Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan? | Page 11 | Golden Skate

Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

Kalina

On the Ice
Joined
Jul 30, 2012
I'm a fan of Yuzuru, and to be honest I don't think the situation has changed much in terms of who is the clear favourite going to the Olympics -- it's still Patrick, just like it was last month, and last season as well. He still has the highest likelihood of making it, the judges like him, he seems to be skating more consistently than ever, has previous Olympic experience. It's all there.
What I do think is that if Yuzuru happened to skate completely clean in both programs,
1. He would receive PCS similar to those received at GPF, if not higher (for a clean free) and
2. His TES could very well be enough to surpass the PCS difference he would have with a clean Chan.
This doesn't mean that I think Yuzuru has high chances of accomplishing this, obviously. He seems to be having a change of attitude as of late, regarding to how he approaches competition, so we'll see at Nationals what happens.
 

EricRohmer

On the Ice
Joined
May 31, 2010
Watching this all, I think again JSF is smart.
Taking the GPF in Olympic season into Japan soil.
I am sure that 17GPF too will be held in Japan like 05GPF, 09GPF, 13GPF.
 

Eddie Lee

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 19, 2007
Another reason not to call Hanyu the number 1 guy: in the FS he's only successfully done 1/6 clean quad attempts on the GP circuit/GPF this season. Both quads having problems at Skate Canada (1 touchdown, 1 fall), both quads missed at TEB (1 popped, 1 fall). One quad missed at GPF (1 fall).

He's fell in every FS this season so calling him the number 1 guy isn't accurate... I guess he's the number 1 guy if he skates totally clean (which we have yet to see in his FS) or if Chan makes errors like at the GPF. But there's no question that Chan is still the one to beat if Hanyu currently has to rely on Chan making errors and Japanese home ice to place ahead of him.

He's certainly closed the gap though, even if he hasn't skated perfectly.

How quickly one forgets 2013 World's when Chan fell how many times? AND WON!
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I've said I disagree with Chan's 2013 worlds win.

However there are similarities to Yuzuru's win at the GPF. Firstly, Yuzuru skated a perfect short and built a commanding lead (yes, Ten skated cleanly and had a big deficit behind Chan whereas Patrick made mistakes in the SP at the GPF, which is a notable difference). However in the free skate Yuzu had a fall but due to high BV (and smashing his personal best PCS even with a fall) he still got a high score (Chan doubling a triple also helped). At worlds Chan fell (and his PCS was dropped well below his PB) but his higher planned difficulty, and Ten doubling two triples, lead to Ten winning the LP by 5 points which was not enough to win overall.
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
I've said I disagree with Chan's 2013 worlds win.

How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.
 

spikydurian

Medalist
Joined
Jan 15, 2012
How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.
You must be wearing blinkers or consumed with jealousy. Patrick is where he is today because of his skating skills.
 

cheerio2

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 27, 2013
I'm getting tired of the idea of this mythical "skating skills" as the end-all be-all. In terms of fast speed, big jumps with difficult entries, interesting spins, Hanyu delivered all that. If a person has the speed and control to do big tricks like a quad out of steps or 3A with a difficult entry, that also says something about their "skating skills". The ability to do big, difficult tricks and "skating skills" are related.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.

To some extent in a few competitions, yes. But you should probably pay attention to what his competitors do, too.

2008 Skate Canada: Chan was overall the best between SP and FS (3rd and 2nd), and lost both segments, but Ponsero (who led after the SP) crumbled in the FS, and Bradley (who won silver) had a mistake in the SP and wasn't nearly the level of Patrick's artistry in general.
2008 TEB: Certainly deserved the win. Clean SP, where Kozuka missed an entire spin. Made some errors in the LP, but Kozuka fell on a UR'ed quad -- essentially the SP made the difference.
2010 Skate Canada: arguably should have lost to Oda (considering the SP), however, Oda fell in his FS and had other errors (and was probably underscored on PCS). Home ice certainly helped with the win, but he had a pretty decent FS.
2011 Japan Open: Bad competition overall, but even with 3 falls, Chan arguably deserved the win if you look at the scores and errors of his competitors. Gachinski (who had a fall) had almost the same technical level due to much weaker non-jump elements, and of course, Chan easily beat Gachinski on PCS. Kozuka/Takahashi URed jumps and fell on his quad. Buttle doubled many jumps.
2011 Skate Canada: Chan fell twice (neglected to do a 3rd combo, but not a visual error) and Fernandez fell once and doubled a 3L. Better GOE for Chan essentially gave them the same TES mark, and of course Chan's PCS was better. Chan deserved to win the FS over Fernandez by a margin that made up for Fernandez's lead in the SP. This, however, is an example of a victory where a relative new star on the scene - much like Ten at 2013 Worlds, Javier was disadvantaged by not having any previous success - Skate Canada was however the start of a breakthrough season for him technically and artistically -- had Fernandez had his 11/12 season already under his belt, he probably would have beaten Chan at this particular competition.
2011 GPF: Takahashi had a poor SP; in the FS Chan made more errors (and probably deserved to lose the LP), but his BV was still higher than Takahashi by about 5 points which made up for the errors. Maybe he didn't deserve to win by 11 points but certainly a considerable margin.
2012 Worlds: Again, Takahashi had errors in the SP (the downgrade was essentially the same cost of Chan's 2A fall) that opened a margin between Chan and him. And in the FS, Chan's 2 quads garnered enough points to make up for the 2A fall. They both had similar BV, even if Dai visibly skated cleaner.
 

