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Thread: Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kalina View Post
    You might enjoy this, then (sorry, slight OT I know)
    Wow, thanks for that! And he does that at an exhibition?!

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by SquishyDumpling View Post
    Yes, Hanyu has about a 7 point bv advantage over Chan, but Chan also gets more +GOEs than Hanyu. I thought Hanyu usually takes himself out in the long. He skates a great SP and then falters-bombs in the long. Either way he has had a difficult time putting to good programs together in a competition. I'm rooting for the one time that he does put two clean programs together, it will be in Sochi.
    Does Patrick really have a +GOE advantage though? Yuzuru's jumps are magnificent, if he hits the program out of the park (big if, but speaking theoretically) I'd think the GOEs would be enormous, or at least on par with Patrick's. At the GPF, if you factor out the GOE loss for the fall on the 4S, the GOEs between the two are pretty much equivalent.

  3. #168
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    SP BV:
    Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

    LP BV:
    Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

    So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

    About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

    So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2
    Wow, thanks for that! And he does that at an exhibition?!
    Kid has been doing 4T-3A since 2011. He's now up to 4S-3A, or even an (unrecorded!! ) 4T-3A-3A-3A

  4. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    SP BV:
    Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

    LP BV:
    Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

    So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

    About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

    So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.



    Kid has been doing 4T-3A since 2011. He's now up to 4S-3A, or even an (unrecorded!! ) 4T-3A-3A-3A
    Hanyu program doesn't have level four footwork, his base value would go up if he gets level four intead of level three too.

  5. #170
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bekalc
    Hanyu program doesn't have level four footwork, his base value would go up if he gets level four intead of level three too.
    Yes, I just didn't think it was that likely to happen, so I just left it at lv 3... but with level 4 steps in both programs his overall BV would be about 8.11 points higher than Chans.

  6. #171
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    Hanyu definitely has the tes advantage; Chan shoud have been doing something over the last few years and he doesn't heven max his spins. Theproblem mayb pcs where Chanused to have a huge advantage and now not. I think still if y ou use the Caorlina Kostner who has skater horribly but received huge pcs Chan deserves generallyt he same if not more over his rivals. those edges and transitions should score bigger and also they do affect goe's. life isn't fair but I hope Dai or Chan win gold; hanyu can have his moment in 2018. Chan and Dai have been skating well for a while with wonderfulprograms. Hanyu maybe peaking just at the right time though and that is lifel. I do think Chan hs the best programs; I know some donit like his more reserved artistry but it does work well Hanyu is still a bit youngish; Javier has great charisma and Dai is a diva but the question is now can Chan catch Hanyu?

  7. #172
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    I just thought of something why is it Brian Orser is helping so many int'l skaters but not his own country? Hanyu's gap seems to have closed under Orser's teaching.

  8. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skater Boy View Post
    I just thought of something why is it Brian Orser is helping so many int'l skaters but not his own country? Hanyu's gap seems to have closed under Orser's teaching.
    Cynthia Phaneuf was training with Orser before she retired.
    Has Orser turned away any Canadians? (I can't imagine why he would.)
    Or is the question why few Canadians have come knocking at his door?

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    Yes, I just didn't think it was that likely to happen, so I just left it at lv 3... but with level 4 steps in both programs his overall BV would be about 8.11 points higher than Chans.
    Hanyu usually gets level 4 for his SP footwork. Reportedly they had tuned up the footwork in his FP. He didn't get level 4 at GPF but it could be a matter of time.

  10. #175
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    The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.

    Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by SquishyDumpling View Post
    Chan didn't skate his best in the SP at GPF though. At TEB, Chan won the clean SP battle against Hanyu - beating him by 3.5pts in PCS. Skeptic that I am, I wonder if the PCS Hanyu got at the GPF in Japan will be similar outside of Japan with the same performances he gave.
    Only in Japan would Hanyu get 92.5 points of PCS with a fall. He would probably get something more like 88 points (considering he got 81 PCS at TEB and the primary technical difference between TEB and GPF was a popped quad). Even 7 extra points of PCS for a clean quad instead of a popped quad is rather generous.

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.

    Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.
    Sochi isn't just any resort area, it has a sub-tropical climate that is relatively humid. Humid air can be problematic for people with asthma. This is a very unusual location for Winter Olympics, if people thought Vancouver was warm by Winter Games standard, wait till they see Sochi.

  13. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    SP BV:
    Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

    LP BV:
    Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

    So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

    About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

    So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.
    The 6.35 advantage in BV is on paper only. In terms of GOE, Chan has better GOE in spins and steps, especially the latter. Hanyu isn't particularly impressive in terms of his spins or steps. Also, you need to account for probability of success. Thus far, Hanyu has yet landed a 4S in competition. It is possible that he will but the probability is not high. On the other hand, Chan has rarely missed his two Quad Toes in the FS. Someone suggested that Chan could replace his 2A with a 4S or 4F that he has been practicing such that even if he fell, he would still end up getting higher marks. I can tell you that it won't happen however. It was an interesting idea to toy with but attempt to game the system like that is just not Patrick.

    I will post the notes and marks taken at GPF shortly. Hanyu won the GPF, no doubt about it. However, that FS score of his repeating, don't count on it.

  14. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Only in Japan would Hanyu get 92.5 points of PCS with a fall. He would probably get something more like 88 points (considering he got 81 PCS at TEB and the primary technical difference between TEB and GPF was a popped quad). Even 7 extra points of PCS for a clean quad instead of a popped quad is rather generous.
    As always, the PCS range varies between competitions and I think you need to take into account that the PCS scores at this event were overall quite generous. Yes, Yuzuru was scored rather high, but I felt a lot of the field was as well. Patrick received top notch PCS comparable to his TEB FS for a tight performance, and even Kovtun got 81 PCS.

  15. #180
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    That guy Chan's spins are nothing to write home about, so if he's getting high GOE on them, he shouldn't be. Also, I'm confused. I didn't see Chan doing a 4S at GPF, so unless Chan is planning on doing one at Sochi, why should Hanyu? The idea that one person has to do a 4S and 4T plus two 3As to have a chance against someone with two 4Ts and one 3A (that are of worse quality) is the kind of thing that makes some people not consider figure skating a real sport.

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