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Thread: Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The fact that Hanyu beat Chan at the GPF may help Hanyu in the PCS/GOE department. Like it or not, reputation does play a role in how the judges perceive skaters.

    Another aspect favorable to Hanyu: Sochi is a resort area, a cleaner environment for an athlete with asthma.
    Sochi isn't just any resort area, it has a sub-tropical climate that is relatively humid. Humid air can be problematic for people with asthma. This is a very unusual location for Winter Olympics, if people thought Vancouver was warm by Winter Games standard, wait till they see Sochi.

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    SP BV:
    Chan: 43.10; Hanyu: 43.76 (44.36 if he gets Lv4 on spins and steps)

    LP BV:
    Chan: 83.67 (assuming all his spins are lv 4); Hanyu: 90.02 (adding a Lv4 CCoSp instead of the Lv 1 from GPF)

    So Hanyu has a 6.35 points advantage in the LP, around 7 points overall.

    About the +GOE, I don't think Chan gets better GOE. It seems they're pretty similar on GOE (and sometimes Chan is getting similar or better GOE than Hanyu on the 3A, which makes me want to pull my hair out, but oh well...). Assuming Hanyu would be completly clean though, I think he'd get slightly higher GOE.

    So it's really a thing of Hanyus BV vs. Chans PCS.
    The 6.35 advantage in BV is on paper only. In terms of GOE, Chan has better GOE in spins and steps, especially the latter. Hanyu isn't particularly impressive in terms of his spins or steps. Also, you need to account for probability of success. Thus far, Hanyu has yet landed a 4S in competition. It is possible that he will but the probability is not high. On the other hand, Chan has rarely missed his two Quad Toes in the FS. Someone suggested that Chan could replace his 2A with a 4S or 4F that he has been practicing such that even if he fell, he would still end up getting higher marks. I can tell you that it won't happen however. It was an interesting idea to toy with but attempt to game the system like that is just not Patrick.

    I will post the notes and marks taken at GPF shortly. Hanyu won the GPF, no doubt about it. However, that FS score of his repeating, don't count on it.

  3. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Only in Japan would Hanyu get 92.5 points of PCS with a fall. He would probably get something more like 88 points (considering he got 81 PCS at TEB and the primary technical difference between TEB and GPF was a popped quad). Even 7 extra points of PCS for a clean quad instead of a popped quad is rather generous.
    As always, the PCS range varies between competitions and I think you need to take into account that the PCS scores at this event were overall quite generous. Yes, Yuzuru was scored rather high, but I felt a lot of the field was as well. Patrick received top notch PCS comparable to his TEB FS for a tight performance, and even Kovtun got 81 PCS.

  4. #169
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    That guy Chan's spins are nothing to write home about, so if he's getting high GOE on them, he shouldn't be. Also, I'm confused. I didn't see Chan doing a 4S at GPF, so unless Chan is planning on doing one at Sochi, why should Hanyu? The idea that one person has to do a 4S and 4T plus two 3As to have a chance against someone with two 4Ts and one 3A (that are of worse quality) is the kind of thing that makes some people not consider figure skating a real sport.

  5. #170
    Custom Title Mathman's Avatar
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    Hanyu was great at the Grand Prix Final, but I still think Chan is the front runner. For whatever reason, Chan had no zip last week. But IMHO Chan's effort at TEB remains the best men's performance of the season. Both Chan and Hanyu will have to come loaded for bear in Sochi. We'll see.

  6. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2 View Post
    That guy Chan's spins are nothing to write home about, so if he's getting high GOE on them, he shouldn't be. Also, I'm confused. I didn't see Chan doing a 4S at GPF, so unless Chan is planning on doing one at Sochi, why should Hanyu? The idea that one person has to do a 4S and 4T plus two 3As to have a chance against someone with two 4Ts and one 3A (that are of worse quality) is the kind of thing that makes some people not consider figure skating a real sport.
    Yes, but as we know, skating is not all about the jumps. Otherwise, why did Goebel's 3 quads lose to Yagudin and Plushenko in 2002?

    I agree that the PCS gap really benefits top favourites. Certainly Yuzuru is a favourite to win Sochi (for a while he was my pick, although I think Chan's gotten himself together, but Yuzuru's 4S is a huge question mark).

    As far as quality goes, Patrick has excellent quality on his quads... I think due to his inconsistency with his 3A people assume the quality is bad, but when he lands it as good as he can, it's powerful. Yuzu certainly does his with more ease though. Spins wise, Chan has textbook basic positions and cross-foot too (the GPF crossfoot was quite out of the norm for him) -- not really many original/interesting positions, but not many of the men (other than Brown and Yuzu, really) have those. He also has an excellent death drop sit spin with huge height and extension, IMO. Both him and Yuzu have the best spins, IMO (with edge maybe going to Hanyu for his variety)... although ironically, they both occasionally have silly mistakes with them.

