What does Suzuki lack?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Aug 15, 2013

There is no way that Satoko will be put on the team over Suzuki. Unless she absolutely bombs and Miyahara skates lights out, Suzuki will undoubtedly outscore her. As mentioned, Miyahara (through no fault of hers) will likely not medal on the GP, whereas Suzuki is an expected medalist in all her GP events.

pangtongfan · Aug 15, 2013

I dont know if I would even call Suzuki an expected medalist at her events.

First off Skate Canada. There is absolutely no way she is beating Kim of course. So if NMURA's claims she is in trouble if she doesnt "win" Skate Canada are true (which I dont neccessarily believe, but she is Japanese and knows more about the inside situation there than any of us do) then she is already in trouble as she is never winning there barring a WD from Kim. I would favor Gold to finish above her, she could beat Gold if she skates really well (and even if she doesnt Gold could have mistakes too) but Gold would be favored over her at this point IMO. Julia L. last year despite a rough season posted top scores, excluding the WTT, on par or higher than Suzuki. Osmond is on her home ice, finished higher than Suzuki at Worlds, and beat her at Skate Canada last year. She could medal but she isnt neccessarily an expected medalist, not for me anyway.

NHK perhaps. Then again I would expect Mao and Gold to most likely beat her. Mao beat her there this past year with about 3 triples which proves emphatically who the JSF favorite is. Li has quite a decent shot of beating her. She is much more consistent, and is only getting better, and finished above Suzuki at Worlds. Suzuki had a bad event at Worlds and should/hopefully will usually skate better than that, but as I said Li is very consistent, gaining judges respect all the time, and improving at a rapid rate. Who knows what Nagasu will bring but if she wants any hope of the 3rd spot on the U.S team she will be really bringing it by this stage too.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Aug 15, 2013

If not an expected medalist, certainly a medal contender and certainly more than Miyahara.

Something tells me that Gold will turn in on in her GP events, but Suzuki does have experience on her side. I could picture them splitting their GP events in terms of higher placement.

ForeverFish · Aug 15, 2013

Yes, I would hope/expect that Gracie has a better GP this season than she had last season. She'll want to set herself up well for the US judges come January.

As for Akiko, I dearly hope that she manages at least a bronze at both of her events. Here's how I anticipate things will pan out for her:

SC: Yuna, Gracie, Akiko
NHK: Mao, Gracie, Akiko (unless Mao skates as poorly as she did last year, in which case I would expect the scoring to be: Akiko, Mao, Gracie)

It might not be good enough to get her into the Final -- I can see Yuna and Carolina winning both of their events, and Mao and Ashley with one gold and one silver apiece -- but two medals on the GP is still quite a respectable feat. It'll show the JSF that she's serious about challenging for the Olympic podium.

NMURA · Aug 15, 2013

I think you're all underestimating Miyahara. She will place 6th or higher at both GPs. actually, she didn't get so many UR's except in Milan, Italy. She constantly lands 7 or 8 triples on paper (meaning ratified clean triples). NHK trophy is the JSF's home turf. You can see their "plan" by watching how she would be treated closely.

There are only three examples which Japan had 3 Olympic spots in the past (Torino ladies, Vancouver men & ladies). We can't say many things about their selection patterns but some conditions must be different from worlds. There's no quota battle like worlds. Therefore someone like Suzuki who can place within 8th but has no medal possibility is useless for the JSF. They need to invest on future because it's once in four years. If they want to "split" the tickets, it's more than rational to give the Olympic spot to Miyahara and the worlds spot to Suzuki.

pangtongfan · Aug 15, 2013

Looking at all the grand prixs it is interesting to wonder who is in best shape to make the grand prix final:

Skate America- I would actually call Wagner to win this. It is early in the season when Mao typically isnt at her best and it is in the U.S which will probably lead to inflated PCS for Wagner (especialy if she skates well) and deflated for Mao and the others. Mao probably to take 2nd and Tuktamysheva probably to take 3rd.

Skate Canada- Kim to win easily. Silver and bronze with alot of skaters battling for it though. I think the podium will be some combination of Gold, Osmond, Lipnitskaia, and Suzuki after Kim. This will be an important event for Gold and Suzuki to try and take 2nd in if they have strong hopes for the final.

Cup of China- Kostner to probably win, although she isnt reliable on the grand prix events so anything could happen. Murakami, Li, and Sotnikova probably battling for 2nd. Home ice could push Li's scores here.

NHK- if Mao skates well then probably Mao winning, and Gold vs Suzuki vs Li for 2nd place.

Trophee Bombard- Kim to win easily. Wagner probably to take 2nd. Sotnikova to probably take 3rd.

Rostelecom Cup- Kostner probably winning, especialy as she tends to find her form around now. Murakami vs Lipnitskaia vs Osmond possibly for 2nd.

So Kim, Kostner, and Asada should be in easily. Wagner definitely should be in, she lucked out with cushy assignments again. Gold and Suzuki likely are battling directly in their events for a spot in the final. Whoever does better between the two in their two combined events has a good shot to make it, while the other likely wont. The other spot will likely go to Murakami who lucked out with easier assignment as well. Li, Osmond, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia have an outside shot to make it but drew tougher assignments.

