A lot depends on whether Hanyu's PCS were a one time thing at a domestic event or he is now a member of the Chan/Takahashi/Fernandez club of PCS scores.
Chan cant even afford to fall once as Yuzuru is on his back
just as predicted, Yuzuru is the No.1 man leading for Sochi
and just realized he is currently ranked No.1 on the World Standings now too
As for artistry, that's a matter of opinion. And if some people are saying Yagudin = Chan and Goebel = Hanyu in terms of artistry, I could just as easily say that Goebel = Chan and Hanyu = Yagudin. Which is why technical content should be foremost. And since Hanyu has the better jumps and spins than Chan, there's no reason why Chan should be allowed to do one less 3A, no 4S, and not have difficult entrances.
NOT fair to compare Hanyu to Goebel. Tim Goebel skated without flair--he was wooden, with little or no musicality. With Tim, all his focus was on the jumps.
Hanyu is exactly the opposite and in some respects Chan is more like Goebel than like Yagudin. Not that Chan is unmusical or wooden, just that he is not as expressive as Hanyu. Chan is a blade technician and his focus is on that rather than connecting with the audience. Like Yagudin, Hanyu's focus is the performance for the crowd.
How are Chan's positions anything special? They're solid, but that's any reason for +GOE. The speed is alright too, but definitly nothing outstanding. Centering is good, mostly.Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy
Hanyu sometimes has problems with centering, but it's not a general thing. His positions are more difficult than Chan, he has more variety and all of his spins have good speed, his sit spins are really fast. Chan might be a good spinner, but Hanyu is better.
Spins GOE Comparison (eliminating any spins that had obvious downgrades or GOE errors for both skaters)
Skate Canada Int'l 2013
FCSp4 : 0.57 FCCoSp4 : 0.57
CSSp4 : 0.43 FCSSp4 : 0.93
CCoSp4 : 0.57 CCoSp4 : 0.86
CCSp3 : 0.71 FSSp4 : 1.07
FSSp4 : 0.93 CCSp4 : 0.79
CCoSp4 : 0.93
Hanyu' SP Average : 0.523 or +1.05
Chan's SP Average : 0.857 or +1.71
Hanyu's FS Average : 0.787 or +1.57
Chan's FS Average : 0.93 or +1.86
FCSp4 : 0.86 FCCoSp4 : 0.57
CSSp4 : 0.71 FCSSp4 : 0.93
CCoSp4 : 0.71 CCoSp4 : 0.79
CCSp3 : 0.64 FSSp4 : 1.00
FSSp4 : 1.07 CCSp4 : 0.86
CCoSp4 : 1.00 CCoSp3 : 0.79
Hanyu' SP Average : 0.76 or +1.52
Chan's SP Average : 0.90 or +1.80
Hanyu's FS Average : 0.763 or +1.53
Chan's FS Average : 0.883 or +1.77
FCSp4 : 1.00 FCCoSp4 : 1.00
CSSp4 : 0.93 FCSSp4 : 1.00
CCSp3 : 1.07 FSSp4 : 1.14
FSSp4 : 1.00 CCSp4 : 1.00
CCoSp4 : 0.86
Hanyu' SP Average : 0.965 or +1.93
Chan's SP Average : 0.977 or +1.95
Hanyu's FS Average : 1.00 or +2.00
Chan's FS Average : 1.07 or +2.14
Each skater has two of their spins removed from the 3 competitions combined due to obvious errors and/or downgrades to Lv1 such that they have equal number of data points, leaving only spins that do not have obvious errors, therefore more reflective of what they are capable of assuming no error.
Combined SP Average for Spins' GOE
Hanyu : 0.7225 (8 data points) or + 1.45
Chan : 0.9122 (9 data points) or + 1.82
Combined FS Average for Spins' GOE
Hanyu : 0.8313 (8 data points) or + 1.66
Chan : 1.0929 (7 data points) or + 2.19
Based on these data and facts, over 16 data points each this season, Chan has clearly outscored Hanyu in the GOE of Spins with one competition in each's respective home country and one in a 3rd country. Given that Spins have the least amount of GOE per element vs. Lv 4 Steps and most Triple and Quad jumps, looking at the raw GOE contribution on its own may not give us a full picture so I also translate into GOE Gradient to illustrate the differential, allowing a more direct comparison to other non-spin elements. In terms of GOE Gradient, Hanyu's Spins (16 data points), except those that had errors or downgrades to Lv1, averaged a GOE Gradient of +1.555. On the other hand, Chan's, also with 16 data points, had an average GOE Gradient of +1.982 - or about half of a point higher on average per spin element, not a subtle difference. Given that each competition, that is SP + FS have a total of 6 Spin elements, this GOE Gradient differential translate into an average difference of (1.982 - 1.555 ) X 0.50 X 6 = 1.28 On its own, 1.28 doesn't seem like a big deal in a competition, however, you combined it with the obvious GOE differential coming out of Step Sequences, suddenly, you are cutting that theoretical BV advantage of Hanyu's by about half, ignoring the GOE of jumps for now. Now, consider Hanyu has never actually landed a 4S this season, all of sudden that theoretical 6.3 advantage in BV smells like a pie in the sky. This is precisely why Chan will not and should not change his program by adding another Quad in lieu of the 2A - they should let Hanyu keep tumbling on that 4S and Chan should focus on skating a clean program - not missing the 3T at the end of the 4T, or messing up the final spin. Even in Japan, Chan still outscored Hanyu's GOE in spins - in fact, Hanyu botched 2 spins while in Japan but I courteously discounted those as one-off accidents that are not likely to repeat.
The bottom line is you are free to continue to believe that 1+1 = 3 or that Chan received unfairly high GOE in spins vs. Hanyu. It's difficult to understand however why there is such a strong consensus that among the 27 judges who saw them this season so far that the average of every segment, overall competition and all 3 competitions combined all pointed to Chan having a clear edge in the GOE of spins, even while in Japan. If we were to normalize the GOE Gradient of Spins as though they were jumps based on the GOE Gradient given, the difference would have been closer to 2 points of difference in the overall score. That's not a subtle difference by any definition knowing that this came from only 6 elements out of 20.
So yes, of course I am serious because facts support my assertions, as opposed to yours.
1) good speed or acceleration during spin (Edge to Chan)
2) ability to center a spin quickly (Edge to Chan)
3) balanced rotations in all positions (Edge to Chan, he is more controlled overall)
4) clearly more than required number of revolutions (It depends, varies from competition to competition)
5) good position(s) (including height and air position in flying spins) (Edge to Chan)
6) creativity and originality (Edge to Hanyu)
7) good control throughout all phases (Edge to Chan)
8) element matched to the musical structure (It depends)
Chan leads about 5 to 1 in the various criteria, or about a net of 4 criteria. Empirically, with the exception of GPF, Chan's GOE in spins were also reflective of these differences.
^ all that this proofs is a very bad case of reputation judging. I didn't even think Chan's GOE for his spins were that ridiculous.
And I guess it's needless to say I'm not agreeing with your assertions of all the single bullets (Chan having the better positions... no comment). Chans spins are average, but certainly nothing that merits +2's or even +3's overall. This judging is a mess.
If GOE is objective, then PCS must be objective as well, it's the same judges after all right? So this means that I can start believing that Yuzuru's skating skills ARE actually better than Kozuka's. Right.
Or that Yuzuru's 3A-2T in the free is actually not so special after all, since Skate Canada's judges seemed to think it warranted a meager +0.57 GOE. No matter that commentators have been raving about it and fellow skater Jeremy Ten went so far as to describe it as 'godly'.