Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi? | Page 2 | Golden Skate

Which three Japanese men will go to Sochi?

pitterpatter

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 25, 2012
I think Dai is still very likely to earn a trip to Sochi, but I agree with those who think his spot isn't 100% assured. If you look past the (well deserved) reputation he's earned over the years and consider the current state of the field in this pre-season, Oda and Machida are looking very comfortable while Dai's jumps honestly don't look to be getting any better. I still think his PCS and ability to deliver under pressure will put him through, but it's going to be a nail biter. Hopefully what we saw at the Japan Open was an early season blip and he'll improve as the season progresses. If his jumps have regressed though, he's going to be spending the season trying to get back his form rather than pushing forward and improving.

I'm still more worried for Takahiko than Dai at this point... Taka's performance at the Japan Open wasn't terribly impressive, and his foot injury can't have helped his progress. Yuzuru, Dai and Taka are still a notch above the rest of the Japanese men IMO, but Machida and especially Oda are really making a case for themselves with great programs and strong jumps. If they can keep this up throughout the season, I wouldn't be too surprised if one of them snatched a spot to Sochi.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Hanyu is pretty much a guarantee.
Takahashi is a sure bet, but he will have to earn it. I'm really hoping he doesn't perform subpar and the other guys actually skate well and he's still held up.
Oda would be my bet for the bronze. He's got a renewed confidence.
Kozuka is my pick to push Dai off the podium.

To me, the most logical prediction for Japanese nationals:
1. Hanyu
2. Takahashi
3. Oda
4. Kozuka

A situation I can totally picture playing out:
1. Hanyu
2. Oda
3. Kozuka
4. Takahashi

I think the difference is, if Takahashi fails to medal at Japanese Nationals I can picture his fed giving him another chance (maybe even Kozuka too). Unfortunately for Oda, he will have to bring his goods to Nationals because if he doesn't make the podium, he's likely off the team. But yeah, that's not even getting into Mura and Machida.... so much talent!
 

lcd

Match Penalty
Joined
Mar 11, 2007
Takahashi has made it known that this will be his final competitive season I believe. Do we know or have an inkling about any of the other more experienced men? Not that it should, but I wonder if sentimentality will factor in this at all. Oda has been to the Olympics previously I would note.
 

Srin Odessa

On the Ice
Joined
Jan 23, 2012
Takahashi has made it known that this will be his final competitive season I believe. Do we know or have an inkling about any of the other more experienced men? Not that it should, but I wonder if sentimentality will factor in this at all. Oda has been to the Olympics previously I would note.

Takahashi, Oda, and Kozuka were all at the 2010 Olympics. They were 3rd, 7th, and 8th respectively. I think Oda could have moved up a spot or two if he didn't have that penalty for his interruption.
 

seniorita

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2008
I hope Kozuka goes as a personal favorite even though I like Oda and Machilda and japan is capable of sending like 6 top men at Sochi
 

inskate

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 27, 2007
Takahashi has made it known that this will be his final competitive season I believe. Do we know or have an inkling about any of the other more experienced men?

Yes, Daisuke is retiring for sure. I think his body wouldn't handle competing for more seasons too well, especially now when quads are a must to stay truly competetive. He talked about his future plans in a Japanese newspaper, but the person who was going to translate it seems to have disappeared off the net (or changed their Tumblr username). However, the translator mentioned that they left Daisuke's interview as the latest to translate, because it made them depressed. It made me wonder if Daisuke said that he planned to take a break from skating altogether... :)

Nobunari is also retiring. After Sochi he wants to spend more time with his family and become a coach in Osaka. He said that he plans to learn from Canadian coaches, and hopefully help to develop pairs and ice dancing in Japan. His goal is to have his future pupils win an Olympic gold. :)

Takahiko's interview made it unclear whether or not he plans to retire. He said he wants to concentrate on his studies more, and maybe become a JSF member in the future. ;) A bit sadder news is that in a recent news it was mentioned that his injury might end up requiring surgery. Takahiko postponed it until after the Olympics - I hope all those quads until then won't mess up his leg permanently.

