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Thread: Which country will lead in medals at Sochi?

  1. #1
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Which country will lead in medals at Sochi?

    Well, who will take home the heaviest bag?

    Japan? likely a mens medal, maybe a ladies. pairs or dance? nu uh. so maybe 2 max.

    How will the rest fair?

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    Japan: maybe 2 , but in an extremly lucky day it can be 3 (2 men, 1 lady)
    Canada: maybe 2 (ice dance, men), but in a lucky day it can be 3 (pairs), plus a team medal for sure.
    Russia: maybe 2 (pairs for sure, and I think judges will provide an ice dance bronz doesn't matter B/S or I/K), plus a team medal, because this set of medals was created for them
    Germany: 1 (pairs)
    USA. maybe 1 (dance) and 1 for the team.
    Italy: 1 (lady) in the unlikely case of miracle 2 (dance)


    A slight chance to Spain (men), China (pairs).

  3. #3
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Canada
    a second place fight between USA or Russia
    Japan
    Germany
    Italy
    maybe Spain
    China not so much

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    Interesting question. My thoughts so far:

    U.S.
    Likely--2 (1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Possible--3 (1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team). I do think it's possible that Gold/Wagner could win a surprise medal.

    CANADA
    Likely--4 (1 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Possible--4. Some might think Osmond or Weaver/Poje are outside shots for a medal, but I don't see it happening.

    RUSSIA
    Likely--2 (1 pairs, 1 team)
    Possible--5 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Outside possibility if Putin bribes/strong-arms judges/ISU--6 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team) I don't think there will be a Russian lady on the podium unless something funny happens behind the scenes.

    JAPAN
    Likely--2 (1 men, 1 ladies). I don't think the Japanese men will be denied two years in a row.
    Possible--3 (2 men, 1 ladies)

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    Quote Originally Posted by eyria View Post
    Interesting question. My thoughts so far:

    U.S.
    Likely--2 (1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Possible--3 (1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team). I do think it's possible that Gold/Wagner could win a surprise medal.

    CANADA
    Likely--4 (1 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Possible--4. Some might think Osmond or Weaver/Poje are outside shots for a medal, but I don't see it happening.

    RUSSIA
    Likely--2 (1 pairs, 1 team)
    Possible--5 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 team)
    Outside possibility if Putin bribes/strong-arms judges/ISU--6 (2 pairs, 1 men, 1 ice dance, 1 ladies, 1 team) I don't think there will be a Russian lady on the podium unless something funny happens behind the scenes.

    JAPAN
    Likely--2 (1 men, 1 ladies). I don't think the Japanese men will be denied two years in a row.
    Possible--3 (2 men, 1 ladies)
    I agree with all that except I do think Weaver & Poje definitely have an outside shot of a medal. Reynolds might have an outside shot of a medal too. Canada will likely win the most medals overall.

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    Russia - possible is one medal in Ladies.

    If Adelina will earn jumping stability
    or
    Liza will be in her best (she is best female jumper in Russia and very good at all if in her best)
    or
    Julia will restore her stability of season 2011/2012

    - one medal (bronze) may be.

    Not more than one medal even all three will be in their best.
    And of course only possible.

  7. #7
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Russia - possible is one medal in Ladies.

    If Adelina will earn jumping stability
    or
    Liza will be in her best (she is best female jumper in Russia and very good at all if in her best)
    or
    Julia will restore her stability of season 2011/2012

    - one medal (bronze) may be.

    Not more than one medal even all three will be in their best.
    And of course only possible.
    yes but it will also require the crumbling of 3 or 4 other top skaters

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    yes but it will also require the crumbling of 3 or 4 other top skaters
    No.
    Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
    Yuna is unbeatable.
    All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.

  9. #9
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    No.
    Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
    Yuna is unbeatable.
    All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.
    Yuna - true will be unbeatable unless she has an epic meltdown

    but others Mao, Carolina, Gold these three will be fighting for podium too
    outside shots Kanako maybe Wagner along with the Russian girls Adelina or Julia

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    Quote Originally Posted by sky_fly20 View Post
    Yuna - true will be unbeatable unless she has an epic meltdown

    but others Mao, Carolina, Gold these three will be fighting for podium too
    outside shots Kanako maybe Wagner along with the Russian girls Adelina or Julia
    Ashley Wagner, and possibly Zijun Li and Akiko (she is very good in her best) also will be fighting for podium.
    Who will win in this fight - nobody knows.

    Remember - at Euro-2013 Kostner was only "half step ahead" Adelina and Liza (when Liza was mistaken in SP and Adelina in FS).

    And I don't think that Gold's chance is higher than Wagner's.

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    I agree with eyria, although I think B/S are practically guaranteed bronze in Russia if they stay on their feet (though it might be close).

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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    No.
    Only not ideal skating of Mao or Caro is needed. Mao often skates not ideally, clean skating of Caro I don't remember for years.
    Yuna is unbeatable.
    All other skaters may be won by Adelina, Liza, Julia in their best.
    And how long has it been since Liza and Adelina skated clean?

  13. #13
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    And how long has it been since Liza and Adelina skated clean?
    Adelina, close to clean Europeans 2013
    Tuk skated a clean program back in TEB 2011

    anyways if there is a boycott by USA which will be followed by Canada of course
    Russia can max 2 for pairs, 2 for ice dance, 1 for man and woman
    Japan 2 for man and 1 for woman, Italy maybe 1 for dance, 1 for lady and 1 for pair, Spain 1 for man
    France maybe 1 for Ice dance, China maybe 1 for pairs if lucky enough

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    It does make sense to start factoring in possible boycotts! No D/W and V/M mean ice dance medals are totally up in the air where B/S and I/k could medal! P/B would be frontrunners! No US ladies great for Russian girls!


    If IOC moves the olympics and Russia boycotts that means s/s in pairs or even d/r win gold!!

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    I see no one is mentioning Korea whereas Spain, Germany, Italy and China are mentioned.
    Is it because Yuna is from Republic of Yunakim?

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