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The Olympic team event
So, how is the Olympic team thing shaping up? Five teams make the cut for the long program, which will be Russia, Canada, USA, Japan and probably Italy or China (or France?). The way the scoring goes, the teams that have at least an OK skater in every discipline will have an advantage over teams that are trying to ride a three-legged horse.
Here is my preliminary prediction for the LP only.
Virtue and Moir (2)
Duhamel and Radford (2)
Bobrova and Soloviev (3)
Volosozhar and Trankov (1)
Davis and White (1)
Denney and Coughlin (4)
Reed and Reed (5)
Capellini and Lanotte (4)
Berton and Hotarek (3)
Potential heros: Lipnitskaia could beat Kostner and Wagner and win for Russia.
Zijun Li could skate well enough in the short program for China to beat Italy for the fifth spot.
Wow, 1 point apart! It really will come down to placements like Osmond and Lipnitskaia.
Is it a combination of SP and FS placements, or do the top 5 teams move on and the slate is clean for the FS?
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Combination of placements from the short and long programs.
So the lower score the better since it's placements. Looking at this, I think Mathman's prediction is right. Canada has three medal contenders at least Patrick Chan, Virtue\Moir and Duhamel and Radford. USA's two strongest events are Dance and Ladies, Davis and White and Ashley Wagner. Japan's strength is in single skating, with Asada and the leading men, probably Takahashi. I'm sure he'll get a bye. Russia is the strongest in pairs, ladies and dance. China is strong in pairs and has a good chance with Li. Italy's strongest events are ladies, with Kostner and dance. So I'd say this prediction sounds pretty accurate. With Russia, it all depends on whether or not Plushenko is there for the men.
Thanks for the explanation of the breakdown.
Plushenko could finish a place higher (2nd) and Lipnitskaya 2 places (2nd). Also Wagner and the American man (?) could do a bit better and move the US up a spot. However, the 5th qualifying team could have a man that can set the US back a spot in the LP which could mess things up for the Americans. I'd be very surprised if gold doesn't come down between Russia and Canada.
This makes sense. I think the format is two men, two women, one pairs team and once dance team. I think Canada and Russia are evenly matched.
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
Canada is strongest in men with Patrick Chan, and the second man (I'll say Reynolds for now) being the wild card. Same with Russia, going under the assumption that Plushenko is there. Hard to say who is at an advantage, I'd say Chan, because he is younger and healthy. Close call.
Both are strong in pairs, but Russia has a slight edge with Volosozhar/Trankov.
Both are strong in dance, but this time the edge goes to Canada with Virtue/Moir, the defending Olympic Champions.
Russia is strong in women's, with whichever two teen stars go to Russia. Kaetlyn Osmond could do well, but she has been injured. So Russia goes to the edge. I'll go with Lipnitskaia for the first Russian lady skater.
For the second man, Reynolds hasn't competed a lot due to boot problems. Let's say the second man for Russia in the team is Kovtun. I'd say Canada, again. Reynolds is more experienced and finished fifth in the World last year. Question is, is he in shape?
For the second lady, I'm saying Gabrielle Daleman for Canada. Adelina Sotnikova (I have no idea if it's her who will be there I'm just saying her because she is more experienced and not to be counted out of the Russian team, it could be anyone). I'd go with Adelina for the edge.
So the Russians have the overall advantage in pairs and ladies, the Canadians have the advantage in dance and men.
I think bronze is between US and Japan.
It is two men, two ladies, one dance, and one pairs at the WTT in Japan. As I understand it, the Olympic format is one male singles, one female singles, one dance team, and one pair team. Although, different skaters can compete in SP and LP if desired and qualified.
Originally Posted by coppertop1
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