Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious | Page 6 | Golden Skate

Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

gmyers

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Joined
Mar 6, 2010
LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!
 

ang709

Rinkside
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Dec 28, 2006
LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!

Yeah, it would probably have to be limited to the top 10 finishers from Worlds or something...

Javi would have a much better rating now. :)
 

aftertherain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Here are the details of the quads (including Evan's) attempted in major international competitions in the four seasons leading up to Vancouver:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2010/02/18/sports/olympics/0218-quad.html#tab=0
What a difference it's been these last four years. I'd love to see an updated list.
LOL it would probably take forever to make a chart like that now and maybe half an hour to get through!

CHALLENGE ACCEPTED.

Using the top ten skaters of the most current World championships, quad attempts from 2010-2011 to present (A-level competitions, no National championships):

# of attempts = how many times I saw 4__ in the protocols (i.e. I didn't assume that a solo 3T = planned 4T).

  1. Patrick Chan
    • # of attempts, success rate: 20/35 = 57.1%
    • With +GOE: [[20]] == 2010 SC FS (1), 2010 COR SP (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (2), 2011 TEB FS (2), 2012 4CC FS (2), 2012 WC FS (2), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (2)
    • With -GOE: [[15]] == 2010 SC SP (1), 2010 COR FS (1), 2010 GPF SP (1), 2011 WC FS (2), 2011 SC SP (1), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (2), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1)
  2. Denis Ten
    • # of attempts, success rate: 5/13 = 38.4%
    • With +GOE: [[4]] == 2012 WC FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
    • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2012 SC SP (1)
    • With -GOE: [[8]] == 2011 SC FS (1), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 SC FS (2), 2012 COR SP (1), 2011 SA FS (1)
  3. Javier Fernandez
    • # of attempts, success rate: 26/38 = 68.4%
    • With +GOE: [[26]] == 2010 SC FS (1), 2011 WC LP (1, T), 2011 COR SP (1), 2011 SC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (1, S), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (2), 2012 WC FS (1, T), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 SC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (2), 2012 GPF FS (3), 2011 EUR FS (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1, S), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 EUR FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (2)
    • With -GOE: [[12]] == 2010 COR FS (1), 2011 COR FS (2), 2011 WC LP (1, S), 2011 SC FS (1, T), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 WC FS (1, S), 2012 NHK FS (2), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1, T), 2013 EUR SP (1)
  4. Yuzuru Hanyu
    • # of attempts, success rate: 15/24 = 62.5%
    • With +GOE: [[15]] == 2010 NHK FS (1), 2011 4CC SP (1), 2011 COC FS (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 NHK FS (1, T), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2010 SA FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[9]] == 2011 COR SP (1), 2011 COR FS (1), 2011 COC SP (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1, S), 2012 SA FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
  5. Kevin Reynolds (He attempted a 4Lo at least once.)
    • # of attempts, success rate: 38.9%
    • With +GOE: [[14]] == 2010 SC SP (2), 2010 SC FS (2), 2011 COC FS (2), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 WC (1), 2012 NHK FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (3)
    • With -GOE: [[22]] == 2011 4CC SP (2), 2011 4CC FS (2), 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 WC FS (2), 2011 TEB SP (1), 2011 COC SP (1), 2011 COC FS (2), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 COC SP (1), 2012 COC FS (1), 2013 WC FS (3), 2013 4CC SP (2)
  6. Daisuke Takahashi (A few of his attempts were 4Fs, unlike anyone else on this list.)
    • # of attempts, success rate: 8/26 = 30.7%
    • With +GOE: [[7]] == 2010 NHK FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1, +3T<<), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 GPF (1), 2012 GPF FS (1), 2010 SA FS (1)
    • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2012 GPF FS (1, +3T<)
    • With -GOE: [[18]] == 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 4CC SP (1), 2011 SC FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1), 2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 4CC SP (1), 2012 4CC FS (1), 2012 NHK SP (1), 2012 NHK FS (1), 2012 COC SP (1), 2012 COC FS (2), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC SP (2)
  7. Max Aaron
    • # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
    • With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
    • With -GOE: None!
  8. Takahito Mura
    • # of attempts, success rate: 6/12 = 50%
    • With +GOE: [[5]] == 2010 NHK SP (1), 2010 NHK FS (1), 2012 4CC (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2013 4CC FS (1)
    • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2010 SA FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[6]] == 2010 SA SP (1), 2012 SC SP (1), 2012 TEB SP (1), 2012 TEB FS (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1)
  9. Brian JouBEAR
    • # of attempts, success rate: 9/16 = 56.3%
    • With +GOE: [[9]] == 2011 WC FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 TEB SP (1), 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2011 EUR FS (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2013 EUR FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[7]] == 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2012 TEB FS (1), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1)
  10. Michal Brezina
    • # of attempts, success rate: 5/20 = 25%
    • With +GOE: [[5]] == 2011 WC FS (2), 2013 EUR SP (1), 2013 EUR FS (1), 2013 WC SP (1)
    • With -GOE: [[15]] == 2011 COR FS (1),2011 GPF SP (1), 2011 GPF FS (1), 2012 EUR SP (1), 2012 EUR FS (1), 2012 WC FS (2), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 SA FS (2), 2013 EUR FS (1), 2013 WC FS (2)

*Disclaimer: Results may be a bit skewed due to the omission of B-level competitions.

