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Thread: Lysacek's road to Sochi starts to get serious

  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by silverlake22 View Post
    No way is Evan going to get a bronze medal in Sochi unless everyone else completely melts down. 3rd place, you serious? He'd probably need to do 3 (maybe 4) quads between his 2 programs to wind up on the podium. Four years ago we saw Evan try a quad ONCE in his competitive season and the result was a 4t< fall. He doesn't have the skating skills of Chan or the performance ability of Takahashi, and they have been competing and doing quads in recent seasons. Lysacek can maybe make the lower top 10 in Sochi if he even makes the team at all. He just won't be competitive.
    Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)
    I would say you're beyond amazing! Thank you so much!
    It's really interesting to me to see on this list how much higher success the men have had landing the quad these last four years compared to the previous four.

  3. #108
    Miserere Nobis
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    Thanks for your efforts, aftertherain!

    Max is just incredible.

  4. #109
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    Thank you so much for all your work, aftertherain!

    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    [[*]Max Aaron
    [LIST][*]# of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%[*]With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)[*]With -GOE: None!
    Max for 2014 Oympic Champion, Yay!

  5. #110
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    The 100% success-rate would make Max the Plushy equivalent of this period (Plushy had 6/6 in the last period).

    @aftertherain - Yes, indeed you are amazing. Thanks for your hard work! It must have taken ages...

  6. #111
    Gambatte, Max Aaron/"No letting off the gas pedal" golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    CHALLENGE ACCEPTED.

    ....
    Max Aaron
    • # of attempts, success rate: 5/5 = 100%
    • With +GOE: 2013 WC SP (1), 2013 WC FS (1), 2013 4CC SP (1), 2013 4CC FS (2)
    • With -GOE: None!
    ....

    I'm amazing, I know. (Yes, this took a really, really long time.)
    Chiming in to add my thanks to the amazing aftertherain. (We'll have to come up with more challenges for you. .)

    I'm 100% excited to watch Aaron this season -- to see his quad consistency as well as his total package of skating, which he has vowed to improve.
    Gotta add that I appreciate also the respectful Aaron's sincerity when he has said that he admires Lysacek's skating, and that competing on the same ice and warming up in the same group as EL will be a thrill.

  7. #112
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    Good stuff! I look forward to what happened Olympic season. The issue of last quad (lol) was the incredible penalty for ur-ing has been removed for this one.

  8. #113
    I'm out. aftertherain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    I was also going to add Takahiko Kozuka, Nobunari Oda, Tomas Verner, and Evgeni Plushenko on this list as "honorable mentions" ...
    Continuing on ...

    1. Nobunari Oda - Side note: Learn to think on your feet, please. There were one too many asterisks next to some of your jump combinations.
      • # of attempts, success rate: 3/11 = 27.3%
      • With +GOE: [[2]] == 2010 GPF SP (1), 2012 SC SP (1)
      • With 0 GOE: [[1]] == 2010 SC FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[5]] == 2010 SA FS (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 WC SP (1), 2012 SC FS (1), 2012 COR FS (1)
    2. Takahiko Kozuka
      • # of attempts, success rate: 3/20 = 15% (I'm sorry; you're adorable, but you suck at quads.)
      • With +GOE: [[3]] == 2011 WC FS (A really good one!), 2012 GPF SP (1), 2012 GPF FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[17]] == 2010 TEB FS(1), 2010 COC FS (1), 2010 GPF FS (1), 2011 4CC FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1), 2011 SA SP (1), 2011 SA FS (1), 2012 WC SP (1), 2012 WC FS (1), 2012 COR SP (1), 2012 COR FS (2), 2012 SA SP (1), 2012 SA FS (2), 2012 GPF FS (1)
    3. Tomas Verner
      • # of attempts, success rate: 2/7 = 28.6% (He (presumably) popped a lot of intended quads, but I didn't count them.)
      • With +GOE: [[2]] == 2011 EUR FS (1), 2011 NHK FS (1)
      • With -GOE: [[5]] == 2011 WC SP (1), 2011 WC FS (1), 2011 NHK SP (1), 2012 SA SP (1), 2013 EUR SP (1)
    4. Evgeni Plushenko
      • # of attempts, success rate: 1/1 = 100% (Take that, Max Aaron! Hahaha!)
      • With +GOE: 2012 EUR FS (1)
      • With -GOE: None!


