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Thread: Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

  1. #91
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    Have been saying this from the beginning. I don't think Evan has a chance in #$%& to place at the Olympics. I personally think he got very lucky in Vancouver and had alot of help from inept performances from other skaters. As far as Nationals.....it's going to be whoever skates clean. A clean Jeremy Abbott will leave Evan in the dust. His technical skills and performance skills are far and above Evan's IMO. And he's been competing for 4 years and Evan hasn't. A clean Jason Brown could beat both of them. It's been a long time since anyone from the US has had the panache and personality on the ice as Jason...and having seen him land 2 triple axels beautifully in a show program......and assuming he has his quad....the guy could be unbeatable. And then there are always the dark horses....Adam Rippon (don't laugh...) Ross Miner (okay, go ahead and laugh) and a couple others. Evan has his work cut out for him and like someone upthread said about Plush, it remains to be seen what he's going to bring to the ice. But I think we all should stop putting these guys into a competitive situation successfully - sight unseen - based on what they did 4 years ago!!!! Four years in men of a certain age in figure skating might as well be 10 years.

    And all of that having been said, I am definitely looking forward to sitting in the audience in Boston and watching how US Nats plays out!!!!

    p.s. notice I didn't mention Max Aaron. Not a fan, although he's a really nice young man. I just don't like his herky-jerky style and he's going to lose points on presentation. Now I will sit back and field the tomatoes that will no doubt be thrown my way. Whatever.

  2. #92
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    Well, most comebacks haven't gone that well in terms of medals, such as Boitano, Witt, Torvill/Dean in 2004; Sasha more recently, etc. Of course for a few a comeback has been golden, such as with G/G.

    But I tend to think unless Evan truly is in it for the experience (and I think he may be, perhaps because he simply is not as fulfilled and happy when out of training for competition than when in training and competition), he stands to lose a bit in terms of rep and renown. Why tarnish a gold by falling far off the podium, or not making the team?

    One thing, though, is that Evan has surely thought over all the many possible results and consequences far more than anybody else, and I do suspect he is prepared for all possible outcomes. He'll keep an always-look-forward attitude whatever happens.

  3. #93
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    rally - I agree. That's why I think if he doesn't do well at Skate America we may not see him at Nationals.

  4. #94
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    SkAm? What about SLC?

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by noskates View Post
    rally - I agree. That's why I think if he doesn't do well at Skate America we may not see him at Nationals.
    You think he'll get as far as SkAm? He comes across Aaron and Farris at SLC. I'm picking he doesn't make it past that.

  6. #96
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    I am sure he has something up his sleeve. Evan is a competitor. He is smart. He maximizes everything thta is how he beat Plushy in 2010. He is not inately artistic and technically not the best but he come s up big when others falter. He is not "special" - good but not a persona like Witt, tecnically brilliant like Plushy, Yagudin, Slutskaya, he is not a personality like Bonaly, Cadelero or a real all around skater like Lambiel, Buttle, Chan or Browning or atistically intrinsic like Daisuke, Igor Bobrin in his days or Oksana Baiul. He is almost a Kimmie Meissner with an OGM.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I am sure he has something up his sleeve. Evan is a competitor. He is smart. He maximizes everything thta is how he beat Plushy in 2010. He is not inately artistic and technically not the best but he come s up big when others falter. He is not "special" - good but not a persona like Witt, tecnically brilliant like Plushy, Yagudin, Slutskaya, he is not a personality like Bonaly, Cadelero or a real all around skater like Lambiel, Buttle, Chan or Browning or atistically intrinsic like Daisuke, Igor Bobrin in his days or Oksana Baiul. He is almost a Kimmie Meissner with an OGM.
    I predict a 1/7 jumping layout in the Free skate and a 1/2 jump layout in the SP.

  8. #98
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    No way is Evan going to get a bronze medal in Sochi unless everyone else completely melts down. 3rd place, you serious? He'd probably need to do 3 (maybe 4) quads between his 2 programs to wind up on the podium. Four years ago we saw Evan try a quad ONCE in his competitive season and the result was a 4t< fall. He doesn't have the skating skills of Chan or the performance ability of Takahashi, and they have been competing and doing quads in recent seasons. Lysacek can maybe make the lower top 10 in Sochi if he even makes the team at all. He just won't be competitive. We all saw Joubert get relegated to 9th at Worlds last season, and that was WITH him landing 3 quads!! 3rd place in Sochi means Evan would have to beat at least one of Chan, Hanyu, and Fernandez, and hold off ALL the other challengers (Takahashi, Aaron, Reynolds, Abbott/other US entrant, Brezina, Amodio, Kozuka/Mura (or whoever the 3rd Japanese entrant is), Joubert, etc.). I just do not see that happening at this point.

  9. #99
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    Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

    Here are the details of the quads (including Evan's) attempted in major international competitions in the four seasons leading up to Vancouver:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...uad.html#tab=0
    What a difference it's been these last four years. I'd love to see an updated list.
    Last edited by dorispulaski; 08-31-2013 at 05:43 PM.

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by ang709 View Post
    Here are the details of the quads (including Evan's) attempted in major international competitions in the four seasons leading up to Vancouver:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...uad.html#tab=0
    What a difference it's been these last four years. I'd love to see an updated list.
    Thanks for the link - that was really interesting! And yes, I agree - so would I!

  11. #101
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    LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!
    Yeah, it would probably have to be limited to the top 10 finishers from Worlds or something...

