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Thread: Nate Silver-ing Skate America: MEN

  1. #1
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    Nate Silver-ing Skate America: MEN

    More geekery.

    Base value:
    Tatsuki: 42.70
    Alexander: 42.35
    Adam: 42.29
    Max: 40.55
    Artur: 40.20
    Takahiko: 38.40
    Jason: 38.10
    Daisuke: 37.68

    GOE:
    Tatsuki: 7.38
    Jason: 6.75
    Adam: 0.94
    Max: 0.82
    Takahiko: -0.25
    Alexander: -1.06
    Daisuke: -1.84
    Artur: -2.96

    Jumps:
    Tatsuki: 34.11
    Max: 29.26
    Alexander: 27.59
    Jason 27.14
    Adam: 26.89
    Artur: 23.31
    Takahiko: 23.15
    Daisuke: 19.48

    Combo:

    Tatsuki: 16.30 (4T-3T)
    Alexander: 10.80 (3Z-3T)
    Adam: 11.04 (3F-3Tx)
    Max: 10.70 (3Z-3T)
    Jason: 9.30 (3F-3T)
    Daisuke: 6.93 (3Z-2T)
    Artur: 6.80 (3Z-3T<)
    Takahiko: 4.50 (3Z+COMBO)

    Triple Axel
    Tatsuki: 10.21
    Takahiko: 10.21
    Max: 11.06
    Jason: 9.64
    Alexander: 9.49
    Artur: 9.21
    Adam: 8.92
    Daisuke: 8.35

    Quad/Triple single jump
    Takahiko: 8.44 (4T)
    Jason: 8.2 (3Zx)
    Tatsuki: 7.50 (3Z)
    Max: 7.50 (4S)
    Alexander: 7.30 (4T)
    Artur: 7.30 (4T)
    Adam: 6.93 (4Z<)
    Daisuke: 4.2 (4T<)

    Non-jumps
    Jason: 17.71
    Daisuke: 16.36
    Adam: 16.34
    Tatsuki: 15.97
    Takahiko: 15.00
    Alexander: 13.70
    Artur: 13.93
    Max: 12.11


    1.) Tatsuki and Jason really out-GOEed the rest of the competition. It's as Mathman said. The guy who did the program with a quad clean is in first and the guy without the quad but skated clean is second. But to add to Mathman's statement, the man w/o a quad who skated a clean AND well-executed program is in second, while the man w/ the quad who skated a clean AND well-executed program in in first.

    2.) The stats confirm what people commented. Without a clean quad (he still did a clean combo/3A), Max will not contend. His + GOE is not very high outside the jumps and you lose a few levels and you are in trouble.

    3.) Daisuke is still pretty special w/o the jumps. However he needs them. Getting the highest PCS (42+) could not make up for what is basically 7+ gap in TES. He's in 5th place. He can definitely move up, but he will, at a minimum need to land a few more jumps cleanly.

  2. #2
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    Interesting that the only place Artur is at the bottom of the heap is GOE.

  3. #3
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    Free Skate Analysis

    Base Value
    Max: 91.51
    Tatsuki: 80.66
    Adam: 72.47
    Alexander: 70.93
    Artur: 69.15
    Daisuke: 68.90
    Takahiko: 67.19
    Jason: 65.57

    GOE
    Tatsuki: 10.18
    Adam: 6.23
    Takahiko: 5.09
    Takahashi: 3.50
    Jason: 3.12
    Max: -1.04
    Artur: -1.20
    Alexander: -3.90

    Jumps:
    Max: 73.08
    Tatsuki: 72.64
    Adam: 59.47
    Artur: 59.01
    Takahiko: 53.10
    Daisuke: 52.79
    Alexander: 51.10
    Jason: 47.96

    Non-jump elements:
    Jason: 20.73 (CCSp3/CCoSp3/StSq4/FCCoSp4)
    Adam: 20.43 (FCCoSp3/CCSp4/StSq4/CCoSp4)
    Daisuke: 19.61 (StSq4/FCSSp4/FCCoSp2/CCoSp3)
    Takahiko: 19.18 (CCoSp4/StSp4/FSSp4/FCCoSp3)
    Tatsuki: 18.20 (FSSp4/StSq3/CCoSp2/CCoSp4)
    Max: 17.39 (FCCoSp4/StSq3/FCSSp3/CCoSp4)
    Alexander: 15.93 (FCCoSp4/StSq3/CCoSp2/FSSp4)
    Artur: 11.34 (FCSp4/StSq2/CSSp1/CCoSp3)

    Some comments:

    1.) Max's BV came through for him. The errors on his early quads were costly from a +GOE standpoint, but he can stand to improve the GOE of his jumps in general, according to the protocals. Max's levels in the FS were much better for his spins and steps.
    2.) Tatsuki was the +GOE winner today with an impressive 10 extra points. His big +GOE point getters were both his 3A-3T (1.86/2.00) and his choreographic sequence (1.10). His 3A-3T, which earned 14.46 points, was the biggest scoring element of the night.
    3.) Adam did quite well on the GOE front as well. Besides the -GOE on his lutz, he scored +GOE on the rest of his elements. Big GOE getters was his 3Lo (+1.2), step sequence (1.50) and Rippon Lutz (+1.2)
    4.) W/o a quad, Jason really needed to be squeaky clean on the rest of his jumps. Having one less 3A really took a hit on his base value. His non-jump elements were the highest of the field even though he lost levels on two spins (based on the SP, we know he can get level 4s on everything). The encouraging thing is that he did not get any edge calls on his Lutz, which he did early last season.
    5.) Overall, a higher level of scoring here. The top five here all scored higher in the FS than Hanyu, who placed third in the segment last year. (148.67) And Jason, in 5th scored higher than 4th place finisher.

  4. #4
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    Looking at that list and still pissed that Artur got put behind Majorov...

    Not hard to see where Jason lost out :/ They may not want to rush the quad for him, but...he's basically going to have to have a perfect skate every single time to even compete. That's just as hard!

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