Australia for the team event! You're Joking Right!....right??...right?????
With Nebelhorn behind us we now know which nations are eligible to participate in the team event.
Canada, China, Italy, Russia and the United are automatically qualified so I won't be using these countries in my analysis.
Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, Australia and Ukraine also have the capability to participate.
For my analysis, I'll remove France, Germany and Japan as they will most definitely have enough points to make the team event.
This leaves four countries and only two spots.
In order to qualify for this event, nations have to earn qualification points. The 10 nations with the highest amount of qualification points will qualify for the team event. Here are a few pointers about qualification points.
1. Qualification points can only be earned at the following competitions (2013 European/Four Continents, 2013 Junior Worlds, 2013 Worlds, 2013-14 Junior Grand Prix Circuit (Not the Junior Grand Prix Final) and 2013-14 Senior Grand Prix (Including the final).
2. How the points are added is quite complicated. Points are accumulated from two categories: 2013 Championships and 2013-14 Grand Prix.
Catagory 1: 2013 Championships.
If a skater/couple earns qualification points at 2013 Worlds, whatever qualification points the skater/couple earn have to count. If the skater/couple did not receive qualification points at 2013 worlds BUT received qualification points at 2013 Europeans/2013 Four Continents and earned points, those points will count. If again the skater/couple did not earn qualification points at either 2013 Worlds OR 2013 Four Continents/2013 Europeans BUT participated and earned qualification points at 2013 Junior Worlds, those points will count. If the skater/couple did not participate or received qualification points from any of these events, they won’t earn points in this category.
Catagory 2: 2013-14 Grand Prix
If a skater/couple earns points at a Senior Grand Prix (including the final), whatever qualification points the skater/couple earn have to count. If the skater/couple do not receive any qualification points a Senior Grand Prix (including the final) BUT received qualification points at a 2013-14 Junior Grand Prix, they can use that. If they did not receive any qualification points from either event they cannot earn pointsfor this category.
3. Qualification points must be earned by the skater/couple who are participating in Sochi BUT may receive help from ONE other skater/couple for each of the two catagories (2013 Championships and 2013-14 Grand Prix).
Here is a list of skaters/couples who I predict will represent each of the following nations and which skater/couple will help them earn points. This list also shows how many qualification points they contribute
Jenna Mccorkell- 20th Place at 2013 Worlds- 162pts. (She has not Grand Prix assignments and she has no other help).
Stacy Kemp/David King- 15th Place at 2013 Worlds- 275pts. (They will only get help from the 2013-14 Grand Prix category- Molly Leneghan and Jake Astill finished 9th at a JGP- earned 108pts.)
Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland- 13th Place at 2013 Worlds- 339pts. (They will only get help from the 2013-14 Grand Prix category- Olivia Smart and Joseph Buckland finished 7th at a JGP- earned 133pts.)
*Smart/Buckland still have another JGP assignment left, so points can be readjusted.
*Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland are competing at Trophee Eric Bompard. I predict they will finish no higher than 6th at that event (236pts.)
Victor Romanenkov- 22nd Place at 2013 Worlds- 131pts. (He has no Grand Prix assignments and he has no other help).
Elena Glebova- 16th Place at Worlds- 247pts. (She has no Grand Prix Assignments and she has no other help).
Natalja Zabijako/Alexandr Zaboev- NOTHING and no help
There is still JGP Estonia still to come but looking at the entries, I doubt that any of the Estonian skaters will earn additional qualification points.
Total= 378 points
Yakov Godorozha- 23rd Place at 2013 Worlds- 118pts. (Ivan Pavlov finished 20th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 68pts and finished 8th at a JGP- earned 120pts.)
Natalia Popova- 15th Place at 2013 Worlds- 275pts. (Anna Khnychenkova finished 17th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 93pts.)
Elizaveta Usmantseva/Roman Talan- New pair- 0pts (Julia Lavrentieva/Yuri Rudyk finished 11th at 2013 Europeans- 293pts)
Siobhan Heekin-Caneedy/Dmitri Dun- 14th at 2013 Worlds- 305pts. (Alexandra Nazarova/Maxim Nikitin finished 11th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 174pts. and 2nd at a JGP- 225pts)
Total= 1671 pts.
*Ivan Pavlov and Nazarova/Nikitin still have another JGP assignment left, so points can be readjusted.
