I wonder what the base value advantage is between Hanyu and Chan but its pretty significant 7 points maybe? If Hanyu skates clean at the Olympics, landing a quad sal, and quad toe and two triple axels, along with levels throughout it will be one of the greatest technically performances ever (including his skating skills). I'm not so sure the judges are going to just hand Chan huge PCS to overcome that. They will give Patrick higher PCS-but 7 points? Not so sure about that one.
Hanyu has a habit of taking himself out of the picture in the short anyways.
Yes, Hanyu has about a 7 point bv advantage over Chan, but Chan also gets more +GOEs than Hanyu. I thought Hanyu usually takes himself out in the long. He skates a great SP and then falters-bombs in the long. Either way he has had a difficult time putting to good programs together in a competition. I'm rooting for the one time that he does put two clean programs together, it will be in Sochi.
I would love to see that.
Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)
Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)
So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.
About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.
So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.
Kid has been doing 4T-3A since 2011. He's now up to 4S-3A, or even an (unrecorded!! ) 4T-3A-3A-3AOriginally Posted by cheerio2
Yes, I just didn't think it was that likely to happen, so I just left it at lv 3... but with level 4 steps in both programs his overall BV would be about 8.11 points higher than Chans.Originally Posted by bekalc
Hanyu definitely has the tes advantage; Chan shoud have been doing something over the last few years and he doesn't heven max his spins. Theproblem mayb pcs where Chanused to have a huge advantage and now not. I think still if y ou use the Caorlina Kostner who has skater horribly but received huge pcs Chan deserves generallyt he same if not more over his rivals. those edges and transitions should score bigger and also they do affect goe's. life isn't fair but I hope Dai or Chan win gold; hanyu can have his moment in 2018. Chan and Dai have been skating well for a while with wonderfulprograms. Hanyu maybe peaking just at the right time though and that is lifel. I do think Chan hs the best programs; I know some donit like his more reserved artistry but it does work well Hanyu is still a bit youngish; Javier has great charisma and Dai is a diva but the question is now can Chan catch Hanyu?
I just thought of something why is it Brian Orser is helping so many int'l skaters but not his own country? Hanyu's gap seems to have closed under Orser's teaching.
The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.
Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.