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Thread: Super early predictions on ladies Grand Prix

  1. #16
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    1. Wagner
    2. Asada
    3. Radionova
    4. Tuktamysheva

    I do think Ashley will bounce back well from her not so great 2nd half of the season from last season. She did well at WTT and with a renewed focus and something to prove, I think she'll be really motivated to put her best foot forward. However, if she's going for that 3-3 things could turn out differently. If she's not secure with it yet, she may leave the door open for Mao...

    Mao will be good but not 100% ready. I can't recall a time she ever started off the season in form. She's a slow burn kind of skater; she warms up as the season progresses so that by the time nationals rolls around in December, she starts to sizzle. I think she'll be solid here but with Ashley on home turf, it will be tough for her (Mao) to get the win. Then again, if Ashley starts off shaky which is a possibility b/c of the new element she's adding, Mao could come out on top.

    Both of Elena's programs have impressed me. She does have a distinctly "fresh off the JGP" look about her (tiny, long and spindly) and her style and presentation are still on the juniorish side; however, girlfriend has spark, charisma and personality for days! She is amazingly expressive when she skates and is very good at drawing in an audience. Her jumps aren't of senior quality yet (speed, ride out, etc.) but on base value alone she'll put herself in the mix. She was a pretty solid skater last year but that often changes when juniors make the jump to senior (bigger stage, more pressure). Her test skates looked pretty solid though. I think she may be a wrench this season...go on and throw her in and watch her shake up the standings a bit.

    I think Liza T is going to take some time to find her stride. Her program looks very underwhelming at this point...the judges may be sick of seeing the same thing from her. She's somewhat stagnant in her PCS. We all know seniority/reputation is what carries senior skaters over the juniors who often have harder content but less experience/maturity. Liza T's PCS aren't that good to begin with b/c of issues in her skating and her inconsistency doesn't help her case either. I don't think the judges would give her a leg up over Elena if Elena skated cleanly and Liza T didn't. Elena is fresh, energetic and cute as button with lively programs and lots of charisma to boot. If Liza T wants to be on that podium, she has to deliver.

    Of course all of this can change in the blink of an eye. I have no idea what condition the ladies will be in come competition time but, purely on speculation, I think that's how it will play out.

  2. #17
    Gambatte, Max Aaron/"No letting off the gas pedal" golden411's Avatar
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    From ISU Communication No. 1811 (Aug 2013):
    “Concerned” and/or “Seeded/Come-Back” Skaters/Couples who agreed to participate in the Grand Prix Series and Skaters/Couples who qualify for the Grand Prix of Figure Skating Final must skate in their assigned events and in the Final. Withdrawals are permitted only for illness or injury duly confirmed by a timely Medical Certificate as outlined in the annual General Grand Prix Announcement and subject to review by an ISU appointed Medical Doctor and/or for other justified serious reasons, such as e.g. bereavement in the close family.

    What is not clear is what the penalty for skipping the GPF would be.

  3. #18
    Rejoicing in the land of Kwan kwanatic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    What is not clear is what the penalty for skipping the GPF would be.
    Blacklisted forever, probably...if not something much harsher. I'd think you may lose your competing privileges, like a suspension or something.

  4. #19
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    If they did skip, I'm sure they would say it is because of an injury or illness and therefore not be penalized. It's hard to prove someone wasn't injured.

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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    If they did skip, I'm sure they would say it is because of an injury or illness and therefore not be penalized. It's hard to prove someone wasn't injured.
    I don't know. these days, I would assume that the ISU would demand a doctor's note of some sort regarding an illness or injury. If it is either an illness or injury, there's definitely more than enough time to get diagnosed and provide evidence as such.

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    I would predict that this is how it would go:

    1. Wagner- home ice + her record of usually starting strong should suffice. However, I will keep in mind her late coaching change and see how it affects her skating. Remember, Asada's first outing after joining forces with Arutunian wasn't all that great. It got better by the time Worlds came around (but then that may be more Asada's tendency to burn slowly). She 'seems' hungry for it and adamant to prove her critics from Nationals wrong. Going into Olympic season too, I'm pretty certain that she will have her game face on to keep her momentum and keep the judges' trust.

    2. Asada- at best I would say Mao will come in second. If she goes conservative and do the way she did last season, she can eke out a win from under Ashley by a point or two, but since she's already said she wants to start the season with the planned difficulty to get her steam going, then chances are she will pop (or double/two-foot) planned 3A and lose points. However, the past season showed that she can be propped up by her PCS scores. The judges also seem to reward her artistry more so than in the past, so even with a couple of mistakes (at the most- and that includes the possibility of a doubled salchow) she can stay in the top 2.