David21

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 24, 2004
So yes, of course I am serious because facts support my assertions, as opposed to yours.


The only thing you've proven with your stats is that Chan is getting higher scores from the judges for his spins thah Hanyu does. Can you prove that this is not happening because of reputation judging, the fact that Chan is a three time World Champion and/or generally skates later than Hanyu in the skate order?
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Well, it works both ways -- it can't be proven that Chan is getting good GOE because of reputation judging. ;)

How are Chan's positions anything special? They're solid, but that's any reason for +GOE. The speed is alright too, but definitly nothing outstanding. Centering is good, mostly.
Hanyu sometimes has problems with centering, but it's not a general thing. His positions are more difficult than Chan, he has more variety and all of his spins have good speed, his sit spins are really fast. Chan might be a good spinner, but Hanyu is better.

He has a sideways leaning camel, excellent air position on his death drop, excellent position in his twisted sit spin, and his basic positions are very clean and well-centred and get more rotations than several of the other men. wallylutz pointed out a head to head of the GOE points each is better at, and why Chan is getting better GOE. Spins aren't all about what's going on above the knee.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
I can see Chan-ubers are upset as well as Chan himself. Sochi will be his last chance to win OGM or even a medal. When they were confident about the inevitable outcome, suddenly a real rival has appeared. Chan was spoiled by the judges who always covered his faults. He is not strong enough mentally because he never needed to skate cleanly to win. Probably it's too late to strengthen up his nerves to cope with the biggest pressure in his life. Only one mistake could be fatal.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I can see Chan-ubers are upset as well as Chan himself. Sochi will be his last chance to win OGM or even a medal. When they were confident about the inevitable outcome, suddenly a real rival has appeared. Chan was spoiled by the judges who always covered his faults. He is not strong enough mentally because he never needed to skate cleanly to win. Probably it's too late to strengthen up his nerves to cope with the biggest pressure in his life. Only one mistake could be fatal.

Nobody wants to see Chan given the OGM. I want to see him earn it. As far as strengthening up nerves, and one mistake being fatal, the same could be said for all the other men -- including Yuzu who has yet to master his 4S.

It's also ridiculous to say he's not strong enough mentally when he's given two clean freeskates this year, while most have said he's no longer capable of such. Plus, unlike Yuzu, he has experienced an Olympics. It will be Yuzu who will have to strengthen up his nerves and avoid any fatal mistake to have a shot at beating Chan. Right now, his OGM is dependent on Chan making errors, since he has yet to skate cleanly himself.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
And because all the other areas of his skating are often overscored, while at the same time other competitors' are held down.

Really, this is just the opinion of haters who keep parroting that he leaves them emotionless, cold, has no musicality etc. When he skated perfectly at TEB, they couldn't point out his mistakes and resorted to this usual drivel.

And if his other competitors are "held down" as you speak, how do you explain Yuzuru having a fall and getting a personal best PCS by 4-5 points at the GPF? While his performance was better at the GPF, going from TEB to GPF he essentially turned a popped quad into a clean quad... and somehow his overall competition score was 30 points higher (and his PCS 11 points higher in the FS). :laugh:
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
2008 Skate Canada: Chan was overall the best between SP and FS (3rd and 2nd), and lost both segments, but Ponsero (who led after the SP) crumbled in the FS, and Bradley (who won silver) had a mistake in the SP and wasn't nearly the level of Patrick's artistry in general.

Chan crumbled in LP at this competition as well and everyone else was underscored relative to him. Bradley, for all his shortcomings, delivered a clean LP with a Quad, 2 Triple Axels, and 5 other Triples. His mistake in the SP was on a Quad-Triple combination, which nobody else attempted. He deserved to win the competition. Shawn Sawyer skated a brilliant LP, the best of the event, and should have pulled up to 2nd place. He was massively underscored on PCS. Chan deserved 3rd place.

