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Thread: Can Kovtun close the gap on Plushenko?

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    When was that PB set though. Not anytime recently, unless it was in a Russian based B event with inflated scores I don't know of taking place (granted the scores here were inflated but Kovtun was the most sane and accurate score of all the Russian skaters here by far). I doubt Plushenko is even capable of skating at his Vancouver level (and even in Vancouver he was way past his prime) at this point.

    I agree if he did a clean SP with all those jumps it would be close between them but I am hard pressed seeing him do that based on any of the sightings of him since the 2012 Europeans. Then the LP would be even harder for him to get through anything like that at this juncture, although we have to see how Kovtun skates in the LP here.

    I am also not sure Plushenko would get super high PCS from international judges at this point. His programs are empty compared to what a lot of others are putting out these days, and he is much slower and skates with nowhere near the command and sharpness he did in his prime.
    2010 Euros, so yeah it's been a while.

  2. #152
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    His lp best was established in 2012 so there's that! Unless Volvo beat it but euros 2012 is more legit.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    He's not capable of skating to the technical ability, and his SP isn't as intricate as Kovtun's, but the judges would probably give him higher PCS than Kovtun for a clean skate with 4T-3T/3A/3Z. Bear in mind his PB is 91.30 points which is not too far off Kovtun's PCS-inflated personal best here.
    The Christmas time will be very exciting.( Russian National Champs will be held at Christmas)

  4. #154
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    I haven't watched Kovtun's LP from Rostelecom Cup yet but was super impressed with his short program. If he skates like that at Russian Nationals I honestly think he's going to be very hard to beat.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I expect Kovtun to make mistakes in the FS, but not enough to blow his spot in the GPF. And based on today's PCS, I wouldn't be surprised if he clung to gold or silver ahead of Machida/Fernandez with home ice inflation. I would hope that he earns his victory, and that being said, this certainly throws his name into the hat over Plushenko. IMO, the other Russian guys - Menshov/Gachinski/etc. have no chance, having lost the SP by a whopping 20 points.
    He certainly made errors but ridiculous PCS once again put him above 240. I'm glad that didn't cost Machida the win as it did Julia's inflation in the ladies to Kostner's detriment.

    Unfortunate though... I really want him to go to Sochi, particularly after that amazing SP. at least his inflation will be curbed a bit while Plushenko's will be through the roof.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by gmyers View Post
    Others or non Russians are irrelevant. Kovtun programs are full? It's now kovtun vs plushenko. Unless you think kovtun would get superior pcs to plushenko.

    I believe plushenko can absolutely not do the team and individual so it might be both anyway.
    If I understand the rules correctly, it can only be both if the Olympic Entry (Kovtun or Plushenko) gets "injured" after the team event, and is replaced for the individual event. Based on the scoring shenanigans at COR, I wouldn't put it past the RSF to try this.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sjs5572 View Post
    If I understand the rules correctly, it can only be both if the Olympic Entry (Kovtun or Plushenko) gets "injured" after the team event, and is replaced for the individual event. Based on the scoring shenanigans at COR, I wouldn't put it past the RSF to try this.
    I know Plushy has said he will do both but his best chance at a medal is the team event. And probably gold at that. I can picture him winning team gold, "getting injured" and Kovtun being given the green light to compete individually. This way Plushenko gets to have his final performance and the "next generation" in Kovtun is showcased.

    Funny enough that would be the ideal for me, and probably others, were it not bending the rules.

  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I know Plushy has said he will do both but his best chance at a medal is the team event. And probably gold at that. I can picture him winning team gold, "getting injured" and Kovtun being given the green light to compete individually. This way Plushenko gets to have his final performance and the "next generation" in Kovtun is showcased.

    Funny enough that would be the ideal for me, and probably others, were it not bending the rules.

    LOL that would be funny. I wonder who is the favorite for team gold now. I was thinking Canada, but increasingly I am thinking Russia. Their ladies are much stronger than ours now, and their pairs obviously too. With overscoring in dance and mens they will probably have the points to win.

  9. #159
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    On paper it's pretty neck in neck... We will defeat them in dance by a bit, they will defeat us in pairs by a bit. In men's Chan will likely be a few placements above Kovtun/Plush and in ladies Sot/Lip (or Pogo/Tukt somehow) will be likely a few placements above Osmond. If Osmond skates well, Team Canada should win. If the Russian man/woman exceeds expectations or receives CoR generosity (which I would expect), team Russia will win. I think they will push for Team Gold more than anything (I mean they already have a lock in pairs), so expect to see inflation in the team events.

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    On paper it's pretty neck in neck... We will defeat them in dance by a bit, they will defeat is in pairs by a bit. In men's Chan will likely be a few placements above Kovtun/Plush and in ladies Sot/Lip (or Pogo/Tukt somehow) will be a few placements above Osmond. If Osmond skates well, Team Canada should win. If the Russian man/woman exceeds expectations or receives CoR generosity, team Russia will win. I think they will push for Team Gold more than anything (I mean they already have a lock in pairs).
    I am not entirely sure on the team format as it is new, except that it goes by placements as opposed to points. However even if Osmond skates fairly well I could see numerous skaters fitting between her and the Russian(s) (depending if they use 1 or 2) at this point. The top men have been a mess this year apart from Chan and some of the Japanese, so Kovtun/Plushenko might well come close to him than Osmond comes to say Lipnitskaia. I also think B&S or I&K with the benefit of home cooked judging could end up just 1 place behind V&M (who might well be behind D&W, just as they might well be in the individual event), while Duhamel & Radford might not be just 1 place behind Voloszhar & Trankov. Is Germany entering the team event? Are China? I am pretty sure Italy is, although D&R or Moore Towers & Moscovitch can beat them if they skate reasonably well. If all the countries with a top pair enter though the Canadian pair entry will probably be atleast 2 places behind V&T, and quite possibly more. While it is not impossible I am not predicting a medal for Canada in pairs right now for instance.

    So at the moment I think I am leaning a bit more to Russia.

  11. #161
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    Short program at Rostelecomm was VERY impressive. Peter Tchernychev (sp?) should be given a lot of credit for designing such an impressive and commanding program. The Triple axel does not have much distance, but is absolutely clean.

  12. #162
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    After his LP performance at Rostelecom, me thinks NO.

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