ForeverFish · Aug 15, 2013

We're mostly in agreement, pangtongfan.

SA: Wagner, Asada, Tukt
SC: Kim, Gold, Suzuki
CoC: Kostner, Murakami, Sotnikova
NHK: Asada, Gold, Suzuki/Suzuki, Asada, Gold (depends on which Asada shows up)
TEB: Kim, Wagner, Sotnikova
CoR: Kostner, Murakami, Osmond
GPF: Kim, Kostner, Asada, Wagner, Gold/Suzuki, Murakami

Mrs. P · Aug 15, 2013

NMURA said:
I think you're all underestimating Miyahara. She will place 6th or higher at both GPs. actually, she didn't get so many UR's except in Milan, Italy. She constantly lands 7 or 8 triples on paper (meaning ratified clean triples). NHK trophy is the JSF's home turf. You can see their "plan" by watching how she would be treated closely.

There are only three examples which Japan had 3 Olympic spots in the past (Torino ladies, Vancouver men & ladies). We can't say many things about their selection patterns but some conditions must be different from worlds. There's no quota battle like worlds. Therefore someone like Suzuki who can place within 8th but has no medal possibility is useless for the JSF. They need to invest on future because it's once in four years. If they want to "split" the tickets, it's more than rational to give the Olympic spot to Miyahara and the worlds spot to Suzuki.

IMO, I think it ought to be the other way around. Why not send Satoko to Worlds where she's likely to get a great placement due to the depleted field there? Honestly, I don't see her finishing better than Akiko at the Olympics.

And honestly having the "future" finish well at the Olympics isn't guaranteed to be all that useful in the long run either, just ask the federation of the 4th place skater from the Vancouver Olympics.

Moment · Aug 15, 2013

The talk that Satoko is favoured over Akiko by the JSF is interesting. Oh well. Akiko at her best is certainly heads and shoulders above Satoko, but JSF's plans seem understandable when you think neither skaters have a good chance to medal.

It's easy to ignore URs anyway. I know skaters frequently get a pass for rotations when they're landed fine. And both skaters have UR issues, not just Satoko Miyahara.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Aug 15, 2013

Moment said:
The talk that Satoko is favoured over Akiko by the JSF is interesting. Oh well. Akiko at her best is certainly heads and shoulders above Satoko, but JSF's plans seem understandable when you think neither skaters have a good chance to medal.

It's easy to ignore URs anyway. I know skaters frequently get a pass for rotations when they're landed fine. And both skaters have UR issues, not just Satoko Miyahara.

Hmm, Miyahara's UR issues are much more apparent. Also, I hope JSF doesn't pull a Russian Federation-Kovtun-Menshov scenario and give a youngster a shot even if a veteran has "earned" their spot.

kwanatic · Aug 15, 2013

I would hope, being that Akiko is planning on retiring next year, that the JSF wouldn't crap all over her in her final season. Let's not forget Akiko has been an integral part of keeping Japan in the standings over the last 4 years. Since 2010 she's placed 1st or 2nd at every GP event she's entered; she's been at every GPF and medaled in 2 of the 3 (4th in the other); she was the top Japanese lady in 2012, finishing ahead of Mao and Kanako at worlds and in the rankings that season. She's been a phenomenal representative of her country, very humble, gracious and classy despite some of the fudged up stuff they've done to her at these competitions.

If the JSF passes over Akiko for Satoko, I'd be appalled. I think Satoko is brilliant and as long as she continues to improve, she'll definitely be the flagship for the Japanese women in the 2014-2015 season. However, she lacks the overall maturity, polish, presence, experience and reputation Akiko has. As great as Satoko is, she'd be steamrolled in the standings next to the Big Three and a number of the 3rd tier skaters as well.

It's not Satoko's time yet. I'd like to see Mao, Akiko and Kanako go to Sochi. They've carried the bulk of the burden for the last 4 years and they deserve to get the opportunity to compete. Mao is a favorite for the podium and both Akiko and Kanako are outside shots at a medal but definite contenders for a top 5-10 finish. I barely see Satoko making the top 10 in Sochi. Her skating is still too small; the skill is there but the impact and presence is not. She needs time to mature and grow.

I would like to see Satoko get a spot on the world team this year or 4CC. If Mao and Akiko finish up in Sochi, I'd like to see Satoko, Kanako and maybe Haruka Imai or Rika Hongo (if she's eligible) go to worlds.

pangtongfan · Aug 15, 2013

I agree by fairness the Japanese Olympic team should already be Asada, Murakami, and Suzuki. Those three have been the constants this quad. Satoko's time will come, and Ando has had her time. IMO neither of those deserve to be on the Olympic team over the former three. However fairness does not always prevail in sport. The JSF will likely focus on what fits their own plans the best, as well as who skates well this season and at Nationals.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Aug 15, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I agree by fairness the Japanese Olympic team should already be Asada, Murakami, and Suzuki. Those three have been the constants this quad.

