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Thread: Senior Ladies FS 2013-2014 Base Value

  1. #16
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Natalia OGORELTSEVA, born 18 Jan 2000. Her first 3Lo+3Lo in competition - 13-16 December 2011, Panin Memorial, St Petersburg.


    She did not 3Lo, so 4 different triples and 6 triples in FS, repeated 3Lz and 3S, with two 2A.
    Lower BV is because only 6 triples.

    It is not problem for her - she had very high GOE and highest jumps score in FS of all Ladies at 2012/2013 season.
    Samantha Cesario showed a 3Lp3Lp in both the SP & LP at Liberty.
    http://www.iceworkssc.org/Liberty/Re...rLadies_SP.pdf

    In both cases, she got a < on the second loop, but they were very good attempts.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Samantha Cesario showed a 3Lp3Lp in both the SP & LP at Liberty.
    http://www.iceworkssc.org/Liberty/Re...rLadies_SP.pdf

    In both cases, she got a < on the second loop, but they were very good attempts.
    Yes, I know.
    Very good, especially for Lady who had no 3+3 combo past season.

    I just wrote some info about "a young Russian lady".

    Btw, "A young American lady won Olympics at 15" - is it polite? Tara Lipinski deserves to be named. As all the other skaters, who work hard, have injuries, risk their health to make us enjoy their nice and strong skating.

  3. #18
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Well, I do hope Samantha gets at least a Senior B. It doesn't look like she will beat out Courtney for the Skate America TBA spot. Nor should she.

  4. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Well, I do hope Samantha gets at least a Senior B. It doesn't look like she will beat out Courtney for the Skate America TBA spot. Nor should she.
    Samantha's going to be at the Salt Lake Senior B. As will Courtney. Don't you think they will wait until then to determine that TBA spot? Would make sense to base their decision on a more recent competition, and an international one at that.

  5. #20
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    It's hard to know. For one thing, one of the goals of the SkAm pick is that she should not be able to beat Ashley Wagner/current US champion...that seems to have been the thinking behind SkAm picks in the past.

    I hope they both skate well.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    It's hard to know. For one thing, one of the goals of the SkAm pick is that she should not be able to beat Ashley Wagner/current US champion...that seems to have been the thinking behind SkAm picks in the past.
    If Ashley was so easily beatable, then she wouldn't deserve to be at world team. And if she isn't so easily beatable, they don't have to worry about who they put with her to SkAm.

  7. #22
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    This is true, but is mostly not how it has worked in the past.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    It's hard to know. For one thing, one of the goals of the SkAm pick is that she should not be able to beat Ashley Wagner/current US champion...that seems to have been the thinking behind SkAm picks in the past.
    This is true, but I think Courtney will be held back by international judging panels simply because she is not a recognized skater. (At least, held back enough not to beat Ashley). I would be disappointed if Alissa were picked over Courtney, because if she was it would be for the reason you stated.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by AlexRus View Post
    Yes, I know.
    Very good, especially for Lady who had no 3+3 combo past season.

    I just wrote some info about "a young Russian lady".

    Btw, "A young American lady won Olympics at 15" - is it polite? Tara Lipinski deserves to be named. As all the other skaters, who work hard, have injuries, risk their health to make us enjoy their nice and strong skating.
    I really didn't want to be rude or something, there are so many talented Russian youngsters who are just now eligible for JGP, I can't remember all their names but I did remember there was one particularly lady who did a great 3Loop-3Loop. I will remember her name now, thanks for the clarification. I really appreciate all the information you are providing us about the Russian skaters.
    Samantha's attempt looked great to me. So did Caroline's from nationals.
    I remember someone said it's almost impossible to fully rotate the 3Loop as the second jump, which is probably why we almost never see this combo nowadays.

