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Thread: Is Skate Canada for Julia Lipnitskaya to win?

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    Is Skate Canada for Julia Lipnitskaya to win?

    There will be no Osmond, Leonova. She has already beaten Akiko, and Gracie starting slow and not so strong as I thought she would.

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    if she doesn't get underscored

    Leonova was a non factor
    Suzuki is a hit or miss
    Gold can get better PCS skating in SC
    Omsond is her biggest threat, who is a lock for podium regardless of how she skates

    to think this field would have been even tougher with Kim and Kiira on it

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    I really think SC is Julia's to lose. Even with Akiko and Gracie skating moderately well she should win if she lands her elements. She can easily pull 180+. Hopefully she handles the pressure better than her first GP season. I think Akiko, if anyone, will beat her. Osmond has had early season struggles with her jumps. Gold as well, but to a lesser extent. Part of me also thinks that Hicks can be a factor, if the others falter.

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    If Gracie lands her jumps she can beat Julia. Gracie has more speed better ice coverage bigger jumps and her spins are not bad either. I just am not impressed with Julia. Besides her flexibility nothing in her skating stands out. Average speed and average jumps that don't jump out at you. She is a tough competitor though and that's the advantage over someone like Gracie who is up and down and a bit nervous as a competitor.

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    Has Osmond skated in any early competitions? I don't recall seeing any video if she has...

    I wonder how she's faring in this "sophomore season"

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    Quote Originally Posted by TontoK View Post
    Has Osmond skated in any early competitions? I don't recall seeing any video if she has...

    I wonder how she's faring in this "sophomore season"
    Here's one of her early season competitions. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkB3_jvS6HA

    Clearly facing jitters with new programs, but hopefully will get it together. It's hard to say where skaters are at based on one competition (I mean, Japan Open is a pretty good indicator of how early season performances aren't exactly the best ones).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    If Gracie lands her jumps she can beat Julia. Gracie has more speed better ice coverage bigger jumps and her spins are not bad either. I just am not impressed with Julia. Besides her flexibility nothing in her skating stands out. Average speed and average jumps that don't jump out at you. She is a tough competitor though and that's the advantage over someone like Gracie who is up and down and a bit nervous as a competitor.
    I think Gracie can do it, but she'll need two clean programs to match Julia's technical content and she hasn't been capable of that. She should certainly medal though.

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    Right now, basing on the Finlandia results and on Gracie's performance in SLC, I would answer "yes": Julia has already beaten Suzuki (who will be one of the top skaters there), and her performances/scores have been better than both Gracie's and Courtney's (she's the closest, but Julia skated a clean SP when Hicks did not), and then there is Osmond, with her (probably) inflated PCS in Canada but an injuried foot, too... Basing on what we know, Julia is the gold favourite for now, but (even if her nerves are REALLY good)... the ice is slippery

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I think Gracie can do it, but she'll need two clean programs to match Julia's technical content and she hasn't been capable of that. She should certainly medal though.
    Why does she need two clean programs? She can afford to make one or two more mistakes than Lipnitskaya. Her technical content is on par with Lipnitskaya's. Her GOEs on non-spin elements will be higher. Her PCS will definitely be higher than Lipnitskaya since this will be her second senior season plus a good showing in Worlds.

    She has room to make more mistakes, just not many.

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    Gracie has a history of mistake-prone SPs. I'd just like to see her start the season with a clean SP for a change.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    If Gracie lands her jumps she can beat Julia. Gracie has more speed better ice coverage bigger jumps and her spins are not bad either. I just am not impressed with Julia. Besides her flexibility nothing in her skating stands out. Average speed and average jumps that don't jump out at you. She is a tough competitor though and that's the advantage over someone like Gracie who is up and down and a bit nervous as a competitor.
    You don't think Julia's spins stand out? Not meaning to pick at you or your general point, but if so you're the first person i've heard say that- even most of her haters say something like 'other than her spins everything sucks'

    If you don't think her spins are really good, what do you think she'd have to do to make them better? Honestly not meaning to pick at you- genuinely curious.

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    My biggest gripe with Julia is that it looks as if she has a magnet implanted in her hand that randomly impels her skate upwards towards the implant. This motion can occur at any time during her time on the ice, and IMO it detracts from her performance. Flexibility is important in gymnastics and it is nice to have in figure skating, but displaying it at every possible moment is too much of a good thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    You don't think Julia's spins stand out? Not meaning to pick at you or your general point, but if so you're the first person i've heard say that- even most of her haters say something like 'other than her spins everything sucks'

    If you don't think her spins are really good, what do you think she'd have to do to make them better? Honestly not meaning to pick at you- genuinely curious.
    "Besides her flexibility" is as silly as saying "Besides Lucinda Ruh's spins, nothing in her skating stands out". Julia, while prone to overusing her flexibility has wonderful spins, and very very difficult spin positions - particularly her Biellmann and an I spin that is an "I" in the truest form. Her "dislocated" spiral is a highlight in her programs as well. My issue with her is that her arms and artistry still need developing and her overall projection too. Her jumps could use more spring too. But it's totally being a hater when people say there's nothing that stands out. Especially when there are so many skaters in the top 10 at Worlds who don't really have anything that makes them particularly unique. In fact, it's remarkable that Lipnitskaia has such flexibility but still maintains the strength and snap to execute difficult combinations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McIce View Post
    Why does she need two clean programs? She can afford to make one or two more mistakes than Lipnitskaya. Her technical content is on par with Lipnitskaya's. Her GOEs on non-spin elements will be higher. Her PCS will definitely be higher than Lipnitskaya since this will be her second senior season plus a good showing in Worlds.

    She has room to make more mistakes, just not many.
    Lipnitskaya's programs a way better than Gold. This is Lipnitskaya's second GP season too. Last year she qualified for Grand Prix Final.

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    Quote Originally Posted by McIce View Post
    Why does she need two clean programs? She can afford to make one or two more mistakes than Lipnitskaya. Her technical content is on par with Lipnitskaya's. Her GOEs on non-spin elements will be higher. Her PCS will definitely be higher than Lipnitskaya since this will be her second senior season plus a good showing in Worlds.

    She has room to make more mistakes, just not many.
    I don't think she is at liberty to make 1 or 2 mistakes more than Lipnitskaya.

    Lipnitskaia puts 5 of her jumping passes in the 2nd half, which gives her about a 2-point BV advantage over Gold. Julia also tends to get higher GOE on her spins than Gold. Gold has a PCS advantage. They are both really close, so I wouldn't say Gold will win if she makes a mistake and Julia goes clean (unless it's a really minor mistake).

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