*Siobhan Heekin-Caneedy/Dmitri Dun will also be competing at 2013 Cup of Russia. I predict that they will finish no higher than 7th at that event (213pts.)
Brendan Kerry- 21st at 2013 Four Continents- 61pts & 5th at a JGP 164pts (David Kranjec finished 23rd at 2013 Four Continents 83pts).
*Brendan Kerry and David Kranjec still have an additional JGP assignment to complete. I predict that David can receicve points.
Brooklee Han- 21st at 2013 Worlds- 162 points & 8th at a JGP- 120pts. (Chantelle Kerry finished 14th at 2013 Four Continents-214pts and 8th at a JGP- 120pts)
*Brooklee and Chantelle still have an additional JGP assignment to complete.
Danielle O’brien/Gregory Merriman- 8th at 2013 Four Continents 402pts (No other help)
So to date (September 30th) the current standings are
1. Ukraine 1671pts
2. AUSTRALIA 1326pts
3. Great Britain 1017pts
4. Estonia 378pts
It is very well possible that Australia can take that 10th spot at the team event.
It all hinges on Australia's performance on the remaining Jnr. Grand Prix and Coomes and Buckland performance at 2013 Trophee Eric Bompard. Who would've known that the 10th spot for the team event will be fought between two nations who already have a deep rivallry in sport!
This took me hours to do so fingers crossed I got this right. Well, we will find out when the ISU announces the qualifiers in December!
GF2445 that's some nifty number work there! (I actually suck so much with numbers I struggle with simple addition.) That's ridiculously cool and left field that Australia might be able to enter the team event!!
Thanks Orange Cat. The team event was something i was always wondering about. When i initally set out to do this, i was joking to myself that Australia had a chance. As i was collating the data, this joke was not a joke anymore. It became alot more serious and when i added the points together, i was in disbelief! I double checked it to see if i made an error but so far my maths hasnt failed me.
Originally Posted by Orange Cat
Anyone willing to check to see if my data is ok?
EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA
Mmmm. Just out of curiosity, do you know why the Junior and Senior GP Series both count, but are treated in differnt ways?
Originally Posted by GF2445
In the Senior GP Series, the Final DOES count, as does the rest of the Senior GP competitions.
In the Junior GP Series, the Final DOES NOT count, but the rest of the Junior GP competitions do.
If it is a case that the ISU don't want countries qualifying on the basis of performances by their Junior representatives, then why include the Junior competitions in the calculations at all?
I realise that the reason they have included Junior competitions is so that candidates for the Olympic spot who have only just moved from Juniors to Seniors this season can use their form from Juniors. But it seems unfair that if they did well enough to get through to the Junior GP Final, that their Final points now don't count.
As I am from Northern Ireland, of course I want to see Jenna McCorkell competing in as many competitions at the Olympics as possible.
Originally Posted by GF2445
However, I have to admit, I would LOVE to see Australia get the chance to compete in the team competition! You have such a likable group of people competing at the moment!
And they have proved this week that they are pretty handy on the ice as well...!!!
WELL DONE FOR ALL YOUR HARD WORK IN CALCULATING ALL THIS, GF2445!!!
Originally Posted by CaroLiza_fan
I genuinely dont know why they dont count the junior grand prix final. When i was reading the rules, that was a point that stuck out to me. I found it odd that they did not count that event.
I always wanted to see Jenna have two good skates. This olympics will most likely be her swan song so all the best that she finishes her career strongly.
I made an error!! I read the qualification details wrong. I need to recaluclate.
Sorry. I made a massive error, Australia is not going to make the team event. Ukraine are way ahead on points and Great Britain is just out of reach for Austrslia.Sorry for keeping your hopes up. But nonetheless, im happy that Australia is being greating represented in figure skating next year.
If it means anything, Australia is the first alternate to the team event if members of a team dont wish to do the team event (which i doubt).
Still, that Australia came so close to the team event is just amazing
The land of SnuggleBat and Cuddlepie
What about JGPs upcoming? Australia has entrants in the forthcoming JGPs. Can we steal back enough points to beat the Poms? (we have to beat them at SOMETHING this year!)
Originally Posted by GF2445
The first time I typed #australiafortheteamevent it was meant to be lighthearted, in jest...then I watched Skate DownUnder and thought maybe, just maybe...and now, after Nebelhorn, to think, just think!!!, that it might be real, something that could really happen...that we could have the honour of saying we were part of the first ever team event...it's wonderful to even be talking about it!
