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Thread: Is Skate Canada for Julia Lipnitskaya to win?

  1. #16
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    The big question at SC for Amelie Lacoste is whether she can finish higher than Veronik Mallet. Veronik scored 159.67 at Nebelhorn to Amelie's 147.88 at the US Classic. Amelie and Veronik are the two "Senior" senior Canadian ladies vying for the second Olympic spot. Amelie needs to show Skate Canada that she still has the drive and determination to succeed. She isn't going to medal, but she has to have a much better showing than she did at SLC.

  2. #17
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't think she is at liberty to make 1 or 2 mistakes more than Lipnitskaya.

    Lipnitskaia puts 5 of her jumping passes in the 2nd half, which gives her about a 2-point BV advantage over Gold. Julia also tends to get higher GOE on her spins than Gold. Gold has a PCS advantage. They are both really close, so I wouldn't say Gold will win if she makes a mistake and Julia goes clean (unless it's a really minor mistake).
    This. I also suspect that if Julia can put some clean programs out there, the PCS gap between these two will be closing. Julia has improved a lot this year, while Gold, if anything, has regressed. Unless she's majorly reworked her programs Julia's LP will be better received than Gracie's IMO. One thing not mentioned though is that if Gold hits the jumps, and judges are fair, she will get better GOEs on them than Julia on hers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    There will be no Osmond, Leonova. She has already beaten Akiko, and Gracie starting slow and not so strong as I thought she would.
    Osmond has not withdrawn : http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2013/10/15/629732524

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    I think Skate Canada Int'l is wide open at this point. Osmond has merely toned down her content but if she skates clean SP, she will be in top 3.

    Russian girls get hyped all the time. So far, none of them prove to last longer than a season, if at that. There is a reason why Russia only has 2 spots in ladies for Sochi, same as Canada. Yet, if we were to listen to the hypes from years ago, you'd believe Russian girls would be going to Sochi as Worlds 1-2-3 by now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    This. I also suspect that if Julia can put some clean programs out there, the PCS gap between these two will be closing. Julia has improved a lot this year, while Gold, if anything, has regressed. Unless she's majorly reworked her programs Julia's LP will be better received than Gracie's IMO. One thing not mentioned though is that if Gold hits the jumps, and judges are fair, she will get better GOEs on them than Julia on hers.
    That's another thing; I would bet way more on Julia to put out a clean(er) performance than Gold. If both go clean though, Gold should theoretically beat Julia.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    This. I also suspect that if Julia can put some clean programs out there, the PCS gap between these two will be closing. Julia has improved a lot this year, while Gold, if anything, has regressed. Unless she's majorly reworked her programs Julia's LP will be better received than Gracie's IMO. One thing not mentioned though is that if Gold hits the jumps, and judges are fair, she will get better GOEs on them than Julia on hers.
    To be fair, Gracie was always the second best next to Julia. Its not a secret that she has won none competition against her. Golds best score was 125, while Julias - 124 at JW. She is a tough competitor who gets better with each year, while I cant say the same about Gold. That's why Ive created a thread about her being overhyped. She might get the bigger goe on her jumps, IF she jumps them and wont look rusty

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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    To be fair, Gracie was always the second best next to Julia. Its not a secret that she has won none competition against her. Golds best score was 125, while Julias - 124 at JW. She is a tough competitor who gets better with each year, while I cant say the same about Gold. That's why Ive created a thread about her being overhyped. She might get the bigger goe on her jumps, IF she jumps them and wont look rusty
    Julia actually had a less than ideal season last year with quite a few inconsistencies. I mean, she still made the GPF and her jumps are more reliable, but she still periodically made errors. Gold was also up and down, but Gold gets much better PCS than Julia (which she should).

    Overhyped is a pretty silly thing to suggest. Gold came 6th in her first Worlds which is pretty decent. I mean, at best, she would have come 4th.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Julia actually had a less than ideal season last year with quite a few inconsistencies. I mean, she still made the GPF and her jumps are more reliable, but she still periodically made errors. Gold was also up and down, but Gold gets much better PCS than Julia (which she should).

    Overhyped is a pretty silly thing to suggest. Gold came 6th in her first Worlds which is pretty decent. I mean, at best, she would have come 4th.
    Where was Gold at the age of 14? Nowhere. Julia had an injury, concussion, growth spurt last year. Golds pcs is 60-61. Julias - 59. Not such a big difference...

