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Thread: Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi?

  1. #46
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    I think the two-man luge will be enough homoeroticism, thank you very much.

    Hah, Johnny in Vancouver was great. Same with him in Turin (Camille!); he brought more talkability and excitement to the men's event - especially the "controversy" surrounding his gayness. It was the perfect example of "Yeah, I'm totally gay, but I'm not going to qualify your questioning me about it... as if that should define me." Figure skating is a fabulous sport, and a very gay-friendly sport. If the Russians are trying to suppress the gays in figure skating of all sports, they'd have better luck trying to hide a dinosaur with a tea towel.

  2. #47
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Finally, the costume - for me, it comes across as very distracting and somewhat inappropriate for the Olympics. With the controversy surrounding Russian gay rights in Sochi, would it be wise for the sport of figure skating, at least Men Singles, to be perceived as effeminate with costume like that?
    Ugh, this attitude is the worst.

    GAY PEOPLE EXIST AND "EFFEMINATE" CLOTHING CHOICES EXIST. THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH EITHER. GET OVER IT.

  3. #48
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    For that matter, what is "effeminate" is definitely a matter of personal taste rather than an absolute. I doubt the guy on the right in this picture thinks of his clothing as effeminate, but to me it looks like a dress.

    http://www.english.globalarabnetwork...eds-hopes.html

  4. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Right, I meant in terms of reliability in executing all their technical content, Fernandez is slightly more consistent at this point which give him an edge over Hanyu. Although Hanyu has an edge in points (note that Fernandez chooses to do a solo 3S instead of a 3Z or 3F at the end), I also consider 3 quads and a 3A to be greater than 2 quads and 2 3As, in terms of technical ability.
    Interesting that you think that. Fernandez' 4S is definitely more consistent, but regarding 'technical ability,' I think the only metric for what's greater or not is the value awarded for the elements, in which case I don't think Fernandez has an edge. In fact, Hanyu consistently gets higher +GOEs for his technical content, which actually points to him having the technical edge.

    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    I am not convinced Hanyu's spot is locked either. Based on his performance at Finlandia : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EkVx3jyFUg

    I know look is subjective and don't claim to be any authority when it comes to style. Though with decades in this sport, I want to believe I have keen sense of what's too far and what's not. When the Shibutani were red hot a few years ago, I knew their outward projection could eventually become a burden for them and it did. Take it however you will, appearance and how you project yourself still matter a great deal in this sport, so is the perception of the outside world beyond the skating community. We don't live in bubbles. In an Olympic year, Hanyu's choice of style and lack of improvement in his delivery presents a risk should he fails to deliver his jumping content. We are already seeing some early signs - in Finlandia FS where he made 3 jumping errors, his first mark is still vastly higher than his PCS. That's in a competition where he had no close rivals. Fernandez who arguably doesn't have the same natural technical talent that he has, consistently beat Hanyu in PCS last season - again, Fernandez projects very well on ice and off, which helps him a great deal and compensate for his disadvantages. As a result, Hanyu having the highest TES at the 2013 Worlds FS but only 6th in PCS, failed to make the podium. The difference between his TES and PCS was a wooping 9 points, in favor of TES. Even Joubert had higher PCS than he did, who finished 10th in the FS.

    Simply put, JSF will need to take into account this obvious problem that Hanyu has, his inability to get high PCS scores. Having the same coach as Fernandez and outskated him technically yet still lost is a major warning sign that something is not right with his skating.
    No comment on the 'lack of improvement' and 'look' comments as those are subjective, but I think your point on the PCS scoring is just plain incorrect. Fernandez did not beat Hanyu in PCS all throughout last season, he actually lost to him in PCS even for his GPF free skate performance, which was a stunner and pretty close to perfect. He also lost to Hanyu in PCS for the short program all season long, even for the Worlds SP where Hanyu performed terribly.

    I'm not too sure who you're comparing his PCS scores to, because IMO they're definitely extremely competitive. This season his free skate looks a lot more promising than last season as well, and he received great scores at Finlandia even with mistakes. On a first outing comparison, I think he beat Fernandez's scores at JO? (someone correct me if I'm wrong).

    I'm also skeptical about using the TES vs PCS differential as an indicator of any kind. If Hanyu or Fernandez go clean, the TES score can potentially be 100+, so if someone gets 102 TES and 90 PCS, are we suppose to be concerned that there's a 12 point difference between TES and PCS?

