Super early predictions on ladies Grand Prix | Golden Skate

Super early predictions on ladies Grand Prix

koatcue

Medalist
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
Country
Russia
I saw different threads where people try to guess what places senior competitors are going to get. I decided opening the thread about senior and junior girls who are going to participate in the upcoming gp season.

So you can write your guesses here :)

The first senior event is SA. So what are your thoughts?
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
SA: Wagner, Asada, Tukt

Justification: Asada usually builds momentum as the season goes on, and Wagner, being on home ice, will have the crowd on her side to boost her confidence. Tukt and Radionova will fight for 3rd, but with Tukt's stronger skating skills/higher PCS, I expect her to barely eke out the victory.

This is, as always, merely my educated guess.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
goody its back, lol

SA: Wagner, Asada, Radionova
in that order

Mao doesnt have a great track record skating in the US
Wagner will be in home crowd and inflation will be there
 

Finnstep

Final Flight
Joined
Apr 5, 2013
Radionova wins GPF. My guess is one or both of Kostner and Kim won't compete at the final.

If Yu-Na and/or Kostner qualifies for the final, aren't they required to compete there(with few exceptions, such as injuries/family member passing away)?

Or, has there been any other case of a skater withdrawing from GPF for any other reasons? I've never looked at the ISU rules close enough to see if it's possible for a skater to simply skip the GPF.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
SA: Wagner, Asada, Tukt

Justification: Asada usually builds momentum as the season goes on, and Wagner, being on home ice, will have the crowd on her side to boost her confidence. Tukt and Radionova will fight for 3rd, but with Tukt's stronger skating skills/higher PCS, I expect her to barely eke out the victory.

This is, as always, merely my educated guess.

I hope Mao starts the year strong. I think in 2010 Mao gave up a lot of ground to Yuna by not skating well early in the season and she needs to have a strong season this time to be a gold medal threat in the judge's minds.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Radionova wins GPF. My guess is one or both of Kostner and Kim won't compete at the final.

That is highly unlikely on both counts. The only reason Kostner/Kim wouldn't compete is due to injury. Obviously Kim is more assured than Kostner, but it's still a pretty sure thing both will compete.

As for Radianova winning, she is still really under-developed in terms of artistry. However, I could picture her doing what Tuktamysheva did in her first GP season, and skate technically superior performances, and steal a win (or at least a silver) from the favourites, and has a good shot at making the final.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I think Tukt in her debut season had far more of the all-around package than does Radionova now. I can't see her besting at least one of Wagner and Asada at SA for silver, but she could wind up with bronze if Tukt falters. At NHK, Radionova will face a similarly tough field that includes Asada, Suzuki, Gold, Li, and Nagasu. Highly unlikely that she'll top three or four of the above. She might eke out a 4th place finish there, but even that would be an impressive feat.
 

sky_fly20

Match Penalty
Joined
Nov 20, 2011
I think Tukt in her debut season had far more of the all-around package than does Radionova now. I can't see her besting at least one of Wagner and Asada at SA for silver, but she could wind up with bronze if Tukt falters. At NHK, Radionova will face a similarly tough field that includes Asada, Suzuki, Gold, Li, and Nagasu. Highly unlikely that she'll top three or four of the above. She might eke out a 4th place finish there, but even that would be an impressive feat.

agreed, Tuk had better skating skills on her debut than Radionova
she still looks very light and very much a junior with her wobbly jumps
the best she'll be fighting for is bronze, silver if only the favorites have a huge spaltfest
 

IleK

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 11, 2012
This is a prediction and also a wish: 1.Ashley, 2.Mao, 3.Elena, 4.Liza, 5.Valentina.
I haven't seen anything from Ashley yet but I trust her and I really would like her to win here, with or without the inflation. I think she fairly deserve it last year even if they gave her extra points for home skating. This happens everywhere. I've seen Mao SP, Elena SP and LP, Liza SP and Valentina SP and all are beautiful except Liza's.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
I thought you didn't have to compete at GPF if you don't want to, for someone like Yuna or Carolina, it could just be extra pressure that they don't need or want right before the Olympics.
 

ForeverFish

Medalist
Joined
Aug 21, 2012
I thought you didn't have to compete at GPF if you don't want to, for someone like Yuna or Carolina, it could just be extra pressure that they don't need or want right before the Olympics.

