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Thread: Can Yuzuru Hanyu close the gap on Patrick Chan?

  1. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by skateluvr View Post
    He has shown he can win when skating near his best, and if Chan makes errors. It was nice to see Hanyu do that well. And I hope it makes pat realize that he may not have it in the bag at Olympics. But Olys are in Russia, not Japan. Kovtun or Plushenko may surprise-I am glad to see the mens comp. is not a done deal. I do not think the Oly judges would pull a victory for Chan against a Japanese who skates lights out. Denis Ten is from ? where? ( I know where-no fed is my point). But Patrick can be outskated on any given night by a few Japanese men, Kovtun, Javi. If the judging is fair, Patrick may earn silver or bronze. I don't think he'll finish lower than bronze even if he Zambonis the ice and others skate 5 quads. But he was beaten at the GP final. Olympics will be judged harshly, aand he must really earn it with his jumps, not just skating skills PCS.

    I hope for steady nerves, as we could see the best mens event ever.
    I think it could indeed be the best event ever, with many men attempting at least 2 quads and some with 3 quads. Hanyu really has the potential to have the most technically demanding Olympic FS ever, but that 4S has so far failed him this whole season (other than the one he managed to squeak out at Finlandia). Hopefully the GPF win improves his confidence, but that clean skate is something Hanyu still has yet to attain. Chan's camp really should continue to do what they've been doing, maintain a clean competition, with the likelihood of Hanyu making an error in one of his opening quads. If Hanyu goes clean in Sochi, I would imagine he scores above a clean Chan overall due to the technical advantage, but I would hope that if Hanyu falls (or Chan or whoever), they are placed behind a cleaner skater. It's been a while since an Olympic champion hasn't gone clean, although the difficulty has certainly progressed to unprecedented levels.

  2. #212
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    I'm a fan of Yuzuru, and to be honest I don't think the situation has changed much in terms of who is the clear favourite going to the Olympics -- it's still Patrick, just like it was last month, and last season as well. He still has the highest likelihood of making it, the judges like him, he seems to be skating more consistently than ever, has previous Olympic experience. It's all there.
    What I do think is that if Yuzuru happened to skate completely clean in both programs,
    1. He would receive PCS similar to those received at GPF, if not higher (for a clean free) and
    2. His TES could very well be enough to surpass the PCS difference he would have with a clean Chan.
    This doesn't mean that I think Yuzuru has high chances of accomplishing this, obviously. He seems to be having a change of attitude as of late, regarding to how he approaches competition, so we'll see at Nationals what happens.

  3. #213
    Custom Title EricRohmer's Avatar
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    Watching this all, I think again JSF is smart.
    Taking the GPF in Olympic season into Japan soil.
    I am sure that 17GPF too will be held in Japan like 05GPF, 09GPF, 13GPF.

  4. #214
    Custom Title spikydurian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NMURA View Post
    Kozuka is the #5 man of Japan. He is clearly inferior to Hanyu.
    Kozuka is NOT inferior to Hanyu. He just didn't have the consistent big jumps (quads) much like Daisuke.

  5. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikydurian View Post
    Kozuka is NOT inferior to Hanyu. He just didn't have the consistent big jumps (quads) much like Daisuke.
    Overall I disagree but Kozuka's actually skating itself is undeniably more refined than Hanyu.

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Another reason not to call Hanyu the number 1 guy: in the FS he's only successfully done 1/6 clean quad attempts on the GP circuit/GPF this season. Both quads having problems at Skate Canada (1 touchdown, 1 fall), both quads missed at TEB (1 popped, 1 fall). One quad missed at GPF (1 fall).

    He's fell in every FS this season so calling him the number 1 guy isn't accurate... I guess he's the number 1 guy if he skates totally clean (which we have yet to see in his FS) or if Chan makes errors like at the GPF. But there's no question that Chan is still the one to beat if Hanyu currently has to rely on Chan making errors and Japanese home ice to place ahead of him.

    He's certainly closed the gap though, even if he hasn't skated perfectly.
    How quickly one forgets 2013 World's when Chan fell how many times? AND WON!

  7. #217
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    I've said I disagree with Chan's 2013 worlds win.

    However there are similarities to Yuzuru's win at the GPF. Firstly, Yuzuru skated a perfect short and built a commanding lead (yes, Ten skated cleanly and had a big deficit behind Chan whereas Patrick made mistakes in the SP at the GPF, which is a notable difference). However in the free skate Yuzu had a fall but due to high BV (and smashing his personal best PCS even with a fall) he still got a high score (Chan doubling a triple also helped). At worlds Chan fell (and his PCS was dropped well below his PB) but his higher planned difficulty, and Ten doubling two triples, lead to Ten winning the LP by 5 points which was not enough to win overall.

  8. #218
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I've said I disagree with Chan's 2013 worlds win.
    How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.