  5. #50
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    I hope it will be Kozuka.
    Probably they will also send Hanyu and Takahashi. I don't understand what has to do Fernandez vs Hanyu with the selection for Japanese spots, what Japanese man could close the gap with Fernandez if Hanyu can't????

  6. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pitterpatter View Post
    Interesting that you think that. Fernandez' 4S is definitely more consistent, but regarding 'technical ability,' I think the only metric for what's greater or not is the value awarded for the elements, in which case I don't think Fernandez has an edge. In fact, Hanyu consistently gets higher +GOEs for his technical content, which actually points to him having the technical edge.
    The way I see it, both are prone to making mistakes, but Hanyu's mistakes tend to adversely affect his TES scores more. Also, by virtue of having 3 quads, even though Fernandez tends to get less GOE, the GOE on his quads is magnified (because of their base value), so he can make up ground.

    I've always seen programs as how many quads were landed. I think a lot of people will say a 3 quad program is technically superior to a 2 quad program, even if the 3 quad program has only one triple axel.

  7. #52
    Thanks Team Abbott snowflake's Avatar
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    If Hanyu doesn't make it to Sochi(being healthy) I'll eat my… well, something (absolutely not my dog) He is a fabulous, exciting, much talented skater who belongs there and will be.

    Takahashi will be held up at nationals and also internationally as much as possible. Because he is a gorgeous skater, very much popular and an asset to the Olympics and the sport

    I want them and Nobunari on the Japanese team… the competition will be


    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Like it or not, stereotypes are part of our lives.
    … and ours to fight…

    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Fair or not, people's perception matter. To be a successful champion, one needs to know how to manage that on ice and off ice.
    Suiting people's perception to be a champion ….kudos to them providing their own perception Main stream is boring.

  8. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowflake View Post
    Suiting people's perception to be a champion ….kudos to them providing their own perception Main stream is boring.
    Exactly. This is like when Elvis was complaining that skater's need to skate more "masculine". No, skaters should skate how they choose to skate, and wear whatever they like. It's more important what you do on the ice, than what you're wearing on it... otherwise Kulik never would have won Olympic gold with that horrendous giraffe get-up in Nagano.

  9. #54
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    Hanyu and Takahashi are going no matter what. Even if one bombs at Nationals they will either be held up and still placed top 3 at Nationals, or be placed on the team over whomever places 3rd at Nationals. So that leaves 1 spot. It is between Kozuka, Oda, Mura. I really dont think Machida has a shot anymore. Mura is most consistent but has the lowest scoring potential. Kozuka has the most scoring potential at his best probably, but is also the most inconsistent of the three at this point. Oda is off to his usual strong start, but when he goes up against the better skaters his PCS will likely plunge based on recent years, and he tends to skate less and less clean programs as the year goes on. So it is a virtual toss up. Have a feeling it will be Kozuka though.

    As for Hanyu vs Fernandez, Fernandez actually got more GOE for his clean elements and higher PCS in the LP at Worlds. I know that wasnt Hanyu at his best but it wasnt Fernandez skating perfectly either. I think Fernandez is improving his GOE and PCS both, and will be even more competitive next year with Hanyu in both of those, and his base value in both programs should be higher with what he is now planning. Add to that Hanyu cant skate clean LPs with his stamina issues and I give Fernandez the edge going into next season for now. I have a feeling one of those will win the OGM though, as much as I would rather Takahashi win it.

  10. #55
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    at this point only Yuzuru is a lock barring injuries

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Hanyu is pretty much a guarantee.
    Takahashi is a sure bet, but he will have to earn it. I'm really hoping he doesn't perform subpar and the other guys actually skate well and he's still held up.
    Oda would be my bet for the bronze. He's got a renewed confidence.
    Kozuka is my pick to push Dai off the podium.

    To me, the most logical prediction for Japanese nationals:
    1. Hanyu
    2. Takahashi
    3. Oda
    4. Kozuka

    A situation I can totally picture playing out:
    1. Hanyu
    2. Oda
    3. Kozuka
    4. Takahashi

    I think the difference is, if Takahashi fails to medal at Japanese Nationals I can picture his fed giving him another chance (maybe even Kozuka too). Unfortunately for Oda, he will have to bring his goods to Nationals because if he doesn't make the podium, he's likely off the team. But yeah, that's not even getting into Mura and Machida.... so much talent!
    Unless Takahashi or Hanyu are out of the top 3, they will send the top 3 from Nationals. No questions at all. There is no way they will be sending anyone else who doesnt make top 3 at Nationals as nobody else is significantly ahead of the others, unless someone not named Takahashi or Hanyu burns up the GP circuit (and I mean doing more than just making the Grand Prix final and finishing off the podium there).