2008 TEB: Certainly deserved the win. Clean SP, where Kozuka missed an entire spin. Made some errors in the LP, but Kozuka fell on a UR'ed quad -- essentially the SP made the difference.

Kozuka skated PERFECTLY in the LP aside from the missed Quad, which was something Patrick didn't attempt to begin with. It was a phenomenal performance and should have won him the competition. His PCS were ridiculously low and should have been several points higher than Chan's. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQ_Lwu7GIJM

2010 Skate Canada: arguably should have lost to Oda.

You're damn right.

2011 Japan Open: Bad competition overall, but even with 3 falls, Chan arguably deserved the win if you look at the scores and errors of his competitors. Gachinski (who had a fall) had almost the same technical level due to much weaker non-jump elements, and of course, Chan easily beat Gachinski on PCS.

Chan had nearly a 10 point advantage in PCS with a drastically marred performance. That was uncalled for. I will say that he probably still deserved to win this one based upon the rules, but the rules are ridiculously flawed and worked in his favor. Getting that many points for falling on jumps is not how it should be.

2011 Skate Canada: Chan deserved to win the FS over Fernandez by a margin that made up for Fernandez's lead in the SP

Totally disagree. Chan was totally held up in the SP, with his 2 big mistakes. Fernandez skated perfectly with a Quad in the SP and his LP was on the same level as Chan. He should have won.

2011 GPF: Takahashi had a poor SP; in the FS Chan made more errors (and probably deserved to lose the LP). Maybe he didn't deserve to win by 11 points but certainly a considerable margin.

HANYU should have won the 2011 GPF. Completely held down because of reputation judging. Chan deserved to beat Takhashi overall, but he definitely should have lost the LP to him.

2012 Worlds: Again, Takahashi had errors in the SP (the downgrade was essentially the same cost of a 2A fall) that opened a margin between Chan and him. And in the FS, Chan's 2 quads garnered enough points to make up for the 2A fall. They both had similar BV.

Chan's SP at 2012 Worlds was just as technically flawed as Takahashi's. Takahashi had the better overall performance, though, and should have beat Patrick even in that segment of the competition.

In the LP it's no contest at all. Takahashi CLEARLY deserved to win. Chan doing a 2nd Quad instead of a second 3Axel did not at ALL make up for the base value of the mistakes later in the program. Takahashi's was nearly 6 points higher and that was with a phantom underrotation call, which also hit him with -GOE on his Flip that was NOT deserved. Patrick in general was overscored on GOE. The bigger problem here, though, was the PCS. Chan's performance was underwhelming and he got a 90. Takahashi's was inspired and he got a 85. Bullcrap.

Hanyu should have been right up there with Takahashi as well and significantly outscored Patrick in the LP.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
That you'd suggest Sawyer should have come 2nd over Chan after that disastrous SP, and that you'd suggest Takahashi's 2012 SP was as technically flawed when he downgraded a jump, is enough to tell me that you just have it out for Chan.

Hanyu wasn't held down at the GPF 2011 because of reputation judging. It's because he was an unrefined skater coming out of the junior ranks, while others had been on the senior scene longer. He had the worst PCS in the SP and 5th worst in the LP, behind other more refined skaters who made more significant errors. He maybe deserved bronze ahead of Fernandez, but suggesting he should have won overall, especially given his SP error and 3S error in the FS, is something I totally disagree with.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
He did deserve his 2008 TES win IMO. All those others, yes they were wrong results. I cant think of a top skater ever who had more wrong wins than Chan.

Wow, you actually defend his win instead of you typically dismissing it as an overscored Chan victory. You never cease to amaze me. :laugh:
 

evangeline

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Hanyu wasn't held down at the GPF 2011 because of reputation judging. It's because he was an unrefined skater coming out of the junior ranks, while others had been on the senior scene longer. He had the worst PCS in the SP and 5th worst in the LP, behind other more refined skaters who made more significant errors. He maybe deserved bronze ahead of Fernandez, but suggesting he should have won overall, especially given his SP error and 3S error in the FS, is something I totally disagree with.

2011-2012 was Hanyu's second season on the senior circuit (so he technically wasn't coming right out of the junior ranks) and his programs (especially the LP) at the GPF 2011 were skated wonderfully with speed, difficult transitions, strong choreography, and great, passionate expression. Just because others had been on the senior scene longer than he had at that point doesn't mean that they were more refined than he or deserved higher PCS. Saying he was unrefined is one thing, but justifying his results by saying "others had been on the senior scene longer" is pure reputation judging at its finest. I'd argue that Hanyu WAS held down based on reputation judging at the 2011 GPF, especially if you notice things like the fact that Fernandez outscored him on SS on the LP--Fernandez has improved on his SS since then but if you compared their blade-to-ice skills back to back at that event, it was obviously wrong.
 
Top