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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    The big question at SC for Amelie Lacoste is whether she can finish higher than Veronik Mallet. Veronik scored 159.67 at Nebelhorn to Amelie's 147.88 at the US Classic. Amelie and Veronik are the two "Senior" senior Canadian ladies vying for the second Olympic spot. Amelie needs to show Skate Canada that she still has the drive and determination to succeed. She isn't going to medal, but she has to have a much better showing than she did at SLC.
    I think Mallet stands a good chance of placing higher. She certainly had a solid showing at Nebelhorn with a PB total that was higher than Lacoste in her 2010 bronze at Skate Canada (and obviously Lacoste has regressed since then).

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by koatcue View Post
    To be fair, Gracie was always the second best next to Julia. Its not a secret that she has won none competition against her. Golds best score was 125, while Julias - 124 at JW. She is a tough competitor who gets better with each year, while I cant say the same about Gold. That's why Ive created a thread about her being overhyped. She might get the bigger goe on her jumps, IF she jumps them and wont look rusty
    Gracie has competed against Julia exactly one time and that was in early 2012 as a unproven inexperienced Junior. Things have changed since then. Last season for instance if they both skated clean Gracie would have won. By the end of the season Gracie was one of the top Senior Ladies in the world.

  11. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jammers View Post
    Gracie has competed against Julia exactly one time and that was in early 2012 as a unproven inexperienced Junior. Things have changed since then. Last season for instance if they both skated clean Gracie would have won. By the end of the season Gracie was one of the top Senior Ladies in the world.
    If both of them skated clean...We'll never know. No one was clean last year. Julia's score would have been huge if she had a clean skate...And Gold is still unproven this year. She is unstable. Not Like Sotnikova, but still. And Julia's pcs, believe me, will rise this year if she goes on like this She is a much better competitor than her. That's a fact.

  12. #27
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    It's easy to be a confident competitor at 14-15. As the years go on, growth and maturity make competition tougher and take a heavy toll on confidence. Ask Liza Tuk or Adelina Sot----or Mao Asada.

  13. #28
    Spiral Lover tulosai's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by chuckm View Post
    It's easy to be a confident competitor at 14-15. As the years go on, growth and maturity make competition tougher and take a heavy toll on confidence. Ask Liza Tuk or Adelina Sot----or Mao Asada.
    This generalization gets thrown around a lot. It's untrue and I don't like it. It assumes that:

    1. Everyone has a crisis of confidence when they turn 16. Not true. Where was Michelle Kwan's crisis of confidence?
    2. That it is actually a crisis of confidence, not puberty (of course, they can go together).

    While it is true that younger girls are usually more 'fearless' than women, I refuse to buy into the idea that Julia L is bound to have a meltdown now that she's 15, 16, 17- pick a year. Some people are good, strong willed competitors, puberty or no (see Kwan, Kim, Flatt others I am too lazy to look back in my mind and think of).

    Another issue though is we tend to equate 'can land all the jumps' with confidence. Some people who often blow jumps do so for reasons wholly unrelated to confidence ( I'd argue Mao is in that camp as is Flatt at the current moment).

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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    This generalization gets thrown around a lot. It's untrue and I don't like it. It assumes that:

    1. Everyone has a crisis of confidence when they turn 16. Not true. Where was Michelle Kwan's crisis of confidence?
    She had one at 17. The 1996-97 season, Michelle Kwan crashed at the U.S. Nationals, went on to lose Champion Series Final, fell at the Worlds SP and finish 2nd there.


    2. That it is actually a crisis of confidence, not puberty (of course, they can go together).
    Yes, even Michelle Kwan had one as she transitioned from a girl to a woman. Virtually all girls went through the same phase. Heck, even Yu Na Kim experienced similar symptoms too when she first moved to Canada. She was not happy with her sport and the injuries took a psychological toll on her. Is it a surprise many female Olympic Champions turned pro before they become adults, namely Baiul and Lipinski? No, absolutely not. There is also a reason why female gymnasts have age controversies at the Olympics.

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    It took Irina Slutskaya years to get over her growth spurt and become a champion again. Ditto for Miki Ando. Caroline Zhang never got the magic back, and Mirai Nagasu tries and tries, but hasn't managed to get past her growth spurt.

    Luckily for Gracie Gold, she hit her growth spurt before she became a household name.

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