    Quote Originally Posted by Jaana View Post
    Generally speaking regarding the quads, what skaters plan to do and what they actually might manage to do at the Olympics are two different matters.....
    After doing the analysis, I would have to agree with this. No skater has had a >70% success rate on their quads except for Max Aaron and Evgeni Plushenko (both did relatively fewer though)--but even if they do perform beautiful quads, who's to say they won't botch other elements as well? If Evan is anywhere near his 2009-2010 season, he might not need them (unless he is up against Mr. Chiddy). Patrick not be the most artistic skater in the world, but his second mark should surely beat flailing arms even if Evan goes clean. Strictly hypothetical, of course.

  9. #114
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    So who will it be for Olympoc gold, Max Aaron or Evgeny Plushenko? (Fernandez bronze).

  10. #115
    Gambatte, Max Aaron/"No letting off the gas pedal" golden411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    Using the top ten skaters of the most current World championships, quad attempts from 2010-2011 to present (A-level competitions, no National championships): ...
    Quote Originally Posted by LRK View Post
    The 100% success-rate would make Max the Plushy equivalent of this period (Plushy had 6/6 in the last period).
    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    Continuing on ...

    Evgeni Plushenko
    • # of attempts, success rate: 1/1 = 100% (Take that, Max Aaron! Hahaha!)
    • With +GOE: 2012 EUR FS (1)
    • With -GOE: None!
    Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum.
    To my friend LRK : Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by deedee1 View Post
    Thank you so much for all your work, aftertherain!



    Max for 2014 Oympic Champion, Yay!
    I didn't realize how man quad mistakes Chan and Takhashi had hmm. But Max Aaron really is not the direction we probably want skating to go. His skating looks rough, unrefined and he doesn't have the personality or passion of Candelero who also had often scratchy jumps like Aaron. A clean Evan could possibly beat the guy and certainly a clean Tak and Chan even without quds I would have ahead with their pcs. who knows atbout this year maybe his jumps and spins and overall skating has improved but I would almost say max should be marked like Jennifer Ronbinson or sury Bonaly -lots of triples but quality si lacking.

  12. #117
    I'm out. aftertherain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by golden411 View Post
    Thanks to aftertherain for the addendum.
    To my friend LRK : Note that Plushenko's tally is only 1/1, according to aftertherain's criterion of only A-level competitions. [Still 100%, LOL.]
    Yup! But if I had factored in B-level/fluff competitions, neither Max nor Evgeni would have 100% anymore. I just checked. Both Evgeni and Max did have -GOE on quads in those competitions.

    But since the NYT article only factored in "major" competitions, I decided to do that too. (Also because it would save some time.)

  13. #118
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Thanks aftertherain! I guess Aaron had popped one of his 4S this season, but it doesn't really matter. He still has an amazing consistency with this jump, not to forget that the quality is really good too! It's exciting to see how he will do with the 4T(?) next season and his 5 quads plan

    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain
    Takahiko Kozuka

    # of attempts, success rate: 3/20 = 15% (I'm sorry; you're adorable, but you suck at quads.)
    Awww, now I feel the need to defend the poor baby! I really wouldn't have thought his sucess rate would be so low... but it's true, he already has problems rotating the quads. I can see why he's still going for the quad though, given it's high BV.
    Well, at least he's still a very strong overall jumper

  14. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by aftertherain View Post
    [B]Continuing on ...[/B

    After doing the analysis, I would have to agree with this. No skater has had a >70% success rate on their quads except for Max Aaron and Evgeni Plushenko (both did relatively fewer though)--but even if they do perform beautiful quads, who's to say they won't botch other elements as well? If Evan is anywhere near his 2009-2010 season, he might not need them (unless he is up against Mr. Chiddy). Patrick not be the most artistic skater in the world, but his second mark should surely beat flailing arms even if Evan goes clean. Strictly hypothetical, of course.
    True no one has really tested leaving out quads entirely since Verner I think in the gp part of the 2010-2011. There's also a German guy at 2013 worlds. You have to be committed and confident like Lysacek in nit doing any quads. But the issue is that there are less points avaiable on steps and goe triples.

  15. #120
    I'm out. aftertherain's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    True no one has really tested leaving out quads entirely since Verner I think in the gp part of the 2010-2011. There's also a German guy at 2013 worlds. You have to be committed and confident like Lysacek in nit doing any quads. But the issue is that there are less points avaiable on steps and goe triples.
    While that may be true, you cannot ignore the fact that even when Mr. Verner plans to have quads in his programs ... he pops them ... a lot. So it's really like leaving quads out of his program!

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