    Meanwhile if Takahashi or Hanyu miss the podium, especialy if they have done well on the Grand Prix, I would see them being named to the team without even needing "another chance". In 2006 Miki Ando placed 6th at her Nationals and was still sent to the Olympics. Again in 2010 when she was 4th. They didnt even make her go to Four Continents, she was on he team. In 2006 she wasnt even close to the dominant Japanese skater either- Asada (ineligible for those years Games), Shizuka, and Fumie Suguri were all considered better at that point, so even as only at most 3rd best eligible skater she was sent over 2 eligible skaters who beat her at Nationals. So Hanyu or Takahashi would easily be given that. Japanese dont just base their teams on results from Nationals, except for those who were not ever considered to have an edge on the others (eg- Kozuka, Oda, Suzuki) to begin with.



    People also need to get off the habit of reading too much into Oda's early season performances. He always looks very strong early season, and fades as it goes. Plus one cant take the scores of Nelberhorn seriously. The scores in every event there were a joke. Just look at Volosozhar & Trankov's scores for so early in the season, and Miki clearing 100 points for that lame LP (which she did similar at a regional event in Japan and was well below 100). Oda with the type of PCS he will get when skating against the Worlds top skaters these days would never get a LP scores like that without going well further beyond the technical content he produced at Nelberhorn.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    People also need to get off the habit of reading too much into Oda's early season performances. He always looks very strong early season, and fades as it goes. Plus one cant take the scores of Nelberhorn seriously. The scores in every event there were a joke. Just look at Volosozhar & Trankov's scores for so early in the season, and Miki clearing 100 points for that lame LP (which she did similar at a regional event in Japan and was well below 100). Oda with the type of PCS he will get when skating against the Worlds top skaters these days would never get a LP scores like that without going well further beyond the technical content he produced at Nelberhorn.
    The technical content Oda produced at Nebelhorn was superb and there's not much beyond that he could do. His only major error was turning his second 4T into a 3T (and not doing a 3-jump combo) and yet he still earned 92 points of TES. He essentially did more technical content than what Denis Ten did to get World silver.

    Plus, we all know that the judges aren't itching to do Oda any PCS favours like World Champions V/T & former World Champion Ando. Note that he didn't get a personal best PCS score in his SP with 38.47 points (which would have been a 9th best PCS score in the 2013 Worlds SP). His PCS in the FS, with a quad and 8 triples including two 3As, was just 83.56 points. No inflation, there, IMO. His whopping score was definitely earned by his strong technical showing in both programs, and many of the World's top men would have had trouble matching that performance.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by wallylutz View Post
    Know that also, Russia has a favorite son in that competition. Scapegoat is easy when things don't go certain way (read my lips: if Plushenko fails to deliever for any reason, something or someone else will be blamed, you can bet on it). It already happened once before, in case you forgot. At the Vancouver Olympics. Plushenko's scapegoat = men without quads = ladies' skating => Evan Lysacek is a girl.
    Ha, ha so true! Leave it to the Russians to make excuses and accusations of conspiracy if Plushy doesn't do well. Should make for an interesting event to say the least.

    As far as Hanyu and his costume goes, I am happy he chose something attractive and "mainstream" for his SP as it balances out his new LP look, which in my opinion isn't that bad. We've seen much worse from other skaters.

    Also, I've read pretty much everything out there on Hanyu, and his off-ice look seems really quite normal for an 18 year old boy. Nothing to get the Russians excited about there.

  14. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by msteach3 View Post
    Ha, ha so true! Leave it to the Russians to make excuses and accusations of conspiracy if Plushy doesn't do well. Should make for an interesting event to say the least.
    The same will happen if something goes wrong for Canadians or Americans, we all know they are also obsessed with conspiracies. Russians, Canadians, Americans will make the Olympics interesting, I will just sit and enjoy the show and support my favorite skaters, as usual, despite their nationality, hair color, gays or not etc.

  15. #60
    the Golden Era sky_fly20's Avatar
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    Japan Fed may be screwing their athletes but the athletes don't make excuses
    a japanese culture and mentality perhaps

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