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Thread: Senior Ladies FS 2013-2014 Base Value

  1. #1
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    Senior Ladies FS 2013-2014 Base Value

    I thought that a ranking of the BV of the FSs of the top Senior Ladies for next season could be very interesting and useful, especially when we're comparing skaters (technically) or discussing about who has the potentially highest-scoring program, the most difficult, the most IJS-friendly etc. I obviously considered all jumps rotated and all spins and steps at level 4 (even if some of these skaters have never received, for example, a level 4 in the steps), with some exceptions that I specified, plus the 2 points of the ChSq, and that's the result:
    1) Mao Asada: 68.65 (I considered the layout she used at 2013 Worlds and WTT because she has already said that her layout will be almost the same)
    2) Courtney Hicks: 62.83 (2013 Glacier Falls with the 3F+3T at the beginning)
    3) Gracie Gold: 62.11 (2013 Skate Milwaukee with the 2A+3T in the second half)
    4) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: 61.61 (she never usually changes her layout, I considered the 2A+3T in the second half as she did last season; I considered a level3 LSp)
    5) Zijun Li: 61.20
    6) Akiko Suzuki: 60.85 (I considered the one she attempted at her summer competition, but she could add a second loop instead of the salchow)
    7) Ashley Wagner: 60.03 (she moved the 3Lz to the second half and added the 3Lo+2A last season and I think that she'll keep these layout b/c they worked well)
    8) Anna Pogorilaya: 60.02 (as suggested by AlexRus, adding the 2 points of the ChSq to her Junior Worlds BV, but she could change her layout for her Senior debut)
    9) Alena Leonova: 59.35 (she almost never changed her layout during these last years except for the spins, so I thought that I could already consider it)
    10) Kiira Korpi: 58.91 (I considered her injury-free layout, with lutz and flip)
    11) Mirai Nagasu: 58.71 (2013 Glacier Falls)
    12) Yu-Na Kim: 58.22 (last year's layout, that won't probably change, with a level 3 LSp)
    I didn't include Sotnikova because she usually changes her layout a lot from season to season, the same for Kostner; Lipnitskaya began last season with a new and more challenging layout that included the 3Lz+3T but after the injury went back to the junior layout with two 2A+3T, now we don't know anything about what she'll choose to do. Kaetlyn Osmond is a relatively newbie in the Senior world, so I don't know... there were reports about her 3Lz+3T and they said that they're planning to include the loop, too, so her layout will be probably different from last season's.
    Any correction is welcome!
    (I will obviously update this as soon as we have any news)

  2. #2
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    That is very interesting. With nine skaters ahead of Yuna Kim in base value on paper, that shows the value of actually doing what you say you are going to do and doing it well.

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    Zijun Li had real BV 60.60 at Worlds.
    Pogorilaya had BV 58.02 at JrWorlds, it means Senor 60.02.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mathman View Post
    That is very interesting. With nine skaters ahead of Yuna Kim in base value on paper, that shows the value of actually doing what you say you are going to do and doing it well.
    It shows nothing.
    GOE means very much.

    It is not enough to perform elements - needed to perform them good.

  5. #5
    Custom Title FSGMT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Zijun Li had real BV 60.60 at Worlds.
    Pogorilaya had BV 58.02 at JrWorlds, it means Senor 60.02.
    I forgot them! thank you, correction made

  6. #6
    Blue-footed Booby aftertherain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    It shows nothing.
    GOE means very much.

    It is not enough to perform elements - needed to perform them good.
    You just said what Mathman said, but you just said it differently.

    But I agree. Yuna's BV may be the lowest out of all listed her currently, but she performs her elements well and that's how she gets over that hurdle. (i.e. Her +GOE came out to be a little more than 17 at the 2010 Olympics FS, whereas her +GOE at 2013 Worlds FS was a little more than 16. That's a lot of points earned.)

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    Another factor with Yuna is that she does the very difficult 3Z-3T, which doesn't earn any additional difficulty points than the jumps alone but the judges do notice and reward that difficulty accordingly (as they should). Aside from Mao's 3A, that is probably the single hardest element being done by any senior lady.

  8. #8
    Custom Title FSGMT's Avatar
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    There was a mistake in Courtney's score (I had considered the first 2A in the second half, but it is actually before the 2-minutes halfway mark so it doesn't receive the 10% bonus), I corrected it

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    ~high art~
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    So unless you try a 3A, the difference in BV is not so significant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    Aside from Mao's 3A, that is probably the single hardest element being done by any senior lady.
    There is a young Russian lady who will debut on the JGP circuit who does a 3Loop-3Loop. I think that's more difficult since so many ladies did that combo ever (anyone else besides Tara?). There are more ladies who do the 3Lz-3T (not with the same quality as Yuna though). I imagine Adelina abandoned the 3Lz-3Loop combo which is the hardest 3-3 combo (except a 3-3 with a 3A).
    I am surprised to see Yuna's base value so low. She could push herself a bit more, since she is very capable. It's sad to see a 2A-2T-2L and a 3S-2T combo from the strongest technically lady skater IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    There is a young Russian lady who will debut on the JGP circuit who does a 3Loop-3Loop.
    Natalia OGORELTSEVA, born 18 Jan 2000. Her first 3Lo+3Lo in competition - 13-16 December 2011, Panin Memorial, St Petersburg.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    I am surprised to see Yuna's base value so low.
    She did not 3Lo, so 4 different triples and 6 triples in FS, repeated 3Lz and 3S, with two 2A.
    Lower BV is because only 6 triples.

    It is not problem for her - she had very high GOE and highest jumps score in FS of all Ladies at 2012/2013 season.

  12. #12
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    There is almost no advantage for Yuna to try harder tech content, since this is the Olympic season when it's best to focus on doing what you can do well. She also doesn't have enough time for on-ice training and bringing back a 3Lo in her free skate would aggravate her chronic hip injury.

  13. #13
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirunna View Post
    I think that's more difficult since so many ladies did that combo ever (anyone else besides Tara?).
    Caroline Zhang did it at 2012 nationals. They said it was < but it looked clean to me.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...u_eBx40LE&t=67

    She did it again at 4CC. She fell out of it but the rotation was ratified.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...REKXr3Jmg&t=55

    Supposedly Samanth Cesario is trying the 3L-3L this season. She did it at Liberty last month but I don't know if it was clean or not.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhR2...etailpage&t=31

  14. #14
    Custom Title Minze2001's Avatar
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    I think Mao Chan should do 3A, 3F-3t, 3L, 3Lz,3S, 3F-2L-2L, 2A-3T,

    I don't like the 3F-3L is to hard and I don't think she will get it ratified. this season her 2A-3t was strong, so I don't think she will have a problem adding a 3t after the flip. And then if she misses the 3-3 she can add 3L-2L like she did in 2013 Worlds.

  15. #15
    Huge Scott Moir Fan Macassar88's Avatar
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    Tuk is going for the Biellmann again so I think she'll do a level four layback

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