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Thread: Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi?

  1. #91
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    At this point I would call an Olympic Team of Hanyu, Takahashi, and Machida, although I agree now Hanyu is the only lock. Mura, Oda, and Kozuka all still have an outside shot. I think if Takahashi skates haflway decent he will still not be ever placed below Oda or a fading Kozuka, especialy at Japanese Nationals.

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    Historically, getting 1st and 4th has always been enough to make the GPF, but this year that might not be enough. There's so much talent that is in good form.
    Very true.

    As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF. Maybe not too much. At NHK, he is skating against two others of the amazing cast of six. He only has to be better than two other skaters to make the team. Just two (albeit really good skaters). Forgetting whether he wins at NHK and qualifies for GPF (it would probably put him for a lock if he did), it should still be okay for the Olympic team if he comes out properly ahead of Mura and Oda at NHK, shouldn't it? At NHK, his most important competition is between him and his own nationals for a spot.

    (Edited note from me: Sorry, I had a brain freeze. Ya, he has to beat three skaters, but just two that day, and he has already come out ahead of Kozuka. That is what I meant. So he has done okay at the Grand Prix beating two at NHK and one at SA, and it comes down to Japanese Nationals. Sorry for the brain freeze.)

  3. #93
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    I really hope Daisuke can come ahead of Mura and Oda, but I'm not sure that he will. Oda, in particular, is a great skater and if has learnt to count, there is a very strong possibility that he will come out ahead.

    It breaks my heart to think that Daisuke will not make the Olympic team, but I think it is feasible that it will be Yuzuru, Machida and Oda who make the team.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by phaeljones View Post

    As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF
    You probably raise a good point. Last season, he peaked at GPF and JN. Ideally, any skater would want a good final season throughout but his main goal is Sochi OGM and has been since 2011. He might want to save his body for the competitions that count (JN and Sochi).

    He already achieved his GPF gold last season so theres nothing left to achieve there. Everybody (a majority) seems to agree that if he does well at JN, regardless GP results, he'll make the team.

    I doubt he really needs GPF for reputation at the Olympics?

  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by phaeljones View Post
    Very true.

    As well, I am just wondering if it is really that important for Takahashi to make GPF. Maybe not too much. At NHK, he is skating against two others of the amazing cast of six. He only has to be better than two other skaters to make the team. Just two (albeit really good skaters). Forgetting whether he wins at NHK and qualifies for GPF (it would probably put him for a lock if he did), it should still be okay for the Olympic team if he comes out properly ahead of Mura and Oda at NHK, shouldn't it? At NHK, his most important competition is between him and his own nationals for a spot.
    I see your logic, but considering the JSF s selection criteria, I think beating the two other Japanese skaters at NHK wont mean anything if he doesn't get a GPF spot out of it. This competition for olympic spots comprises of two parts - one is performance in the GP series, culminating in the final, second part is nationals. for someone like machida, strong showings throughout the GP and also at nats will be necessary to give him a shot at an Olympic spot. for takahashi, if he gets into the GPF and performs well, even if he falters at nats there'll be justification to put him through. if he doesn't get into the final, he wont have that cushion and will have to grab top three at nats

  6. #96
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pitterpatter View Post
    Considering the JSF selection criteria, I think beating the two other Japanese skaters at NHK wont mean anything if he doesn't get a GPF spot out of it.
    I disagree. One of the selection criteria is World ranking. Takahashi is going to be top 3 in terms of World ranking among the Japanese Men no matter what (simply because of his record the past two seasons, in comparison to all of the other Japanese guys except Hanyu having missed a lot of key events the past two seasons). Because of that alone, he can theoretically still be selected for the Olympic team even if he bombs NHK and Japanese Nationals.

    He won't be selected if he bombs both competitions, but if he delivers at NHK (and then doesn't do so well at Japanese Nationals), that still might be enough for the Japanese fed to put him on the team. Even if he doesn't make the GPF.

    Simply making the GPF doesn't mean anything to begin with. Takahashi would have to actually do well there for it to mean anything. Given his current state, what are the chances he does really well at the Grand Prix final? I think not a great chance.

    Basically, the point I'm trying to get at is that Takahashi should probably aim to peak at Japanese Nationals. He doesn't need the Grand Prix to hype up his name, like the other Japanese Men (aside from Hanyu) need it. He just needs to be top 3 at Japanese Nationals. If he manages that, I'm 99.9% sure he will be put on the team...UNLESS Hanyu is out of the top 3 at Nationals after delivering big time on the Grand Prix circuit, and Takahashi is only 3rd at Japanese Nationals. If that scenario happens, then I think Takahashi will be left off the team in favor of Hanyu.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by hurrah View Post
    I really hope Daisuke can come ahead of Mura and Oda, but I'm not sure that he will. Oda, in particular, is a great skater and if has learnt to count, there is a very strong possibility that he will come out ahead.

    It breaks my heart to think that Daisuke will not make the Olympic team, but I think it is feasible that it will be Yuzuru, Machida and Oda who make the team.
    The marketers at JSF have a backup plan. The worlds this year is held at Japan. A skater who fails to make it to the Olympic team could be sent to worlds. While the event won't have as much buzz as the Olympics, it could be a good send off for any skaters planning on retiring after a high profile domestic event.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    I disagree. One of the selection criteria is World ranking. Takahashi is going to be top 3 in terms of World ranking among the Japanese Men no matter what (simply because of his record the past two seasons, in comparison to all of the other Japanese guys except Hanyu having missed a lot of key events the past two seasons). Because of that alone, he can theoretically still be selected for the Olympic team even if he bombs NHK and Japanese Nationals.
    Part of his world ranking is due to actually be able to have competed at Worlds though, right? Not to mention selections to specific competitions like 4CC.

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