  9. #219
    Custom Title spikydurian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.
    You must be wearing blinkers or consumed with jealousy. Patrick is where he is today because of his skating skills.

  10. #220
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by spikydurian View Post
    Patrick is where he is today because of his skating skills.
    And because all the other areas of his skating are often overscored, while at the same time other competitors' are held down.

  11. #221
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    I'm getting tired of the idea of this mythical "skating skills" as the end-all be-all. In terms of fast speed, big jumps with difficult entries, interesting spins, Hanyu delivered all that. If a person has the speed and control to do big tricks like a quad out of steps or 3A with a difficult entry, that also says something about their "skating skills". The ability to do big, difficult tricks and "skating skills" are related.

  12. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    How about his 2008 Skate Canada win, 2008 TEB win, 2010 Skate Canada win, 2011 Japan Open win, 2011 Skate Canada win, 2011 GPF win, and 2012 Worlds win? The guy has been propped up as much as an infant.
    To some extent in a few competitions, yes. But you should probably pay attention to what his competitors do, too.

    2008 Skate Canada: Chan was overall the best between SP and FS (3rd and 2nd), and lost both segments, but Ponsero (who led after the SP) crumbled in the FS, and Bradley (who won silver) had a mistake in the SP and wasn't nearly the level of Patrick's artistry in general.
    2008 TEB: Certainly deserved the win. Clean SP, where Kozuka missed an entire spin. Made some errors in the LP, but Kozuka fell on a UR'ed quad -- essentially the SP made the difference.
    2010 Skate Canada: arguably should have lost to Oda (considering the SP), however, Oda fell in his FS and had other errors (and was probably underscored on PCS). Home ice certainly helped with the win, but he had a pretty decent FS.
    2011 Japan Open: Bad competition overall, but even with 3 falls, Chan arguably deserved the win if you look at the scores and errors of his competitors. Gachinski (who had a fall) had almost the same technical level due to much weaker non-jump elements, and of course, Chan easily beat Gachinski on PCS. Kozuka/Takahashi URed jumps and fell on his quad. Buttle doubled many jumps.
    2011 Skate Canada: Chan fell twice (neglected to do a 3rd combo, but not a visual error) and Fernandez fell once and doubled a 3L. Better GOE for Chan essentially gave them the same TES mark, and of course Chan's PCS was better. Chan deserved to win the FS over Fernandez by a margin that made up for Fernandez's lead in the SP. This, however, is an example of a victory where a relative new star on the scene - much like Ten at 2013 Worlds, Javier was disadvantaged by not having any previous success - Skate Canada was however the start of a breakthrough season for him technically and artistically -- had Fernandez had his 11/12 season already under his belt, he probably would have beaten Chan at this particular competition.
    2011 GPF: Takahashi had a poor SP; in the FS Chan made more errors (and probably deserved to lose the LP), but his BV was still higher than Takahashi by about 5 points which made up for the errors. Maybe he didn't deserve to win by 11 points but certainly a considerable margin.
    2012 Worlds: Again, Takahashi had errors in the SP (the downgrade was essentially the same cost of Chan's 2A fall) that opened a margin between Chan and him. And in the FS, Chan's 2 quads garnered enough points to make up for the 2A fall. They both had similar BV, even if Dai visibly skated cleaner.

  13. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    So yes, of course I am serious because facts support my assertions, as opposed to yours.

    The only thing you've proven with your stats is that Chan is getting higher scores from the judges for his spins thah Hanyu does. Can you prove that this is not happening because of reputation judging, the fact that Chan is a three time World Champion and/or generally skates later than Hanyu in the skate order?

  14. #224
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    Well, it works both ways -- it can't be proven that Chan is getting good GOE because of reputation judging.

    Quote Originally Posted by Li'Kitsu View Post
    How are Chan's positions anything special? They're solid, but that's any reason for +GOE. The speed is alright too, but definitly nothing outstanding. Centering is good, mostly.
    Hanyu sometimes has problems with centering, but it's not a general thing. His positions are more difficult than Chan, he has more variety and all of his spins have good speed, his sit spins are really fast. Chan might be a good spinner, but Hanyu is better.
    He has a sideways leaning camel, excellent air position on his death drop, excellent position in his twisted sit spin, and his basic positions are very clean and well-centred and get more rotations than several of the other men. wallylutz pointed out a head to head of the GOE points each is better at, and why Chan is getting better GOE. Spins aren't all about what's going on above the knee.

  15. #225
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    I can see Chan-ubers are upset as well as Chan himself. Sochi will be his last chance to win OGM or even a medal. When they were confident about the inevitable outcome, suddenly a real rival has appeared. Chan was spoiled by the judges who always covered his faults. He is not strong enough mentally because he never needed to skate cleanly to win. Probably it's too late to strengthen up his nerves to cope with the biggest pressure in his life. Only one mistake could be fatal.

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