With Nebelhorn behind us we now know which nations are eligible to participate in the team event.
Canada, China, Italy, Russia and the United are automatically qualified so I won't be using these countries in my analysis.
Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Japan, Australia and Ukraine also have the capability to participate.
For my analysis, I'll remove France, Germany and Japan as they will most definitely have enough points to make the team event.
This leaves four countries and only two spots.
In order to qualify for this event, nations have to earn qualification points. The 10 nations with the highest amount of qualification points will qualify for the team event. Here are a few pointers about qualification points.
1. Qualification points can only be earned at the following competitions (2013 European/Four Continents, 2013 Junior Worlds, 2013 Worlds, 2013-14 Junior Grand Prix Circuit (Not the Junior Grand Prix Final) and 2013-14 Senior Grand Prix (Including the final).
2. How the points are added is quite complicated. Points are accumulated from two categories: 2013 Championships and 2013-14 Grand Prix.
Catagory 1: 2013 Championships.
If a skater/couple earns qualification points at 2013 Worlds, whatever qualification points the skater/couple earn have to count. If the skater/couple did not receive qualification points at 2013 worlds BUT received qualification points at 2013 Europeans/2013 Four Continents and earned points, those points will count. If again the skater/couple did not earn qualification points at either 2013 Worlds OR 2013 Four Continents/2013 Europeans BUT participated and earned qualification points at 2013 Junior Worlds, those points will count. If the skater/couple did not participate or received qualification points from any of these events, they won’t earn points in this category.
Catagory 2: 2013-14 Grand Prix
If a skater/couple earns points at a Senior Grand Prix (including the final), whatever qualification points the skater/couple earn have to count. If the skater/couple do not receive any qualification points a Senior Grand Prix (including the final) BUT received qualification points at a 2013-14 Junior Grand Prix, they can use that. If they did not receive any qualification points from either event they cannot earn pointsfor this category.
3. Qualification points must be earned by the skater/couple who are participating in Sochi BUT may receive help from ONE other skater/couple for each of the two catagories (2013 Championships and 2013-14 Grand Prix).
Here is a list of skaters/couples who I predict will represent each of the following nations and which skater/couple will help them earn points. This list also shows how many qualification points they contribute
Jenna Mccorkell- 20th Place at 2013 Worlds- 162pts. (She has not Grand Prix assignments and she has no other help).
Stacy Kemp/David King- 15th Place at 2013 Worlds- 275pts. (They will only get help from the 2013-14 Grand Prix category- Molly Leneghan and Jake Astill finished 9th at a JGP- earned 108pts.)
Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland- 13th Place at 2013 Worlds- 339pts. (They will only get help from the 2013-14 Grand Prix category- Olivia Smart and Joseph Buckland finished 7th at a JGP- earned 133pts.)
*Smart/Buckland still have another JGP assignment left, so points can be readjusted.
*Penny Coomes/Nicholas Buckland are competing at Trophee Eric Bompard. I predict they will finish no higher than 6th at that event (236pts.)
Victor Romanenkov- 22nd Place at 2013 Worlds- 131pts. (He has no Grand Prix assignments and he has no other help).
Elena Glebova- 16th Place at Worlds- 247pts. (She has no Grand Prix Assignments and she has no other help).
Natalja Zabijako/Alexandr Zaboev- NOTHING and no help
There is still JGP Estonia still to come but looking at the entries, I doubt that any of the Estonian skaters will earn additional qualification points.
Total= 378 points
Yakov Godorozha- 23rd Place at 2013 Worlds- 118pts. (Ivan Pavlov finished 20th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 68pts and finished 8th at a JGP- earned 120pts.)
Natalia Popova- 15th Place at 2013 Worlds- 275pts. (Anna Khnychenkova finished 17th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 93pts.)
Elizaveta Usmantseva/Roman Talan- New pair- 0pts (Julia Lavrentieva/Yuri Rudyk finished 11th at 2013 Europeans- 293pts)
Siobhan Heekin-Caneedy/Dmitri Dun- 14th at 2013 Worlds- 305pts. (Alexandra Nazarova/Maxim Nikitin finished 11th at 2013 Junior Worlds- 174pts. and 2nd at a JGP- 225pts)
Total= 1671 pts.
*Ivan Pavlov and Nazarova/Nikitin still have another JGP assignment left, so points can be readjusted.
*Siobhan Heekin-Caneedy/Dmitri Dun will also be competing at 2013 Cup of Russia. I predict that they will finish no higher than 7th at that event (213pts.)
Brendan Kerry- 21st at 2013 Four Continents- 61pts & 5th at a JGP 164pts (David Kranjec finished 23rd at 2013 Four Continents 83pts).
*Brendan Kerry and David Kranjec still have an additional JGP assignment to complete. I predict that David can receicve points.
Brooklee Han- 21st at 2013 Worlds- 162 points & 8th at a JGP- 120pts. (Chantelle Kerry finished 14th at 2013 Four Continents-214pts and 8th at a JGP- 120pts)
*Brooklee and Chantelle still have an additional JGP assignment to complete.
Danielle O’brien/Gregory Merriman- 8th at 2013 Four Continents 402pts (No other help)
So to date (September 30th) the current standings are
1. Ukraine 1671pts
2. AUSTRALIA 1326pts
3. Great Britain 1017pts
4. Estonia 378pts
It is very well possible that Australia can take that 10th spot at the team event.
It all hinges on Australia's performance on the remaining Jnr. Grand Prix and Coomes and Buckland performance at 2013 Trophee Eric Bompard. Who would've known that the 10th spot for the team event will be fought between two nations who already have a deep rivallry in sport!
This took me hours to do so fingers crossed I got this right. Well, we will find out when the ISU announces the qualifiers in December!