I'm amazing, I know. :p (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)

I was also going to add Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Tomas Verner, and Evgeni Plushenko on this list as "honorable mentions" (the former three kept popping up in the protocols), but I got really tired.
 

Jaana

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 27, 2003
Country
Finland
No way is Evan going to get a bronze medal in Sochi unless everyone else completely melts down. 3rd place, you serious? He'd probably need to do 3 (maybe 4) quads between his 2 programs to wind up on the podium. Four years ago we saw Evan try a quad ONCE in his competitive season and the result was a 4t< fall. He doesn't have the skating skills of Chan or the performance ability of Takahashi, and they have been competing and doing quads in recent seasons. Lysacek can maybe make the lower top 10 in Sochi if he even makes the team at all. He just won't be competitive.

Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....
 

ang709

Rinkside
Joined
Dec 28, 2006
I'm amazing, I know. :p (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)

I would say you're beyond amazing! Thank you so much!
It's really interesting to me to see on this list how much higher success the men have had landing the quad these last four years compared to the previous four.
 

deedee1

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 14, 2007
Thank you so much for all your work, aftertherain! :)

[[*]Max Aaron
  • # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
  • With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
  • With -GOE: None!


  • Max for 2014 Oympic Champion, Yay! :biggrin:
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
The 100% success-rate would make Max the Plushy equivalent of this period (Plushy had 6/6 in the last period). :)

@aftertherain - Yes, indeed you are amazing. :) Thanks for your hard work! It must have taken ages...
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
CHALLENGE ACCEPTED.

....
Max Aaron
  • # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
  • With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
  • With -GOE: None!
....

I'm amazing, I know. :p (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)

Chiming in to add my thanks to the amazing aftertherain. :bow: (We'll have to come up with more challenges for you. ;).)

I'm 100% excited to watch Aaron this season -- to see his quad consistency as well as his total package of skating, which he has vowed to improve.
Gotta add that I appreciate also the respectful Aaron's sincerity when he has said that he admires Lysacek's skating, and that competing on the same ice and warming up in the same group as EL will be a thrill. :)
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Good stuff! I look forward to what happened Olympic season. The issue of last quad (lol) was the incredible penalty for ur-ing has been removed for this one.
 

aftertherain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
I was also going to add Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Tomas Verner, and Evgeni Plushenko on this list as "honorable mentions" ...

Continuing on ...

  1. Nobunari Oda - Side note: Learn to think on your feet, please. There were one too many asterisks next to some of your jump combinations.
    • # of attempts, success rate: 3/11 = 27.3%
    • With +GOE: [[2]] == 2010 GPF SP (1), 2012 SC SP (1)
    • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2010 SC FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[5]] == 2010 SA FS (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 WC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR FS (1)
  2. Takahiko Kozuka
    • # of attempts, success rate: 3/20 = 15% (I'm sorry; you're adorable, but you suck at quads.)
    • With +GOE: [[3]] == 2011 WC FS (A really good one!), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[17]] == 2010 TEB FS(1), 2010 COC FS (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 4CC FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1), 2011 SA SP (1), 2011 SA FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 COR SP (1), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 SA FS (2), 2012 GPF FS (1)
  3. Tomas Verner
    • # of attempts, success rate: 2/7 = 28.6% (He (presumably) popped a lot of intended quads, but I didn't count them.)
    • With +GOE: [[2]] == 2011 EUR FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1)
    • With -GOE: [[5]] == 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 WC FS (1), 2011 NHK SP (1), 2012 SA SP (1), 2013 EUR SP (1)
  4. Evgeni Plushenko
    • # of attempts, success rate: 1/1 = 100% (Take that, Max Aaron! Hahaha!)
    • With +GOE: 2012 EUR FS (1)
    • With -GOE: None!

Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....