Agreed. And logically speaking, they would be the best choices for Sochi at this point. However you never know. Leonova's season following her World silver was abysmal and clearly she wasn't the right choice for the World team, and they shouldn't have rested on her history. Hopefully the JSF will make a fair decision and not base it off one or two events. Miyahara would frankly be a waste of an Olympic spot, because she's simply not ready for that kind of stage -- she's never even been to Worlds.

sky_fly20 · Aug 15, 2013

Akiko will be in trouble in Canada only, she will battle for bronze maybe with Gold, Julia and Kiira
Gold will be Kims and Osmond is a lock for the silver medal no matter how she skates as it is in home ice

in NHK, she will find out if basically she has been dumped over by Miyahara

cooper · Aug 15, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Looking at all the grand prixs it is interesting to wonder who is in best shape to make the grand prix final:

Skate America- I would actually call Wagner to win this. It is early in the season when Mao typically isnt at her best and it is in the U.S which will probably lead to inflated PCS for Wagner (especialy if she skates well) and deflated for Mao and the others. Mao probably to take 2nd and Tuktamysheva probably to take 3rd.

Skate Canada- Kim to win easily. Silver and bronze with alot of skaters battling for it though. I think the podium will be some combination of Gold, Osmond, Lipnitskaia, and Suzuki after Kim. This will be an important event for Gold and Suzuki to try and take 2nd in if they have strong hopes for the final.

Cup of China- Kostner to probably win, although she isnt reliable on the grand prix events so anything could happen. Murakami, Li, and Sotnikova probably battling for 2nd. Home ice could push Li's scores here.

NHK- if Mao skates well then probably Mao winning, and Gold vs Suzuki vs Li for 2nd place.

Trophee Bombard- Kim to win easily. Wagner probably to take 2nd. Sotnikova to probably take 3rd.

Rostelecom Cup- Kostner probably winning, especialy as she tends to find her form around now. Murakami vs Lipnitskaia vs Osmond possibly for 2nd.

So Kim, Kostner, and Asada should be in easily. Wagner definitely should be in, she lucked out with cushy assignments again. Gold and Suzuki likely are battling directly in their events for a spot in the final. Whoever does better between the two in their two combined events has a good shot to make it, while the other likely wont. The other spot will likely go to Murakami who lucked out with easier assignment as well. Li, Osmond, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaia have an outside shot to make it but drew tougher assignments.

yuna winning easily is just ridiculous.. we don't know yet.. as a yuna fan she's still need to skate not just showing up..

aftertherain · Aug 15, 2013

ForeverFish said:
GPF: Kim, Kostner, Asada, Wagner, Gold/Suzuki, Murakami

That would be a rather exciting GPF. ^__^

ForeverFish · Aug 15, 2013

aftertherain said:
That would be a rather exciting GPF. ^__^

Well, fingers crossed, then!

pangtongfan · Aug 15, 2013

cooper said:
yuna winning easily is just ridiculous.. we don't know yet.. as a yuna fan she's still need to skate not just showing up..

I am forecasting what is likely to happen at each event, otherwise there is no point doing a rough breakdown to see who is in the final. Of course anything can happen, ice is slippery, but considering Yu Na in her entire 8 year senior career after her debut event at Skate Canada has only lost to 3 skaters- Asada, Kostner, and Ando, that none of those skaters are in any of her events, how she looked at Worlds, and while she sometimes makes mistakes she NEVER has meltdowns (which is what would be required for the likes of Sotnikova or Gold or Suzuki or Murakami to beat her even at their absolute best) slotting her in as the projected winner of her grand prix events is as close to the safest picks you can make. If we cant even assume such straightforward things as that, like I said we might as well not even project the likely grand prix finals by doing a rough breakdown of events. Note so far you are the ONLY one who disagreed with any of my assessment. I didnt pick her the automatic winner of the grand prix final now did I.

drivingmissdaisy · Aug 15, 2013

My picks

SA: Asada, Wagner, Radionova
SC: Kim, Gold, Osmond
CoC: Sotnikova, Kostner, Murukami (I agree with Patongfan that Kostner can have a bad event in the GP, especially her first)
NHK: Asada, Gold, Radionova
TEB: Kim, Sotnikova, Wagner
CoR: Kostner, Lipnitskaya, Murakami

There's always surprises on the GP circuit and the only thing I feel certain about is Kim winning her events.

pangtongfan · Aug 15, 2013

Under those results the GP final qualifiers would be Kim, Asada, Kostner, Gold, Sotnikova, and Wagner. The consensus so far given the assignments seems to be it will be Kim, Asada, Kostner, one of Gold or Suzuki (but probably not both), Wagner, and one other skater out of a number of possabilities.

If both Suzuki and Murakami fail to reach the grand prix final I see Ando's stock (which I currently consider very low) of making the Japanese Olympic team, suddenly will go way up, as the JSF will not be at all pleased or impressed if they dont have atleast 2 women in the final.

What does Suzuki lack?

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