    Javi would have a much better rating now.

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by ang709 View Post
    Here are the details of the quads (including Evan's) attempted in major international competitions in the four seasons leading up to Vancouver:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...uad.html#tab=0
    What a difference it's been these last four years. I'd love to see an updated list.
    LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!
    CHALLENGE ACCEPTED.

    Using the top ten skaters of the most current World championships, quad attempts from 2010-2011 to present (A-level competitions, no National championships):

    # of attempts = how many times I saw 4__ in the protocols (i.e. I didn't assume that a solo 3T = planned 4T).

    1. Patrick Chan
      • # of attempts, success rate: 20/35 = 57.1%
      • With +GOE: [[20]] == 2010 SC FS (1), 2010 COR SP (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (2), 2011 TEB FS (2), 2012 4CC FS (2), 2012 WC FS (2), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (2)
      • With -GOE: [[15]] == 2010 SC SP (1), 2010 COR FS (1), 2010 GPF SP (1), 2011 WC FS (2), 2011 SC SP (1), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (2), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1)
    2. Denis Ten
      • # of attempts, success rate: 5/13 = 38.4%
      • With +GOE: [[4]] == 2012 WC FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
      • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2012 SC SP (1)
      • With -GOE: [[8]] == 2011 SC FS (1), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 SC FS (2), 2012 COR SP (1), 2011 SA FS (1)
    3. Javier Fernandez
      • # of attempts, success rate: 26/38 = 68.4%
      • With +GOE: [[26]] == 2010 SC FS (1), 2011 WC LP (1, T), 2011 COR SP (1), 2011 SC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (1, S), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (2), 2012 WC FS (1, T), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 SC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (2), 2012 GPF FS (3), 2011 EUR FS (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1, S), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 EUR FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (2)
      • With -GOE: [[12]] == 2010 COR FS (1), 2011 COR FS (2), 2011 WC LP (1, S), 2011 SC FS (1, T), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 WC FS (1, S), 2012 NHK FS (2), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1, T), 2013 EUR SP (1)
    4. Yuzuru Hanyu
      • # of attempts, success rate: 15/24 = 62.5%
      • With +GOE: [[15]] == 2010 NHK FS (1), 2011 4CC SP (1), 2011 COC FS (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 NHK FS (1, T), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2010 SA FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[9]] == 2011 COR SP (1), 2011 COR FS (1), 2011 COC SP (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1, S), 2012 SA FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
    5. Kevin Reynolds (He attempted a 4Lo at least once.)
      • # of attempts, success rate: 38.9%
      • With +GOE: [[14]] == 2010 SC SP (2), 2010 SC FS (2), 2011 COC FS (2), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 WC (1), 2012 NHK FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (3)
      • With -GOE: [[22]] == 2011 4CC SP (2), 2011 4CC FS (2), 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 WC FS (2), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2011 COC SP (1), 2011 COC FS (2), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 COC SP (1), 2012 COC FS (1), 2013 WC FS (3), 2013 4CC SP (2)
    6. Daisuke Takahashi (A few of his attempts were 4Fs, unlike anyone else on this list.)
      • # of attempts, success rate: 8/26 = 30.7%
      • With +GOE: [[7]] == 2010 NHK FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1, +3T<<), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 GPF (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2010 SA FS (1)
      • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2012 GPF FS (1, +3T<)
      • With -GOE: [[18]] == 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 4CC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 COC SP (1), 2012 COC FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC SP (2)
    7. Max Aaron
      • # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
      • With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
      • With -GOE: None!
    8. Takahito Mura
      • # of attempts, success rate: 6/12 = 50%
      • With +GOE: [[5]] == 2010 NHK SP (1), 2010 NHK FS (1), 2012 4CC (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2013 4CC FS (1)
      • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2010 SA FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[6]] == 2010 SA SP (1), 2012 SC SP (1), 2012 TEB SP (1), 2012 TEB FS (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1)
    9. Brian JouBEAR
      • # of attempts, success rate: 9/16 = 56.3%
      • With +GOE: [[9]] == 2011 WC FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 TEB SP (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2011 EUR FS (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2013 EUR FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[7]] == 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2012 TEB FS (1), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
    10. Michal Brezina
      • # of attempts, success rate: 5/20 = 25%
      • With +GOE: [[5]] == 2011 WC FS (2), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 EUR FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1)
      • With -GOE: [[15]] == 2011 COR FS (1),2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2012 WC FS (2), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 SA FS (2), 2013 EUR FS (1), 2013 WC FS (2)


    *Disclaimer: Results may be a bit skewed due to the omission of B-level competitions.

    I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)

    I was also going to add Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Tomas Verner, and Evgeni Plushenko on this list as "honorable mentions" (the former three kept popping up in the protocols), but I got really tired.

  14. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    No way is Evan going to get a bronze medal in Sochi unless everyone else completely melts down. 3rd place, you serious? He'd probably need to do 3 (maybe 4) quads between his 2 programs to wind up on the podium. Four years ago we saw Evan try a quad ONCE in his competitive season and the result was a 4t< fall. He doesn't have the skating skills of Chan or the performance ability of Takahashi, and they have been competing and doing quads in recent seasons. Lysacek can maybe make the lower top 10 in Sochi if he even makes the team at all. He just won't be competitive.
    Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....

  15. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)
    I would say you're beyond amazing! Thank you so much!
    It's really interesting to me to see on this list how much higher success the men have had landing the quad these last four years compared to the previous four.

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