trying to figure out what the hell he just missed that caused the arena to lose its collective mind. Then on top of it to know millions of people are hearing Scott judge you before you are even on the ice.

StitchMonkey said:

I was not offended by the use of the term threat btw. I just. . . think threat has a negative connotation to it. I did not think anyone was throwing insults. I find it a bit amusing that we can simultaneously like a skater and call them a threat. You are not supposed to like threats in my view! Once you start liking them i don't see threats. Of course now the word has no meaning as i have been thinking about it too much. Still feels like a weird evolution of language to me.

Though i will admit he is a bigger threat than last season. . . even if it feels weird to say.

I kinda wonder how much seeing Jason's video going viral which included Scott saying "I would not want to be the skater who has to go next" and Richard knowing he was that skater, and did not exactly capitalize on Jason's energy may have put a fire under him. That has got to be a weird position to be in. Richard had an amazing SP, was second going into the free, then had to skate while trying to figure out what the hell he just missed that caused the arena to lose its collective mind. Then on top of it to know millions of people are hearing Scott judge you before you are even on the ice.

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When, Richard, to be fair, probably had no idea what Scott was saying in real time. I definitely agree it was a bit unnerving to have to go after that.

Mrs. P said:

When, Richard, to be fair, probably had no idea what Scott was saying in real time. I definitely agree it was a bit unnerving to have to go after that.

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Ohh i know he did not know it in real time. But I suspect he did find out after. Either by watching it, or having drunk college kids (he is in college) asking him "aren't you the guy that had to skate after that youtube guy?" or some variation of the same. Skating after an awesome performance is one thing, but that is something skaters have to expect to learn to deal with. Knowing that millions of people heard the voice of figure skating predicting you placing 8th is another (in the free 5th over all). That would get under some people's skin. No one wants to be predicted to do poorly. I could see it being motivation for some. If you can't tell, I am, not crazy about Scott adding that comment, it was not needed.

I had to use a fair amount of statistics (never happily) in my work and one thing I learned real fast is the idea that data from a small sample is often unreliable.

In Jason's case, this is especially true. People have cited his last season's SA and Olympic free skates as examples of his perhaps becoming nervous after high scores for his SP and doing less well in the FS. But, in a number of cases in the past, he came back from a SP that left him well out of first to win the FS. Example: his win at the US Junior Nats in 2010, when he moved up from 3rd or 4th in the Short to win the title--at the grand old age of 15, beating both Max Aaron and Josh Farris. Another: in his last Junior Worlds, he was in 3rd after the SP, came back to win the long program and finish only 4 points behind Josh Farris for the silver.

What I think is fair to say--and this is buttressed by his own comments on a number of occasions--is that Jason is very analytical and a bit of a control freak. Despite his sunny personality, he's always trying to know as much as possible before a new experience. When he found himself in 2nd after the SP in last year's SA, he was unprepared to be fighting for a medal. Ditto the individual competition at the Olympics, when he was shocked to be in 6th place after the SP (and he really could have been 3rd, 4th or 5th) and then had to skate last in the final group. You can only imagine what it was like to be backstage all that time knowing a fine performance could win him a bronze.

Finally, I think those of you mentioning his having to deal with celebrity and adjust to it are also right on point. I'm sure that he is greeted by total strangers when he goes to the supermarket, buys gas or has dinner out. What starts out as a fun novelty can quickly become stressful. Also, remember that he's not even turning 20 until next month. At COR, he was the 2nd youngest skater in a field of 12. The few younger skaters who can beat him are pretty much all jumping prodigies.

Thx Mrs P & StitchMonkey for the BV info.

deetrakt said:

I had to use a fair amount of statistics (never happily) in my work and one thing I learned real fast is the idea that data from a small sample is often unreliable.

In Jason's case, this is especially true. People have cited his last season's SA and Olympic free skates as examples of his perhaps becoming nervous after high scores for his SP and doing less well in the FS. But, in a number of cases in the past, he came back from a SP that left him well out of first to win the FS. Example: his win at the US Junior Nats in 2010, when he moved up from 3rd or 4th in the Short to win the title--at the grand old age of 15, beating both Max Aaron and Josh Farris. Another: in his last Junior Worlds, he was in 3rd after the SP, came back to win the long program and finish only 4 points behind Josh Farris for the silver.

