The Olympic team event
So, how is the Olympic team thing shaping up? Five teams make the cut for the long program, which will be Russia, Canada, USA, Japan and probably Italy or China (or France?). The way the scoring goes, the teams that have at least an OK skater in every discipline will have an advantage over teams that are trying to ride a three-legged horse.
Here is my preliminary prediction for the LP only.
Virtue and Moir (2)
Duhamel and Radford (2)
Bobrova and Soloviev (3)
Volosozhar and Trankov (1)
Davis and White (1)
Denney and Coughlin (4)
Reed and Reed (5)
Capellini and Lanotte (4)
Berton and Hotarek (3)
Potential heros: Lipnitskaia could beat Kostner and Wagner and win for Russia.
Zijun Li could skate well enough in the short program for China to beat Italy for the fifth spot.
Wow, 1 point apart! It really will come down to placements like Osmond and Lipnitskaia.
Is it a combination of SP and FS placements, or do the top 5 teams move on and the slate is clean for the FS?
Combination of placements from the short and long programs.
So the lower score the better since it's placements. Looking at this, I think Mathman's prediction is right. Canada has three medal contenders at least Patrick Chan, Virtue\Moir and Duhamel and Radford. USA's two strongest events are Dance and Ladies, Davis and White and Ashley Wagner. Japan's strength is in single skating, with Asada and the leading men, probably Takahashi. I'm sure he'll get a bye. Russia is the strongest in pairs, ladies and dance. China is strong in pairs and has a good chance with Li. Italy's strongest events are ladies, with Kostner and dance. So I'd say this prediction sounds pretty accurate. With Russia, it all depends on whether or not Plushenko is there for the men.
Thanks for the explanation of the breakdown.
Plushenko could finish a place higher (2nd) and Lipnitskaya 2 places (2nd). Also Wagner and the American man (?) could do a bit better and move the US up a spot. However, the 5th qualifying team could have a man that can set the US back a spot in the LP which could mess things up for the Americans. I'd be very surprised if gold doesn't come down between Russia and Canada.
This makes sense. I think the format is two men, two women, one pairs team and once dance team. I think Canada and Russia are evenly matched.
Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy
Canada is strongest in men with Patrick Chan, and the second man (I'll say Reynolds for now) being the wild card. Same with Russia, going under the assumption that Plushenko is there. Hard to say who is at an advantage, I'd say Chan, because he is younger and healthy. Close call.
Both are strong in pairs, but Russia has a slight edge with Volosozhar/Trankov.
Both are strong in dance, but this time the edge goes to Canada with Virtue/Moir, the defending Olympic Champions.
Russia is strong in women's, with whichever two teen stars go to Russia. Kaetlyn Osmond could do well, but she has been injured. So Russia goes to the edge. I'll go with Lipnitskaia for the first Russian lady skater.
For the second man, Reynolds hasn't competed a lot due to boot problems. Let's say the second man for Russia in the team is Kovtun. I'd say Canada, again. Reynolds is more experienced and finished fifth in the World last year. Question is, is he in shape?
For the second lady, I'm saying Gabrielle Daleman for Canada. Adelina Sotnikova (I have no idea if it's her who will be there I'm just saying her because she is more experienced and not to be counted out of the Russian team, it could be anyone). I'd go with Adelina for the edge.
So the Russians have the overall advantage in pairs and ladies, the Canadians have the advantage in dance and men.
I think bronze is between US and Japan.
It is two men, two ladies, one dance, and one pairs at the WTT in Japan. As I understand it, the Olympic format is one male singles, one female singles, one dance team, and one pair team. Although, different skaters can compete in SP and LP if desired and qualified.
Originally Posted by coppertop1
Missing Tdizzle and SDiggity
Correct re one entry in each discipline for the Olympic team event.
Originally Posted by rvi5
But for each country, only two disciplines are allowed to have different competitors in the SP (or SD) and FS (or FD).
(The rules for the Olympic team event are explained within this 12-page PDF from the ISU. See Annex A, starting on page 5.
To illustrate the disadvantage that a team has if they are weak in one area, suppose the short program for Italy goes
Capellini and Lanotte (3)
Berton and Hotarek (4)
Pang and Tong (2)
Both are beaten by a solid middle of the road team that goes 4th, 4th,4th, 5th (17)
On the other hand, among the ten qualifying teams there will be several who cannot field competitive pairs or dancers. A lot depends on whether, say, the Chinese dance team can finish sixth or seventh instead of ninth or tenth.
This is where Japan is at a disadvantage, with their pairs and dance not as strong. I predict bronze between Japan and the US
After the short program:
Japanese pairs team (10)
Japanese dance team (10)
Total 23. They may be kept off the podium for that
Reed and Reed may do better than tenth, though. Each country can send only one team, Japan is not the only country that does not have a contender in dance, and some countries may have a dance team but they are not in the competition at all, not having made the top ten overall. Reed and Reed should beat China's team, for instance.
Can someone explain exactly how this event will work? It seems there will be a short program. How much will it count versus the long? Will the same skater have to skate the short and the long?
Thanks to golden411 for looking up the rules and posting them on the Plushenko/Kovtun thread.
Ten countries qualify for the team competition. There is a short program. Each country's team comprises one man, one lady, one pairs couple and one dance couple. The team members must be skaters that have already earned a place in the individual competitions to come later, with some exceptions allowed. Only placements are carried forward, not CoP points.
The top five teams advance to the long program. It general the same skaters that contested the short program will also skate the long, but a country with deep talent is permitted to make a substitution in one or two disciplines if desired. (For instance Japan could go with Hanyu in the short, Takahashi in the long.) The placements in the long program are added to the placements in the short program to determine the overall winner.
This puts a lot of emphasis on the short program (no factored placements!)
SP: Chan (1)
Duhamel and Radford (3)
Virtue and Moir (1)
LP: Chan (1)
Skating is art, if you let it be.
The rules are a mess. The short program actually counts MORE than the LP, because in the LP only 5 countries are allowed to compete. If you bomb the LP, it doesn't hurt your standing nearly as much as it could in the SP, and it also greatly helps teams that are very weak in certain disciplines.
SP specialists will be major contributors here. This favors a nation with deep field(s). I don't see any reason Japan wouldn't have Hanyu skate the SP and another Man LP, Takahashi if he goes to Sochi. Both would have reserve for the Single event.
What about Russia, Japan, and the US for the Ladies? What American Men will skate the programs? The Chinese Pairs?