Right now, the only lock is Hanyu but Takahashi will be selected barring irredeemable disasters at Japanese nationals. His presence is necessary to divert media attentions and national expectations away from Hanyu. Oda, Kozuka and other guys can't do that job in the first place. The third spot should go to the the most promising #2 man after Sochi. Apparently Machida has taken some lead, and Mura is another candidate. Oda started out strongly as usual but probably runs out of steam by Japanese nationals. He ALWAYS makes stupid mistakes at major competitions. Even a couple of strong skates before nationals won't regain the federation's confidence. Kozuka has the least chance among the top six. There's a saying that Sato's #2 students tend to miss the Olympics.