After doing the analysis, I would have to agree with this. No skater has had a >70% success rate on their quads except for Max Aaron and Evgeni Plushenko (both did relatively fewer though)--but even if they do perform beautiful quads, who's to say they won't botch other elements as well? If Evan is anywhere near his 2009-2010 season, he might not need them (unless he is up against Mr. Chiddy). Patrick not be the most artistic skater in the world, but his second mark should surely beat flailing arms even if Evan goes clean. Strictly hypothetical, of course.
 

ice coverage

avatar credit: @miyan5605
Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 27, 2012
Using the top ten skaters of the most current World championships, quad attempts from 2010-2011 to present (A-level competitions, no National championships): ...

The 100% success-rate would make Max the Plushy equivalent of this period (Plushy had 6/6 in the last period). :)

Continuing on ...

Evgeni Plushenko
  • # of attempts, success rate: 1/1 = 100% (Take that, Max Aaron! Hahaha!)
  • With +GOE: 2012 EUR FS (1)
  • With -GOE: None!

Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum. :bow:
To my friend LRK :): Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]
 

Skater Boy

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Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Thank you so much for all your work, aftertherain! :)



Max for 2014 Oympic Champion, Yay! :biggrin:

I didn't realize how man quad mistakes Chan and Takhashi had hmm. But Max Aaron really is not the direction we probably want skating to go. His skating looks rough, unrefined and he doesn't have the personality or passion of Candelero who also had often scratchy jumps like Aaron. A clean Evan could possibly beat the guy and certainly a clean Tak and Chan even without quds I would have ahead with their pcs. who knows atbout this year maybe his jumps and spins and overall skating has improved but I would almost say max should be marked like Jennifer Ronbinson or sury Bonaly -lots of triples but quality si lacking.
 

aftertherain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum. :bow:
To my friend LRK :): Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]

Yup! But if I had factored in B-level/fluff competitions, neither Max nor Evgeni would have 100% anymore. I just checked. Both Evgeni and Max did have -GOE on quads in those competitions.

But since the NYT article only factored in "major" competitions, I decided to do that too. (Also because it would save some time.)
 

Li'Kitsu

Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 29, 2011
Thanks aftertherain! :) I guess Aaron had popped one of his 4S this season, but it doesn't really matter. He still has an amazing consistency with this jump, not to forget that the quality is really good too! It's exciting to see how he will do with the 4T(?) next season and his 5 quads plan :)

aftertherain said:
Takahiko Kozuka

# of attempts, success rate: 3/20 = 15% (I'm sorry; you're adorable, but you suck at quads.)

Awww, now I feel the need to defend the poor baby! :laugh: I really wouldn't have thought his sucess rate would be so low... but it's true, he already has problems rotating the quads. I can see why he's still going for the quad though, given it's high BV.
Well, at least he's still a very strong overall jumper :)
 

gmyers

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 6, 2010
Continuing on ...[/B

After doing the analysis, I would have to agree with this. No skater has had a >70% success rate on their quads except for Max Aaron and Evgeni Plushenko (both did relatively fewer though)--but even if they do perform beautiful quads, who's to say they won't botch other elements as well? If Evan is anywhere near his 2009-2010 season, he might not need them (unless he is up against Mr. Chiddy). Patrick not be the most artistic skater in the world, but his second mark should surely beat flailing arms even if Evan goes clean. Strictly hypothetical, of course.


True no one has really tested leaving out quads entirely since Verner I think in the gp part of the 2010-2011. There's also a German guy at 2013 worlds. You have to be committed and confident like Lysacek in nit doing any quads. But the issue is that there are less points avaiable on steps and goe triples.
 

aftertherain

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 15, 2010
True no one has really tested leaving out quads entirely since Verner I think in the gp part of the 2010-2011. There's also a German guy at 2013 worlds. You have to be committed and confident like Lysacek in nit doing any quads. But the issue is that there are less points avaiable on steps and goe triples.

While that may be true, you cannot ignore the fact that even when Mr. Verner plans to have quads in his programs ... he pops them ... a lot. So it's really like leaving quads out of his program! :laugh:
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum. :bow:
To my friend LRK :): Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]

Well, there's still one season left to go in this period - let's hope neither Max nor Plushy mar their perfect records!:thumbsup:
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
Yup! But if I had factored in B-level/fluff competitions, neither Max nor Evgeni would have 100% anymore. I just checked. Both Evgeni and Max did have -GOE on quads in those competitions.

But since the NYT article only factored in "major" competitions, I decided to do that too. (Also because it would save some time.)

Oh, pffft! Let's not cast shade on their success - 100% seems such a nice, tidy number. ;) (Besides, if you counted those other competitons, you'd have to do the other skaters as well, and it's possible their records would go down also, and Plushy & Max may still come up smelling of roses, with relative high success-rates. ;) Or not... But I'm a Plushy uber, and as such, intend to clutch those 100% to my bosom, and no one dare try to take it away from me! Or... or... the Yuna/Mao Wars will start to look like child's play! And I can't think of a worse threat than that... ;))
 
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