I haven't heard anything about Takahito's plans, but he got married recently and his child was born, so he might be thinking about retiring as well.

I haven't heard anything from Tatsuki, either, but I really hope he will hang on for a few more years. His skating really improved recently. :)


As for the predictions, I don't think my heart can stand it. :( IMHO all of the guys did well enough to deserve an Olympic spot, and I'll be sad for all those who won't make it.

One thing to remember, though - the selection process will NOT be based solely on the Japanese Nationals.

Here's the link to a pdf document listing the Olympic figure skating team selection criteria (in Japanese): http://skatingjapan.or.jp/image_data/fck/file/2013/130619_FS_senkokijun.pdf

Rough translation:

The Olympic Team of Men and Ladies single will be announced at the end of Japanese Nationals.
The team will be decided from among the Olympic qualifiers by the following selecting method:

1. The first spot will be awarded to the winner of the Japanese Nationals.
2. The second spot will be awarded to a skater chosen from the following pool: the winner of the silver medal at Japanese Nationals, the winner of the bronze medal at Japanese Nationals and the skater who placed the highest on the podium at the Grand Prix final.
3. The third spot will be awarded to a skater chosen from the following pool: the skater qualified in point 2 but was not chosen, 3 skaters who will have the highest World standing at the moment of the Japanese Nationals, 3 skaters with the highest ISU season best score.

So basically, only the winner of the Japanese Nationals is certain to get a spot (and even that might possibly be influenced by the skater's international success, as the judges are more likely to give high PCS/GoEs to a skater who proved their consistency). If the second place winner has no high international standing, his season PB is lower than 3rd best and he didn't make the GPF, he might find himself booted off the team.

To sum up: the entire season including the Nationals will be a bloodbath. :( Every competition counts, as making the GPF (& winning a medal there), high season PB and high ISU standing will help to decide 2nd and 3rd spot. I don't envy those skaters who are slotted at the most packed GP events (Skate Canada: Hanyu, Oda, Mura + Chan & Abott; NHK Trophy: Oda, Mura, Takahashi + Fernandez, Abott & Aaron). :(
 

wallylutz

Medalist
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
One thing to remember, though - the selection process will NOT be based solely on the Japanese Nationals.

Here's the link to a pdf document listing the Olympic figure skating team selection criteria (in Japanese): http://skatingjapan.or.jp/image_data/fck/file/2013/130619_FS_senkokijun.pdf

Rough translation:

The Olympic Team of Men and Ladies single will be announced at the end of Japanese Nationals.
The team will be decided from among the Olympic qualifiers by the following selecting method:

1. The first spot will be awarded to the winner of the Japanese Nationals.
2. The second spot will be awarded to a skater chosen from the following pool: the winner of the silver medal at Japanese Nationals, the winner of the bronze medal at Japanese Nationals and the skater who placed the highest on the podium at the Grand Prix final.
3. The third spot will be awarded to a skater chosen from the following pool: the skater qualified in point 2 but was not chosen, 3 skaters who will have the highest World standing at the moment of the Japanese Nationals, 3 skaters with the highest ISU season best score.

So basically, only the winner of the Japanese Nationals is certain to get a spot (and even that might possibly be influenced by the skater's international success, as the judges are more likely to give high PCS/GoEs to a skater who proved their consistency). If the second place winner has no high international standing, his season PB is lower than 3rd best and he didn't make the GPF, he might find himself booted off the team.