I'm not clear on the rules about dropping out of the GPF, but I can't imagine that a healthy Yuna or Carolina would shy away from the "pressure." They're fiercely competitive; it's just not their way. What would an unexplained withdrawal look like to the international audience and judges?

They don't meet on the GP, so the GPF will be their first and last big chance to show their mettle before the Olympics, and to see how they stack up relative to each other. Plus, Yuna competed in (and won) the GPF during the last Olympic season with far more pressure to deliver, so I don't see why she would drop out this time around.
 

Robeye

Final Flight
Joined
Feb 16, 2010
I thought you didn't have to compete at GPF if you don't want to, for someone like Yuna or Carolina, it could just be extra pressure that they don't need or want right before the Olympics.
I haven't looked up the rules, but I find it extremely difficult to imagine that, in agreeing with the ISU to participate in the GPs, a skater is not also automatically agreeing to participate in the GPF if qualified.

I know some have reservations about the collective intelligence of Speedy and the ISU, but...really? :laugh:
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
1. Wagner
2. Asada
3. Radionova
4. Tuktamysheva

I do think Ashley will bounce back well from her not so great 2nd half of the season from last season. She did well at WTT and with a renewed focus and something to prove, I think she'll be really motivated to put her best foot forward. However, if she's going for that 3-3 things could turn out differently. If she's not secure with it yet, she may leave the door open for Mao...

Mao will be good but not 100% ready. I can't recall a time she ever started off the season in form. She's a slow burn kind of skater; she warms up as the season progresses so that by the time nationals rolls around in December, she starts to sizzle. I think she'll be solid here but with Ashley on home turf, it will be tough for her (Mao) to get the win. Then again, if Ashley starts off shaky which is a possibility b/c of the new element she's adding, Mao could come out on top.

Both of Elena's programs have impressed me. She does have a distinctly "fresh off the JGP" look about her (tiny, long and spindly) and her style and presentation are still on the juniorish side; however, girlfriend has spark, charisma and personality for days! She is amazingly expressive when she skates and is very good at drawing in an audience. Her jumps aren't of senior quality yet (speed, ride out, etc.) but on base value alone she'll put herself in the mix. She was a pretty solid skater last year but that often changes when juniors make the jump to senior (bigger stage, more pressure). Her test skates looked pretty solid though. I think she may be a wrench this season...go on and throw her in and watch her shake up the standings a bit.

I think Liza T is going to take some time to find her stride. Her program looks very underwhelming at this point...the judges may be sick of seeing the same thing from her. She's somewhat stagnant in her PCS. We all know seniority/reputation is what carries senior skaters over the juniors who often have harder content but less experience/maturity. Liza T's PCS aren't that good to begin with b/c of issues in her skating and her inconsistency doesn't help her case either. I don't think the judges would give her a leg up over Elena if Elena skated cleanly and Liza T didn't. Elena is fresh, energetic and cute as button with lively programs and lots of charisma to boot. If Liza T wants to be on that podium, she has to deliver.

Of course all of this can change in the blink of an eye. I have no idea what condition the ladies will be in come competition time but, purely on speculation, I think that's how it will play out.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
From ISU Communication No. 1811 (Aug 2013):
“Concerned” and/or “Seeded/Come-Back” Skaters/Couples who agreed to participate in the Grand Prix Series and Skaters/Couples who qualify for the Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final must skate in their assigned events and in the Final. Withdrawals are permitted only for illness or injury duly confirmed by a timely Medical Certificate as outlined in the annual General Grand Prix Announcement and subject to review by an ISU appointed Medical Doctor and/or for other justified serious reasons, such as e.g. bereavement in the close family.

What is not clear is what the penalty for skipping the GPF would be.
 

kwanatic

Check out my YT channel, Bare Ice!
Record Breaker
Joined
May 19, 2011
What is not clear is what the penalty for skipping the GPF would be.

Blacklisted forever, probably...if not something much harsher. I'd think you may lose your competing privileges, like a suspension or something.
 

drivingmissdaisy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 17, 2010
If they did skip, I'm sure they would say it is because of an injury or illness and therefore not be penalized. It's hard to prove someone wasn't injured.
 

TheCzar

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 30, 2013
If they did skip, I'm sure they would say it is because of an injury or illness and therefore not be penalized. It's hard to prove someone wasn't injured.

I don't know. these days, I would assume that the ISU would demand a doctor's note of some sort regarding an illness or injury. If it is either an illness or injury, there's definitely more than enough time to get diagnosed and provide evidence as such.
 
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