  7. #172
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    I agree that jumps aren't everything. They do count for a lot though (see Tara vs Michelle!) I don't recall the exact comp you're referring to with Goebel, but Yagudin and Plushenko also had excellent jumps and usually were technically superior to the field when they won. At GPF, Chan's jumps looked solid for the most part but were smaller relative to Hanyu's. He did not have the difficult entrances that Hanyu had. In terms of artistry, I thought they were both similarly good. Chan certainly seemed like a very good skater, but I just didn't see any area where Chan was SO superior to the field that he should be allowed to do one less 3A and no 4S.

  8. #173
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    ^^^Patrick does not seemed like a very good skater? He is the currently the best. Hanyu's skating skills is still below Patrick's and Daisuke's. He may have speed but he does not have the complex transitions.

    His jumps are just a good as Hanyu's and no means small as you propagated. Hanyu just had a 3A extra to raise his BV.

  9. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2 View Post
    I agree that jumps aren't everything. They do count for a lot though (see Tara vs Michelle!) I don't recall the exact comp you're referring to with Goebel, but Yagudin and Plushenko also had excellent jumps and usually were technically superior to the field when they won. At GPF, Chan's jumps looked solid for the most part but were smaller relative to Hanyu's. He did not have the difficult entrances that Hanyu had. In terms of artistry, I thought they were both similarly good. Chan certainly seemed like a very good skater, but I just didn't see any area where Chan was SO superior to the field that he should be allowed to do one less 3A and no 4S.
    Chan has more refinement and maturity to his skating than Hanyu has yet to develop (though as he matures I believe he will). As the EuroSport guys said at TEB, Hanyu's was the skate of a boy whereas Chan's was the skate of a man. That's not to insult; it's just a different aesthetic ... like Tara being a girl and Michelle a woman. But if the technically more ambitious skater outskates a more mature skater they can certainly win as we saw in Nagano.

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    CanadianSkaterGuy, you are overreacting too much.
    Even I think "perfect" Chan will beat perfect Hanyu. Many people (ISU/member federations except the Canadian) are not happy with the situation that the OGM is readily picked up by Chan, even with faulty performances. They ha learned the lessons from the farce of London worlds. Hanyu is expected to be a rivals to make the game more interesting and force Chan to skate with more seriousness. If Hanyu lands all jumps, Chan can't afford any major errors, anything bigger than one stepping out or a double salchow.

  11. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerio2 View Post
    I don't recall the exact comp you're referring to with Goebel, but Yagudin and Plushenko also had excellent jumps and usually were technically superior to the field when they won.
    The 2002 Olympics. In the long program Tim Goebel did 3 quads, including a quad Sal in the second half, and two triple Axels.

    Plushenko did everything he could to make up for a fall in the short: 4T+3T+3Lo, 4T, and 3A+half-loop+3F.

    Yagudin did two quads but only one of his two planned triple Axels. Scott Hamilton. commenting on television, said that Yagudin was conceding the LP.

    Yagudin got first place ordinals from every judge and collected four 6.0s in presentation to win the gold.
    Last edited by Mathman; 12-09-2013 at 10:28 PM.

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    CanadianSkaterGuy, you are overreacting too much.
    Even I think "perfect" Chan will beat perfect Hanyu. Many people (ISU/member federations except the Canadian) are not happy with the situation that the OGM is readily picked up by Chan, even with faulty performances. They ha learned the lessons from the farce of London worlds. Hanyu is expected to be a rivals to make the game more interesting and force Chan to skate with more seriousness. If Hanyu lands all jumps, Chan can't afford any major errors, anything bigger than one stepping out or a double salchow.
    Did you see his scores at TEB? I don't think ISU members are that unhappy with Chan. I actually think Hanyu will quite possibly beat Chan if he goes clean in both programs (due to the technical advantage with his LP layout/BV). I'm just not sure Hanyu has it in him to do both quads and axels. He still has LP inconsistencies and his 4S has failed him thus far.

  13. #178
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    Hanyu is now a legitimate threat. So yes to the OP's question.

  14. #179
    Forever stuck on those steps Li'Kitsu's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz
    In terms of GOE, Chan has better GOE in spins and steps, especially the latter. Hanyu isn't particularly impressive in terms of his spins or steps.
    And to know you are serious about that...
    Hanyu is a better spinner than Chan, quite often Chan gets higher GOE on his spins than he should. They're really close in GOE, like it or not.

  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    And to know you are serious about that...
    Hanyu is a better spinner than Chan, quite often Chan gets higher GOE on his spins than he should. They're really close in GOE, like it or not.
    I'd say Hanyu has better variety to his positions, but Chan has more solid, clean positions and centering. They're both good spinners for various reasons.

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