To sum up: the entire season including the Nationals will be a bloodbath. :( Every competition counts, as making the GPF (& winning a medal there), high season PB and high ISU standing will help to decide 2nd and 3rd spot. I don't envy those skaters who are slotted at the most packed GP events (Skate Canada: Hanyu, Oda, Mura + Chan & Abott; NHK Trophy: Oda, Mura, Takahashi + Fernandez, Abott & Aaron). :(

Based on early season performance so far from Kozuka, Oda, Takahashi and Hanyu, I can see the following realistic scenario playing out :

- Kozuka, Oda and Hanyu made GPF in which Oda won a Bronze medal = highest place Japanese from GPF (Oda has always done quite well in GP Series)

- At Japanese Nationals, Kozuka won the Nationals for the 3rd time while Takahashi finished 4th

- Hanyu has the highest ISU World ranking

So, how would they justify giving Takahashi a spot based on the set criteria?
 

Blades of Passion

Skating is Art, if you let it be
Record Breaker
Joined
Sep 14, 2008
Country
France
So, how would they justify giving Takahashi a spot based on the set criteria?

The 3 highest Japanese Men in terms of both World standing and Season best score are eligible under criteria #3. Takahashi will be in the top 3 amongst the Japanese Men in terms of World standing, so even if he doesn't skate that well during the Grand Prix and Japanese Nationals, he could still be picked.

If Takahashi doesn't make the GPF and isn't top 3 at Japanese Nationals, though, I don't think he will be chosen.
 

LRK

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 13, 2012
The thing, though, is that Japanese men seem often to be quite inconsistent. I don't think it's a good idea to base too much speculation on how one of them will skate at one competition simply based on how they skated at their last one. Especially Dai. He can struggle at one competition - and be brilliant the next. Or vice versa.
 

inskate

On the Ice
Joined
Dec 27, 2007
Based on early season performance so far from Kozuka, Oda, Takahashi and Hanyu, I can see the following realistic scenario playing out :

- Kozuka, Oda and Hanyu made GPF in which Oda won a Bronze medal = highest place Japanese from GPF (Oda has always done quite well in GP Series)

- At Japanese Nationals, Kozuka won the Nationals for the 3rd time while Takahashi finished 4th

- Hanyu has the highest ISU World ranking

So, how would they justify giving Takahashi a spot based on the set criteria?

To be honest, I have no idea. Until now, the selection process was much more "mechanical". For the Olympics 2006 the skaters collected points in international and national competitions and whoever collected the most got to go. For Vancouver, the spots were given to 1. the skater who placed the highest at the GPF podium (Oda), 2. the skater who won Nationals (Takahashi), 3. the skater who was on the National podium, with international standings taken into consideration (Kozuka had both the bronze medal and 3rd best World standing after Oda and Takahashi). The rules were always clearly stated and the role of the JSF was limited to reading the list of qualifiers aloud.

Right now only the winner of the Nats is sure to go, the rest will be hand-picked. It isn't clearly stated what JSF will value more - the highest PB of the season? The highest placement at nats? The highest World standing?

In the situation you described above, I think a lot would depend on the actual placement of the skaters at Nationals. If Kozuka won (for the 2nd time, actually, but it doesn't matter as far as the selection process is concerned), he'd get to go.
Then, let's say, Hanyu got silver, Oda - bronze, Takahashi was 4th, Machida 5th and Mura 6th.
According to the criteria posted above, 2nd spot would be selected between the silver medal at Japanese Nationals (Hanyu), the winner of the bronze medal at Japanese Nationals (Oda) and the skater who placed the highest on the podium at the Grand Prix final (Oda) -> Oda would have bronze at Nats and the GPF placement, so he'd get this spot.
3rd spot would be selected between the skater qualified via point 2 but was not chosen (Hanyu), 3 skaters who will have the highest World standing at the moment of the Japanese Nationals (Takahashi, Hanyu and Machida (at the moment)), 3 skaters with the highest ISU season best score (hard to tell - their seasons PB scores could be pretty close). I think in such scenario Hanyu would get to go since he would have point 2, high season standing (even if a bit lower than Takahashi's) and possibly one of the season's best scores going for him.