    3. Tuktamysheva. I am aware that Radionova has garnered quite a following already and being the fresh face will put enormous pressure on her. She can even shock us and steal the gold, but as ugly and horrendous Tuk's SP this year, if she pulls off the technical in both programs, it should be enough. I wish she would drop the Biellman and work on a wonderful layback instead, but you never know what Mishin thinks. I've not completely lost faith on Tuk but her campaign for the Olympic season can start or end here.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCzar View Post
    I would predict that this is how it would go:

    1. Wagner- home ice + her record of usually starting strong should suffice. However, I will keep in mind her late coaching change and see how it affects her skating. Remember, Asada's first outing after joining forces with Arutunian wasn't all that great. It got better by the time Worlds came around (but then that may be more Asada's tendency to burn slowly). She 'seems' hungry for it and adamant to prove her critics from Nationals wrong. Going into Olympic season too, I'm pretty certain that she will have her game face on to keep her momentum and keep the judges' trust.

    2. Asada- at best I would say Mao will come in second. If she goes conservative and do the way she did last season, she can eke out a win from under Ashley by a point or two, but since she's already said she wants to start the season with the planned difficulty to get her steam going, then chances are she will pop (or double/two-foot) planned 3A and lose points. However, the past season showed that she can be propped up by her PCS scores. The judges also seem to reward her artistry more so than in the past, so even with a couple of mistakes (at the most- and that includes the possibility of a doubled salchow) she can stay in the top 2.

    3. Tuktamysheva. I am aware that Radionova has garnered quite a following already and being the fresh face will put enormous pressure on her. She can even shock us and steal the gold, but as ugly and horrendous Tuk's programs are this year, if she pulls off the technical in both programs, it should be enough. I wish she would drop the Biellman and work on a wonderful layback instead, but you never know what Mishin thinks. I've not completely lost faith on Tuk but her campaign for the Olympic season can start or end here.
    Plural? I didn't know her FS was "in the public eye" yet, so to speak - are there videos? I ask because, if there are, point me to them, please! (Note: the Estonia SP one I've seen; it's the FS I'm asking about.)

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    Plural? I didn't know her FS was "in the public eye" yet, so to speak - are there videos? I ask because, if there are, point me to them, please! (Note: the Estonia SP one I've seen; it's the FS I'm asking about.)
    oops! Sorry I did mean just the SP. Pardon the typo!

    *edited.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCzar View Post
    oops! Sorry I did mean just the SP. Pardon the typo!

    *edited.
    Typos happen to everyone - I was thinking that I might have missed the video; and I'm really curious about it, so....

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCzar View Post
    I don't know. these days, I would assume that the ISU would demand a doctor's note of some sort regarding an illness or injury. If it is either an illness or injury, there's definitely more than enough time to get diagnosed and provide evidence as such.
    I'm sure Yuna or Carolina could produce a doctor's note if needed

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by drivingmissdaisy View Post
    I'm sure Yuna or Carolina could produce a doctor's note if needed

  12. #27
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    Hmmm..There is the potential for an upset at SA. Remember that for Radionova there will be almost no pressure since she cannot go to the Olympics and all the focus will be on the other Russian ladies. Asada, Wagner and Tukt will be feeling the pressure. If Asada underotates a couple of jumps, Wagner goes down on her 3/3 and Tukt hasn't improved since the end of last season while Radionova throws down a 7 triple program including a 3/3 she could jump ahead (pun intended). She really looked solid at the Russian test skate and I think I read somewhere that in ladies, the reigning world junior champion nearly always to make the senior Grand Prix final the following season. So with that said my prediction is:
    1. Radionova
    2. Wagner
    3.Asada

  13. #28
    Miserere Nobis
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    I think Skate Canada is a much better candidate for prediction and (friendly ) debate, actually.

    My thoughts: Kim, Gold, Suzuki

    Justification: Yuna almost never arrives at a competition unprepared, and even in a field this tough, she'll be head-and-shoulders above the rest as long as she does what she's capable of. Gracie, after Yuna, is the strongest technician of the bunch -- and she's making strides in her artistry that should see a rise in PCS. Akiko, although without the technical difficulty of the former two, has shown that she's capable of massive scores (see 2013 WTT for proof). However, if either Gracie or Akiko falters, I could see any of Kaetlyn, Julia, or Kiira surging forward to take their places.

  14. #29
    Custom Title skateluvr's Avatar
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    Yuna wins both GP events-assuming she does two. She wins GPF by 10-15 points. She is unbeatable through Sochi. Everyone else gets run over and intimidated by her Witt like confidence. Ladies sadly ain't gonna be a horse race this Olympics either. Thankfully, Worlds will see the new kids driving the boat in 2014.

  15. #30
    Six Point Zero Krislite's Avatar
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    What's with all this silly talk of Yuna or Carolina pulling out of the GPF? It's an Olympic season, people. They both have two GP slots, which they can both easily win. On the other hand, Carolina might withdraw from Europeans and Yuna will almost certainly skip 4CC. But 2013 Worlds + the 2013 GP series sets the stage for the Sochi games. They will both be at the Final barring some awful injury.

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