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Thread: Nate Silver-ing Skate America: PAIRS

  1. #1
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Nate Silver-ing Skate America: PAIRS

    Short program

    BASE VALUE
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 34.20
    Denney/Coughlin: 33.00
    Berton/Hotarek: 33.00
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 32.60
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 32.10
    Stolbova/Klimov: 30.60
    Purdy/Marinaro: 30.40
    Castelli/Shnapir: 29.30

    GOE
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 10.79
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 6.99
    Castelli/Shnapir: 5.12
    Stolbova/Klimov: 4.61
    Berton/Hotarek: 1.76
    Denney/Coughlin: 1.60
    Zhang/Bartholomay: -0.39
    Purdy/Marinaro: -4.40

    SBS Jumps
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 5.50 (3T)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 5.2 (3T)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 5.1 (3T)
    Denney/Coughlin: 4.6 (3T)
    Berton/Hotarek: 2.9 (3T)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 2.00 (3T)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 1.10 (3T<)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 0.95 (2S)

    Throw
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 7.1 (3Lo)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 6.3 (3F)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 6.3 (3S)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 5.8 (3Lo)
    Berton/Hotarek: 5.6 (3Lo)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 5.5 (3Z)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 3.70 (3Lo)
    Denney/Coughlin: 2.9 (3Lo)

    Twist
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 8.30 (3Tw4)
    Denney/Coughlin: 6.9 (3Tw3)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 6.5 (3Tw2)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 6.4 (3tw2)
    Berton/Hotarek: 5.5 (3Tw1)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 5.5 (3Tw1)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 3.97 (2Tw3)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 3.80 (3Tw1)

    Lifts:
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 8.6 (5RLi4)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 7.9 (5Ali4)
    Berton/Hotarek: 7.70 (5RLi4)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 7.60 (SAli4)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 7.40 (5Bli4)
    Denney/Coughlin: 7.4 (SAli4)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 7.4 (5Rli4)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 6.7 (5Ali4)

    Death Spiral
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 4.70 (BiDS4)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 3.9 (BiDs3)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 3.8 (BiDs3)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 3.8 (BiDs3)
    Berton/Hotarek: 3.6 (BiDS4)
    Denney/Coughlin: 3.5 (BiDs3)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 3.4 (BiDS3)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 2.2 (BiDSB)

    Step Sequence
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 5.5 (StSq4)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 5.1 (StSq4)
    Berton/Hotarek: 4.6 (StSq4)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 4.5 (StSq4)
    Denney/Coughlin: 4.3 (StSq4)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 4.01 (StSq3)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 4.00 (StSq4)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 3.37 (StSq3)

    Spin
    Volosozhar/Trankov: 5.29 (PCoSp4)
    Moore-Towers/Moscovitch: 5.29 (PCoSp4)
    Denney/Coughlin: 5.00 (PCoSp4)
    Stolbova/Klimov: 4.93 (PCoSp4)
    Berton/Hotarek: 4.86 (PCoSp4)
    Castelli/Shnapir: 4.86 (PCoSp4)
    Purdy/Marinaro: 4.50 (PCoSp4)
    Zhang/Bartholomay: 4.14 (PCoSp3)

    Comments:
    1.) Volosozhar/Trankov, clearly a class of their own. There was only ONE element (pair spin) where they were even matched. The amount of +GOE is unreal. 10 points. Let's consider that for a moment. That is like doing nearly two more SBS 3Ts with +GOE.
    2.) For of those you wondering why it's so close in places 3-6, one only has to look at the individual element. Each of the teams in those places had a costly element. For Stolbova/Kilmov, it was the lack of a 3Twist. For Berton/Hortek, it was the error on the SBS jumps, as for Castelli/Shnapir. And for Denny/Coughlin, it was the mistake on the throw jump. And in the inverse, each showed a clear standout element as well. Denny/Coughlin had the twist/spin, Castelli/Shnapir and Stolbova/Klimov had great throw, C/S also had a great death spiral, Berton/Hotarek had a great lift. The fight for bronze is not over.
    3.) As for the two U.S. Champions, it was interesting to see how relatively close they are. Denney/Coughlin won on base value, but Castelli/Shnapir blew them away in execution with a high GOE. Castelli/Shnapir had a better lift, throw, death spiral and step sequence while Denney/Coughlin had the edge on SBS jumps, twist and spin.
    4.) Moore-Towers./Moscovitch was not always 2nd individual elements, but they did solid enough on all them (plus high PCS) to easily be in 2nd.

  2. #2
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    Thanks so much, Mrs. P!

    I'm excited about the Canadians, and it's great to look forward to seeing V/T shine in the LP.

  3. #3
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Nate Silver-ing Skate America: PARIS
    Who knew Skam was in Paris!

    (I fixed it for you, though)

  4. #4
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    Thanks again for doing this!

    C/S have really stepped it up a notch in the SP this season. They have beaten D&C in it twice. However, their weakness has been the LP. And SBS jumps.

  5. #5
    skating philosopher Mrs. P's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    Who knew Skam was in Paris!

    (I fixed it for you, though)
    Opps. Thanks! STUPID TYPOS

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