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Thread: Senior Ladies FS 2013-2014 Base Value

  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by mskater93 View Post
    It sounded like she made an attempt at these spins and therefore was TRYING to get the levels, otherwise she should have just done a more basic spin if it "was just a practice or exhibition". If the spin was terrible (which it sounds like it was), then why attempt it at all?
    It takes more effort to hold positions and rotations, and in an exhibition the skater is still likely to attempt their positions and whatnot, but aren't as *committed* to it as they would be in competition. A few of Chan's spins in Summer Skate, for example, wouldn't have been his typical calibre of spinning, and not all were level 4-worthy. These programs are also taking time to get used to... like ice dancers, their levels at the beginning of the season are lower as they're getting adjusted to the program and then once they're comfortable, they maximize the difficulty and effort they put into it.

  2. #62
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    Interesting Thread...

    Every lady can do 3A, 4T, 4S, etc... ON PAPER.

    It's meaningless. Poor performace is just annoying audiences.

    I wanna say, Pleeeeeease Submit the protocols what you can Really do, Not what you dreamed of!!

    Know thyself!!

  3. #63
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PftJump View Post
    Interesting Thread...

    Every lady can do 3A, 4T, 4S, etc... ON PAPER.

    It's meaningless. Poor performace is just annoying audiences.

    I wanna say, Pleeeeeease Submit the protocols what you can Really do, Not what you dreamed of!!

    Know thyself!!
    It would be better to compare the EXPECTED Base Value. That would be rather difficult to calculate, though. If we assume independence, say:

    E[total BV]=Sum of P(element)*element_bv over set of all elements in program

    I betcha the ranking would change quite a bit.

  4. #64
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    It takes more effort to hold positions and rotations, and in an exhibition the skater is still likely to attempt their positions and whatnot, but aren't as *committed* to it as they would be in competition. A few of Chan's spins in Summer Skate, for example, wouldn't have been his typical calibre of spinning, and not all were level 4-worthy. These programs are also taking time to get used to... like ice dancers, their levels at the beginning of the season are lower as they're getting adjusted to the program and then once they're comfortable, they maximize the difficulty and effort they put into it.
    While I get your point, I don't think that's what Liza was going for during the performance of her SP. She was really, really straining to hold that Biellmann position, and her back was impossibly stiff.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by PftJump View Post
    Interesting Thread...

    Every lady can do 3A, 4T, 4S, etc... ON PAPER.

    It's meaningless. Poor performace is just annoying audiences.

    I wanna say, Pleeeeeease Submit the protocols what you can Really do, Not what you dreamed of!!

    Know thyself!!
    I am not sure that I get your point. How can a skater know if the jumps/spins he attempts will be successful or not before the actual skate? Chances are that Mao won't get full credit for what she is trying, but she is going for it. She landed the 3A this season, at worlds too, not just on paper. Plus, the protocol after the competition show exactly what the skater did, not what they planned. Why should we be bothered by what the skaters are planning to do? It's strictly their own business. This thread is about planned base value, not chances of skating the program you planned, or who is more consistent, or who ends up with the highest TES in the end. It's interesting to see the skaters's strategy going to Sochi. For me it was interesting to see how even after GOE was reduced, it still plays a major factor in the overall score, more than I could imagine. If this is good or bad, I don't know. On one hand it discourage skaters from taking risks because you can get monstrous scores with an average base value (as long as the skating is the best quality, of course) but on the other hand, I would hate to see sloppy skating getting huge points just because the base value is high and the skater managed to get full credit for everything despite having multiple URs and maybe even falls, so I can see GOE's huge importance in scoring, because quality should be, in the end, the most important aspect. (as long as it is not used just to boost a skater's score, like giving +3 across the table for every non-jumping elements).
    And your comment about poor performance makes no sense in this discussion IMO and it has nothing to do with planned/executed content

  6. #66
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PftJump
    Every lady can do 3A, 4T, 4S, etc... ON PAPER.
    Huh? No, they can't
    It's every skaters own decision what content they plan for their programs - but it's content they're regularly practicing. I doubt so many ladies are really practicing 3A/4S's for their programs... Or do you want to say skaters aren't allowed to go for whatever content they want?

    Besides, if you don't like the whole "what if everyone was to skate clean"/"let's compare the planned content" thing that's fine, but this is what this thread is very obviously about - there's no real way to argue with the numbers. If you want to come up with some "how likely is that" or similar numbers, go ahead. I doubt anyone would mind...

  7. #67
    At the rink. Again. mskater93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    It takes more effort to hold positions and rotations, and in an exhibition the skater is still likely to attempt their positions and whatnot, but aren't as *committed* to it as they would be in competition. A few of Chan's spins in Summer Skate, for example, wouldn't have been his typical calibre of spinning, and not all were level 4-worthy. These programs are also taking time to get used to... like ice dancers, their levels at the beginning of the season are lower as they're getting adjusted to the program and then once they're comfortable, they maximize the difficulty and effort they put into it.
    I understand where you are going with your first comment about effort to hold positions and whatnot as I skate competitively, but if you are doing an exhibition that people are PAYING to see, either do it well or don't do it - it's an EXHIBITION which means the fans are paying to see good skating, not garbage. If it's still a work in progress and isn't at an acceptable percentage/quality in practice, then you shouldn't be doing it in exhibtion OR competition until it IS of good quality. Most coaches have a threshold that they consider acceptable before it goes into a program and this should have been considered for this exhibtion (and they should rethink that spin in general as I don't think it's going to get a level 4 at any point...)

  8. #68
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    This is the updated ranking:
    1) Mao Asada: 68.65 (I considered the layout she used at 2013 Worlds and WTT because she has already said that her layout will be almost the same)
    2) Courtney Hicks: 62.83 (2013 Glacier Falls with the 3F+3T at the beginning)
    3) Gracie Gold: 62.11 (2013 Skate Milwaukee with the 2A+3T in the second half)
    4) Elena Radionova: 61.90
    5) Elizaveta Tuktamysheva: 61.61 (she never usually changes her layout, I considered the 2A+3T in the second half as she did last season; I considered a level3 LSp)
    6) Zijun Li: 61.20
    7) Satoko Miyahara: 61.12
    8) Akiko Suzuki: 60.85 (I considered the one she attempted at her summer competition, but she could add a second loop instead of the salchow)
    9) Ashley Wagner: 60.03 (she moved the 3Lz to the second half and added the 3Lo+2A last season and I think that she'll keep these layout b/c they worked well)
    10) Anna Pogorilaya: 60.02 (as suggested by AlexRus, adding the 2 points of the ChSq to her Junior Worlds BV, but she could change her layout for her Senior debut)
    11) Alena Leonova: 59.35 (she almost never changed her layout during these last years except for the spins, so I thought that I could already consider it)
    12) Kexin Zhang: 59.33
    13) Samantha Cesario: 59.16
    14) Kiira Korpi: 58.91 (I considered her injury-free layout, with lutz and flip)
    15) Mirai Nagasu: 58.71 (2013 Glacier Falls)
    16) Yu-Na Kim: 58.22 (last year's layout, that won't probably change, with a level 3 LSp)
    17) Kaetlyn Osmons: 57.05 (I considered the 3F+2T in the first half as last season)
    18) Caroline Zhang: 56.72 (I added her because her layout never changed during the last couple of years)
    19) Elene Gedevanishvili: 50.70 (I calculated this basing on what she attempted in the video posted in the programs thread, but there isn't any 3-jumps combo so it may become slightly higher with +1.3/1.43 of a 2T or +1.8/1.98 of a 2Lo)

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