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Thread: GP Predictions Game Year 2 :)

  1. #571
    EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA CaroLiza_fan's Avatar
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    Firstly, categories for the scorers.

    I think it would be sensible for the scorers that are continuing from the GP Game to score the same categories.

    So, here are the rosters:

    Ladies: Li'Kitsu (with me taking over for American and Canadian Nationals)
    Men: guenever (since you finished higher than FSGMT in Men's in the GP Game)
    Pairs: Wilhelmina
    Dance: FSGMT (since you finished top 10 in Dance in the GP Game!)


    Quote Originally Posted by pitterpatter View Post
    I strongly think that including disciplines with less than 5 entries, when we're going to be keeping the rules from the game, would skew the results anyway so we should leave them out. For example, if Pairs and Ice Dance at Japanese Nationals only has 3 entries each, but we're doing top 5 for Ladies and Men, there's no way we can make the disciplines worth the same amount, unless we do some complicated weighted formula or only score up to the lowest number of entries.

    Also, if there are only 2 or 3 entries in an event, chances are everyone's predictions are going to be similar anyway so it would be meaningless to count them towards the scores. (ie - there isn't much value in predicting Reed/Reed for first place in Ice Dance). Everyone's scores relative to each other will still be valid, and we could still have overall winners in each of the disciplines.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wilhelmina View Post
    I agree with pitterpatter -- whether we include or exclude disciplines with fewer than 5 entries, everyone's scores relative to each other in those events/disciplines will be pretty much the same, so it doesn't make much difference.
    Very good points from both of you. If we include them, it will skew the results to towards these categories; if we don't include them, it will skew the results towards the other categories.

    I've been awake a lot of the night thinking about all the pros and cons of including them, and have come up with a compromise which might work.

    This is the first running of the Nationals Prediction Game, so it is natural that there is going to be some experimenting going on.

    So, how about we ask the players to make predictions for ALL categories, but only include in the Game those categories with 5 or more entries.

    I will then personally score these under-entered categories (to give myself a bit of practice ahead of taking over Ladies from Li'Kitsu). Then, after the Game is finished, we can add these scores in and check what difference they would have made to the overall results.

    Doing it this way would then give us a better understanding of the skewing, and would help us make a better informed decision when it comes to running the Game again next season.

    CaroLiza_fan

  2. #572
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaroLiza_fan View Post
    I will then personally score these under-entered categories (to give myself a bit of practice ahead of taking over Ladies from Li'Kitsu). Then, after the Game is finished, we can add these scores in and check what difference they would have made to the overall results.

    Doing it this way would then give us a better understanding of the skewing, and would help us make a better informed decision when it comes to running the Game again next season.

    CaroLiza_fan
    I think it wouldn't be fair to decide this after the game ends, because some people would have their placements affected by whether or not they're included. Also, if you enter the scores into the sheet it would automatically add it to the total, unless by personally score you mean recording the scores somewhere other than the spreadsheet.

    If everyone else thinks that it would be best to include disciplines with less than 5 entries, i'm fine with that as it shouldn't make too much of a difference overall.

  3. #573
    On the Ice guenever's Avatar
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    I think five as a cut-off makes sense, since what people are guessing is top five placements.

  4. #574
    EZETTIE LATUASV IVAKMHA CaroLiza_fan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pitterpatter View Post
    I think it wouldn't be fair to decide this after the game ends, because some people would have their placements affected by whether or not they're included. Also, if you enter the scores into the sheet it would automatically add it to the total, unless by personally score you mean recording the scores somewhere other than the spreadsheet.
    Oh no, I don't mean adding the scores in officially, so that they affect the results!

    I just meant that they should be recorded somewhere for our own de-brief at the end of the process so that we, the organisers, can work out whether it was a good idea to exclude them or not.

    And, yes, we will use 5 as the cut off. Any fewer entries, and that discipline won't count towards the Game score.

    I'm going to amend the rules post now, and then create the individual event threads. I'll create a thread for Italians anyway, just in case we manage to get an entry list between now and Thursday.

    CaroLiza_fan

  5. #575
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    Quote Originally Posted by FSGMT View Post
    Yes, that's ok for me! I don't have any particular preference, after all scoring is scoring! Please when you have organized all this send a PM to me to explain all the details (I'm not exactly a "computer genius", too )
    I just wanted to check if you received the PM I sent you a couple of days ago I need some information from you to give you editing privileges on the spreadsheet.

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