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Jason was second after the SP at 2010 Nationals, behind Max Aaron: http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2010/64740/results.html

He placed second behind Josh Farris in the FS, but did enough to win, since Max Aaron did not perform as well.

You are correct RE, Jr. Worlds.

What I think is fair to say--and this is buttressed by his own comments on a number of occasions--is that Jason is very analytical and a bit of a control freak. Despite his sunny personality, he's always trying to know as much as possible before a new experience. When he found himself in 2nd after the SP in last year's SA, he was unprepared to be fighting for a medal. Ditto the individual competition at the Olympics, when he was shocked to be in 6th place after the SP (and he really could have been 3rd, 4th or 5th) and then had to skate last in the final group. You can only imagine what it was like to be backstage all that time knowing a fine performance could win him a bronze.

Finally, I think those of you mentioning his having to deal with celebrity and adjust to it are also right on point. I'm sure that he is greeted by total strangers when he goes to the supermarket, buys gas or has dinner out. What starts out as a fun novelty can quickly become stressful. Also, remember that he's not even turning 20 until next month. At COR, he was the 2nd youngest skater in a field of 12. The few younger skaters who can beat him are pretty much all jumping prodigies.

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I agree with this, generally.

deetrakt said:

Finally, I think those of you mentioning his having to deal with celebrity and adjust to it are also right on point. I'm sure that he is greeted by total strangers when he goes to the supermarket, buys gas or has dinner out. What starts out as a fun novelty can quickly become stressful. Also, remember that he's not even turning 20 until next month. At COR, he was the 2nd youngest skater in a field of 12. The few younger skaters who can beat him are pretty much all jumping prodigies.

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Ohh and don't forget how many of those people come up to him have no clue about figure skating. I am sure I am not the only one who saw plenty of youtube comments to the effect of "wow how can he not win gold in Sochi!" that clearly were made by people not too familiar with the sport. I can't imagine how many times he heard people tell him crap like that in person. I mean do you thank them or correct them?

Your control freak (note I use this term in a friendly manner not insulting or critical) argument is an interesting one and does make sense. It will be interesting to see how his first trip to worlds (I sure as hell hope he gets to make more than one!) plays out as a result. Granted he has been to the Olympics, but worlds could still be annoyingly new. Control freak could also help explain the quadless strat. A person who wants to be in control, is the type who would rather perfect a triple than risk a quad. Someone who wants to always be in control, could easily be the type to be more annoyed by falls than others.

StitchMonkey said:

Ohh and don't forget how many of those people come up to him have no clue about figure skating. I am sure I am not the only one who saw plenty of youtube comments to the effect of "wow how can he not win gold in Sochi!" that clearly were made by people not too familiar with the sport. I can't imagine how many times he heard people tell him crap like that in person. I mean do you thank them or correct them?

Your control freak (note I use this term in a friendly manner not insulting or critical) argument is an interesting one and does make sense. It will be interesting to see how his first trip to worlds (I sure as hell hope he gets to make more than one!) plays out as a result. Granted he has been to the Olympics, but worlds could still be annoyingly new. Control freak could also help explain the quadless strat. A person who wants to be in control, is the type who would rather perfect a triple than risk a quad. Someone who wants to always be in control, could easily be the type to be more annoyed by falls than others.

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I think the term Kori and Jason have used is "integrity." They are all about getting points except when it means messing up the overall feel and image of the program. To them, they feel falls marr the program. That's not to say Kori is going to yell at him for falling during a program (like at SA). But I think it's something that doesn't happen at practice. Basically, with the quad, if they feel that the quad, be it a fall or just its affect on the rest of the program, affects the entire program, they won't use it.

For all we know they actually "have" the quad, but it's not natural yet, i.e. it doesn't feel well-integrated into the program. I think Jason refers to this as "feeling like practice." The 3A probably is fine in practice, but maybe mentally it's not quite there yet in certain situations (I.e. second 3A in every FS ever. He only has received +GOE on two 3As in a FS at Jr. Worlds). The quad might be one step below that where it doesn't feel like second nature yet.

StitchMonkey said:

Control freak could also help explain the quadless strat. A person who wants to be in control, is the type who would rather perfect a triple than risk a quad. Someone who wants to always be in control, could easily be the type to be more annoyed by falls than others.