  10. #25
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    Base value is not a true measure of difficulty. Yuna could actually make her layout both easier and with higher BV by substituting a 2A/3T for her 3Lz/3T and repeating the Flip instead of the Salchow. Here's a layout with no triple-triple that's nearly 2 points higher in BV:

    3Lz/2T
    3F
    3S
    *3Lz
    *2A/3T/2L
    *3F/2T
    *2A

    Again, no triple-triple, no adding the 3Loop, but still higher BV. This is the quirk of CoP. Interestingly enough, Yuna is not taking the full advantage that CoP engineering affords her, but I think it's because her team is smart enough to design a program that actually maximizes her point in reality, instead of on paper. In reality, TES, GOE and PCS are not independent. Several "wow" elements such as 3Lz/3T, solo 3F and solo 3Lz, together with other clean jumping passes, will ensure her the highest GOE and PCS. Sure she could earn more points on paper with a "smarter" layout, but BV is only a small part of the overall picture.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Krislite View Post
    Base value is not a true measure of difficulty. Yuna could actually make her layout both easier and with higher BV by substituting a 2A/3T for her 3Lz/3T and repeating the Flip instead of the Salchow. Here's a layout with no triple-triple that's nearly 2 points higher in BV:

    3Lz/2T
    3F
    3S
    *3Lz
    *2A/3T/2L
    *3F/2T
    *2A

    Again, no triple-triple, no adding the 3Loop, but still higher BV. This is the quirk of CoP. Interestingly enough, Yuna is not taking the full advantage that CoP engineering affords her, but I think it's because her team is smart enough to design a program that actually maximizes her point in reality, instead of on paper. In reality, TES, GOE and PCS are not independent. Several "wow" elements such as 3Lz/3T, solo 3F and solo 3Lz, together with other clean jumping passes, will ensure her the highest GOE and PCS. Sure she could earn more points on paper with a "smarter" layout, but BV is only a small part of the overall picture.
    Yuna doesn't repeat the flip because it's been a problem jump for her in the past.

  12. #27
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    She doesn't have problem with the jump anymore. She has said that she feels more comfortable with her flip than she ever did.

    I don't think she's planning to repeat the flip though. For 1.21 points (in the second half) of BV increase, she probably doesn't think it's worth trying.

  13. #28
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    This is the updated ranking:
    1) Mao Asada: 68.65 (I considered the layout she used at 2013 Worlds and WTT because she has already said that her layout will be almost the same)
    2) Courtney Hicks: 62.83 (2013 Glacier Falls with the 3F+3T at the beginning)
    3) Gracie Gold: 62.11 (2013 Skate Milwaukee with the 2A+3T in the second half)
    4) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: 61.61 (she never usually changes her layout, I considered the 2A+3T in the second half as she did last season; I considered a level3 LSp)
    5) Zijun Li: 61.20
    6) Akiko Suzuki: 60.85 (I considered the one she attempted at her summer competition, but she could add a second loop instead of the salchow)
    7) Ashley Wagner: 60.03 (she moved the 3Lz to the second half and added the 3Lo+2A last season and I think that she'll keep these layout b/c they worked well)
    8) Anna Pogorilaya: 60.02 (as suggested by AlexRus, adding the 2 points of the ChSq to her Junior Worlds BV, but she could change her layout for her Senior debut)
    9) Alena Leonova: 59.35 (she almost never changed her layout during these last years except for the spins, so I thought that I could already consider it)
    10) Kiira Korpi: 58.91 (I considered her injury-free layout, with lutz and flip)
    11) Mirai Nagasu: 58.71 (2013 Glacier Falls)
    12) Yu-Na Kim: 58.22 (last year's layout, that won't probably change, with a level 3 LSp)
    13) Kaetlyn Osmons: 57.05 (I considered the 3F+2T in the first half as last season)

  14. #29
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    Satoko Miyahara had BV 56.87 at JGP Lake Placid 2012, it means 58.87 for Senior program.
    In fact she had BV 58.54 at Asian Open Trophy 2013, where she skated as Senior (a bit less than calculated because 2A was at 1st half of program).
    One URed jump (3Lz) both competitions. Without UR she could have more.

    JGP Event 2012 http://www.isuresults.com/results/jg..._FS_Scores.pdf
    Asian Open 2013 http://www.fsatresults.com/AOFST2013..._FS_Scores.pdf

  15. #30
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    These BVs are the maximum BVs, attained only when all elements are credited. Actual BVs are more likely to be lower when executed with possible calls of UR, wrong edges, and pops etc.

    As listed, Mao's technical content is way ahead of the whole pack. She would be hard to catch if she performs all her elements reasonably well. The rest vary within a 4 point range so the ranking will be decided by actual credited executions, GOEs, and, most importantly, PCS.

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