Wicked Yankee Girl
Chris Reed (of Chris & Cathy Reed) has a torn meniscus and will probably not be skating in the NHK GP. Is it possible for Dani & Greg to get that spot? Australian fed should definitely be politicking for it.
Here's why they should get it, provided Dani & Greg's visas for Japan are updated.
Japan wants to win the team event. Coomes & Buckland typically score quite a bit higher than the Reeds. Dani & Greg, not always. When the team event is run, Japan would rather have Australia there rather than GBR, I would think.
I really have no idea. I wish they will consider the Australians but chances are if the there is a withdrawal, they usually won't replace them. It is up to the federation hosting the event whether they want a replacement or not. Last season, there was a tendency to not replace a team when injured. This was quite apparent when there were six or seven pair and dance teams out of eight in a couple of the events.
Originally Posted by dorispulaski
You'll never know!
I spent a good 3 hours reading the qualification document (let me tell you it's as clear as mud and can be easily misinterpreted!) and going through all the championships and Australia is going to be just out of reach of Great Britain.
Lets break it down.
Qualification points are earned by competing at a 2013 Championship (This includes Four Continents, Europeans, Junior Worlds and Worlds) or on the 2013-14 Grand Prix (Junior Grand Prix- not including the final AND Senior Grand Prix- including the final)
Let's go through it discipline by discipline
Great Britain has no man going to the Olympics so it can't receive points
So it will get 0 pts for 2013 championships and 0 pts for 2013-14 Grand Prix
Australia has a spot- most likely it will go to Brendan Kerry
The best result from a 2013 championship was 21st at 2013 Four Continents- 61 pts
The best result from the 2013-14 grand prix was 5th at JGP Latvia- 164pts (Brendan and David still have assignments but looking at the draw it is unlikely that they can earn any more points)
Great Britain has one lady going to the Olympics- Jenna Mccorkell
The best result from a 2013 championship was 20th at 2013 Worlds- 162 pts
No British lady has earned or is likely to earn points of the Junior Grand Prix and Jenna has no Grand Prix assignments so GBR will receive 0 pts for the 2013-14 Grand Prix Category
Australia has a spot in the ladies'- Brooklee Han
-According to the rules, even though Brooklee would earn more points if they counted her 12th place finish at 2013 Four Continents, since Brooklee earned points at 2013 Worlds, her performance at 2013 Worlds take precedence over her results at 2013 Four Continents. Brooklee finished 21st at 2013 Worlds and earned 146pts.
-The highest finish at a Grand Prix was 8th Place which both Chantelle and Brooklee earned at their respected JGP. Looking at the other draws it is unlikely that they will receive any additional points- 120pts
Great Britain has Stacy Kemp and David King finished 15th at Worlds (As said for Brooklee, Worlds scores take priority of scores at Europeans/Four Continents)- 275pts
There are no Grand Prix assignments on the senior circuit but they have a spot on the JGP-Molly Leneghan and Jake Astill finished 9th at a JGP so they get 108pts
Great Britain- Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland finished 13th at worlds and earned 339pts
Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland currently have a Grand Prix assignment in Paris and will probably finish no higher than 6th (That is 236pts). Currently, their points are being contributed Olivia Smart/Joseph Buckland's 7th place finish at a JGP- 133pts.
Dani and Greg finished 8th at 2013 Four Continents- 402pts
Australia have no other dance team on the JGP or GP so 0pts for them
If dorispulski's scenario did eventuate (Chris Reed is apparently injured) and Dani and Greg end up going to a Grand Prix (imagine that happing!!!), they would most likely finish 8th and last- that is 191pts
If this were to happen, Australia's score would boost up to 1084pts.
However, even if this were the case, the chance that Australia would have is if Penny and Nick finish last in their assignment. If that happened, Great Britain's total would be 1075pts.
But what are the chances that any of this would happen??
Withe the points redone the current scores are
Originally Posted by GF2445
UKR 1336pts (+ their assignment at Cup of Russia)
GBR Anywhere between 1017-1120pts
Australia is between 124-227pts shy of Great Britain (It all depends on Great Britain's performance on the Grand Prix Circuit).
Natalia Popova (UKR) compet at Skate Canada and Trophee Eric Bompard
maybe she can finish at 8th place or better and help Ukraine to going at Team event !!!
Dont worry. Ukraine already have enough points to qualify for the team event. They're safe
Originally Posted by patinage_adulte