That's just my interpretation of the rules, though. Of course, I'm speculating purely about the interpretation of the rules, not on the skaters' actual placement at GP and Nats. I don't think anything can be predicted at this point.

The most depressing thing is, those skaters have dealt with injuries recently, from minor to quite serious. They know they have to be at their /absolute best/ for the entire season to make the team - and, in result, they might end up re-injuring themselves (or acquire brand new injuries). I think the worst case scenario would be if the Japanese Olympic team consisted simply of the last 3 skaters who can remain somewhat vertical without crutches and painkillers. :(
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I'm pretty sure Hanyu is a lock for the Olympic team. The Japanese fed would have to be crazy not to send him as he clearly has the best scoring potential of the men at this point, other than maybe Oda, but he hasn't been around much. Hanyu has had strong results at Worlds, Kozuka is recovering and Dai is hit or miss.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Right now only the winner of the Nats is sure to go, the rest will be hand-picked. It isn't clearly stated what JSF will value more - the highest PB of the season? The highest placement at nats? The highest World standing?

Anything other than the placements at Japanese nationals is a kind of hedge when their favorites failed to make the podium. Right now, Hanyu and Asada are such skaters, and Takahashi can expect some special treatments. Additional conditions like GPF results or world standings are only applicable when one of them fell off the podium. I think Hanyu and Asada will earn their spots as the national champions. Probably the only disturbing factor is Takahashi's placement.
 

wonderlen3000

Final Flight
Joined
Nov 8, 2008
I think Hanyu is a lock and the one with most potential for medal. On a good day, he can challenge fore gold and on a bad day, he can easily manage 3rd to 5th. Plus he is the only one that can match Fernandez technically. As much as i love Dai, i think his days are over. Most he can hope for a bronze if he is clean. He can no longer match Patrick, Jarvier or Hanyu technically and his PCS will only gives him one jump cushion at most. He can no longer do 3+3 consistently without getting < and his 4T is the least reliable of the top guys. I'm sure the federation will still sent him bc of sentimental reason and he brings in the most PR and cash.

Oda, we will have to see until after GPF and National. He shows promise, but that guy can never carry the momentum to the world or important meet. Lets hope he pace himself and peak for the big show down, not at GP events.

Kazuko, is getting better and hope he is fully heal after the injury. But he is still not getting the love from the judges, with Hanyu on the rise, we can pretty much expect his PCS will be low ball again and again.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
I think Hanyu is a lock and the one with most potential for medal. On a good day, he can challenge fore gold and on a bad day, he can easily manage 3rd to 5th. Plus he is the only one that can match Fernandez technically.

With three quads, Reynolds is probably the only one who can match Fernandez technically on paper (after all, he's the only top man other than Fernandez to attempt/have landed 3 quads). I'm still not sold on Hanyu's ability to land two quads and two 3As in the same program, but he's getting more consistent by the day, and his 3A consistency and GOE is an excellent way for him to stay in contention.
 

NMURA

Medalist
Joined
Jul 14, 2010
Hanyu's BV is a little higher than Fernandez.

Fernandez
4T 10.30
4S+3T 14.60
3A 8.50
*4S 11.55
*3Lz+2T 8.03
*3Lo 5.61
*3F+1Lo+3S 11.00
*3S 4.62
Total 74.21

Hanyu
4S 10.50
4T 10.30
3F 5.30
*3A+3T 13.86
*3A+2T 10.78
*3Lo 5.61
*3Lz+1Lo+3S 11.77
*3Lz 6.60
Total 74.72

Chan's is more than 6 points lower than Hanyu.
 

CanadianSkaterGuy

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 25, 2013
Right, I meant in terms of reliability in executing all their technical content, Fernandez is slightly more consistent at this point which give him an edge over Hanyu. Although Hanyu has an edge in points (note that Fernandez chooses to do a solo 3S instead of a 3Z or 3F at the end), I also consider 3 quads and a 3A to be greater than 2 quads and 2 3As, in terms of technical ability.
 
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