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True, and I think also that Jason sees a klutzy fall (and he's had several already this season) as breaking the spell of an otherwise wonderful performance. I expect though that when he's landing 60-70% of his quads in practice (including slightly under-rotated and/or 2-footed), he's going to get pressure from Kori and Rohene to try them anyway. Anyway, I can't see Worlds fazing him much after the Olympics!

Mrs. P said:

Someone at FSU posted this Bev Smith piece about Jason: http://bevsmithwrites.wordpress.com/2014/11/16/things-are-not-always-as-they-seem/

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Thanks for the link Mrs. P. :thumbsup:

Mrs. P said:

I think the term Kori and Jason have used is "integrity." They are all about getting points except when it means messing up the overall feel and image of the program. To them, they feel falls marr the program. That's not to say Kori is going to yell at him for falling during a program (like at SA). But I think it's something that doesn't happen at practice. Basically, with the quad, if they feel that the quad, be it a fall or just its affect on the rest of the program, affects the entire program, they won't use it.

For all we know they actually "have" the quad, but it's not natural yet, i.e. it doesn't feel well-integrated into the program. I think Jason refers to this as "feeling like practice." The 3A probably is fine in practice, but maybe mentally it's not quite there yet in certain situations (I.e. second 3A in every FS ever. He only has received +GOE on two 3As in a FS at Jr. Worlds). The quad might be one step below that where it doesn't feel like second nature yet.

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Actually falls do happen it seems.

In reference to his long program:
Relevant potion quoted below

When I train at home, I give 100 % from the beginning. I end up doing 3 jumps and then I fall, fall, fall because I’m so tired.

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So it seems he does fall in practice, but it sounds like there is a logic to it.

As for the quad. I suspect it is farther along than they let on, but I also suspect there is strategy to when to introduce it and likewise how much time to focus on it vs everything else. I would not be surprised if it is there, but Kori has not felt the time is right to give him a kick in the engine to add it in. I suspect he is/will be the last to think it is ready.

Don't talk about RoC as a tragedy. Jason has made big mistakes in the SP, then recovered in FS. He is not a machine but a sensitive young man. He has his whole career ahead of him. Then the moment after the FS was wonderful He didn't cry he was very moved only, covered her face with her hands. Item got up from. Sensitive, but adult young man.

balletanddancefan said:

Don't talk about RoC as a tragedy. Jason has made big mistakes in the SP, then recovered in FS. He is not a machine but a sensitive young man. He has his whole career ahead of him. Then the moment after the FS was wonderful He didn't cry he was very moved only, covered her face with her hands. Item got up from. Sensitive, but adult young man.

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I don't think we're talking about it as a tragedy (though the events RE: Shep Goldberg certainly are), but just analyzing the situation.

StitchMonkey said:

Actually falls do happen it seems.

In reference to his long program:
Relevant potion quoted below




So it seems he does fall in practice, but it sounds like there is a logic to it.

As for the quad. I suspect it is farther along than they let on, but I also suspect there is strategy to when to introduce it and likewise how much time to focus on it vs everything else. I would not be surprised if it is there, but Kori has not felt the time is right to give him a kick in the engine to add it in. I suspect he is/will be the last to think it is ready.

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Yes, I agree. It sounds like he does a lot of run-throughs of his program so he can learn how to skate programs when he's tired or fatigued.

I agree the quad is probably father along than most thinks and there is strategy/psychology at play.

Mrs. P said:

II agree the quad is probably father along than most thinks and there is strategy/psychology at play.

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I also think that the quad is nearly there. We've seen him do one (although hand down and ur) a year and a half ago after all. I also think that they are not going to advertise when he first tries the quad, because that would then become the main focus of the whole program and add tons of pressure. I know that they hand in planned content sheets, but they can always put 3S or 3T in insted of 4S or 4T, right?

Richard is definitely a threat for gold this season, and I kind of hope he does get it (and when someone says threat I never thought it was a negative thing, to me is natural and in fact sort of complimentary to the "threat"). For sure I wouldn't want Jason to win without trying the quad because that might cause all sorts of havoc.

Could someone tell me what is thing color orange that Jason held under his arm? It might seem a tool for Pilates but I have never seen stuff so. And the bottle? Is an american special mineral water?
https://twitter.com/JasonBrownJPFan/status/534625249598267394 Seems very similar as French Evian.