Who can pack their bags for Sochi Now?

CanadianSkaterGuy · Oct 23, 2013

I assume you would add S/S to the German list.

And I'm not sure if Joshi or Victoria will make it (though Victoria is more likely)

pangtongfan · Oct 23, 2013

drivingmissdaisy said:
I like your list, but I would add Plushenko, if he is healthy enough to go. He is a legend of the sport and an Olympics in Russia will give him a fitting farewell to his amateur career.

Well in his case being too injured to skate is atleast 55% likely. Of course he is a lock if he is able to.

CanadianSkaterGuy · Oct 23, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Well in his case being too injured to skate is atleast 55% likely. Of course he is a lock if he is able to.

Hah, I'm not sure where you get your percentage from, but okay. He's a sure bet if he's healthy, but healthy doesn't equal clean. I just hope that he earns his Olympic spot instead of being the de facto entry just because of who he is (as I would hope for any athlete being sent to Sochi). I would hate for him to be outskated at Russian nationals but be held up on PCS and selected over somebody more deserving.

pangtongfan · Oct 23, 2013

I came up with it based on the fact he hasnt competed outside of Russian Nationals or Europeans the last 2 seasons, and withdrew from atleast 2 other planned internationals (including 1 Worlds). He has done roughly only half the internationals he was supposed to be (2 out of 4 or 5), has had multiple surgeries, and is over 30. Based on that giving him only 40-45% chance to be able to skate in Sochi physically seems about right.

As for being gifted the spot no matter what if he can skate being unfair, well the other Russian men havent shown anything in the last year or even two years to indicate they would even deserve to beat a faulty Plushenko out of an Olympic spot. Maybe that will change this year. I hope Voronov gets it personally and I think it was he, not Menshov, who was screwed out of going to Worlds last year; and he was totally screwed out of a spot on the 2010 team.

blue_idealist · Oct 24, 2013

pangtongfan said:
Korea- Yu Na Kim

Japan- Mao Asada, Yuzura Hanyu, Reed & Reed

Spain- Javier Fernandez, Hurtado & Diaz

United States- Meryl Davis & Charlie White, Ashley Wagner

Canada- Patrick Chan, Katlyn Osmond, Duhamel & Radford, Moore-Towers & Moscovitch, Virtue & Moir, Weaver & Poje, Kevin Reynolds

Russia- Bobrova & Soloviev, Volosozhar & Trankov, Barazova & Larionov, Ilnykh & Katsalapov

Kazaghstan- Denis Ten

Italy- Cappellini & Lanotte, Caroline Kostner, Valentina Marchei (finally)

China- Li Zizun, Pang & Tong

France- Mae Berenice Meite, James & Cipres, Pechalat & Bourzat

Georgia- Elene Gedevanishvili

Italy- Carolina Kostner, Berton & Hotarek

Czech- Michael Brezina

Britian- Kemp & King, Coomes & Buckland

Germany- Zhiganshina & Gazsi, Savchenko & Szolkowy

Australia- Brooklee Han, O Brien & Merriman, Brendan Kerry

Absolutely no way any of these skaters are not at the Olympics barring an enormous injury. There were many I consider extremely likely but not quite the mortal lock to be added to these lists.

Z/G were beaten by teammates Kolbe/Caruso recently, and IIRC Germany only has one Olympic spot for dance..

ciocio · Oct 24, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I came up with it based on the fact he hasnt competed outside of Russian Nationals or Europeans the last 2 seasons, and withdrew from atleast 2 other planned internationals (including 1 Worlds). He has done roughly only half the internationals he was supposed to be (2 out of 4 or 5), has had multiple surgeries, and is over 30. Based on that giving him only 40-45% chance to be able to skate in Sochi physically seems about right.

As for being gifted the spot no matter what if he can skate being unfair, well the other Russian men havent shown anything in the last year or even two years to indicate they would even deserve to beat a faulty Plushenko out of an Olympic spot. Maybe that will change this year. I hope Voronov gets it personally and I think it was he, not Menshov, who was screwed out of going to Worlds last year; and he was totally screwed out of a spot on the 2010 team.

CanadianSkaterGuy said:
Hah, I'm not sure where you get your percentage from, but okay. He's a sure bet if he's healthy, but healthy doesn't equal clean. I just hope that he earns his Olympic spot instead of being the de facto entry just because of who he is (as I would hope for any athlete being sent to Sochi). I would hate for him to be outskated at Russian nationals but be held up on PCS and selected over somebody more deserving.

The selection for Sochi will be based on the results at Russian Nationals and Euros, as always. Nobody will send him if he does not win RN and does not have good results in international competitions because it is clear that his health does not allow him to reach the full potential. Plushenko clearly said that if he is not prepared for the Olympics (to skate 4 clean programs) he won´t go. In this case, Voronov will probably be screwed again and they will send Kovtun, as they did last year. :disapp:
But if Plushenko´s health has improved miraculously after the surgery, well, he can pack his bags right now. Actually, he can pack anyway because his parents-in-law live in Sochi.

emdee · Oct 24, 2013

Jammers said:
Not sure about Osmond. She looked totally out of competition shape earlier in the summer when she competed.

She had an injury and is now on the road to recovery.
There are still over 3 months to go to the Olys.

hohoho · Oct 24, 2013

emdee said:
She had an injury and is now on the road to recovery.
There are still over 3 months to go to the Olys.

watching her practice online this morning she looks in excellent shape and very solid.

dorispulaski · Oct 24, 2013

blue_idealist said:
Z/G were beaten by teammates Kolbe/Caruso recently, and IIRC Germany only has one Olympic spot for dance..

Z&G finished 10th at last year's worlds, which AFAIR means 2 German dance spots at Sochi. One of those will be Z&G, I think.

kovarkovaelegant · Oct 24, 2013

Chock & Bates can. I can already confidently say there is no way they are missing the U.S Olympic team. Hubbel & Donohue, Shibutanis, and maybe 1 or 2 other teams are fighting for that 3rd spot.

Although neither are great and aren't big federation favorites right now, I don't see who the French can send other than Joubert and Amodio. Is there even another good French male skater who still skates.

Takahashi and her new partner are the only Japanese pairs team so if Japan has a spot in the Games which I am not sure of, they would go.

LRK · Oct 24, 2013

kovarkovaelegant said:
Chock & Bates can. I can already confidently say there is no way they are missing the U.S Olympic team. Hubbel & Donohue, Shibutanis, and maybe 1 or 2 other teams are fighting for that 3rd spot.

Although neither are great and aren't big federation favorites right now, I don't see who the French can send other than Joubert and Amodio. Is there even another good French male skater who still skates.

Takahashi and her new partner are the only Japanese pairs team so if Japan has a spot in the Games which I am not sure of, they would go.

I think they can skate in the team event for Japan, regardless?

dorispulaski · Oct 24, 2013

Chafik Besseghier beat Amodio in the SP at French Masters. Then he injured his foot/ankle in the LP warmup. But he might challenge Joubert & Amodio, if they keep skating like crap all season.

blue_idealist · Oct 25, 2013

dorispulaski said:
Z&G finished 10th at last year's worlds, which AFAIR means 2 German dance spots at Sochi. One of those will be Z&G, I think.

Oh, ok.

Yeah, it'll be Z/G and K/C 'cause I can't see Koch/Nuchtern beating either of them.

Who can pack their bags for Sochi Now?

CanadianSkaterGuy

pangtongfan

Match Penalty

CanadianSkaterGuy

pangtongfan

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blue_idealist

ciocio

emdee

hohoho

dorispulaski

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kovarkovaelegant

LRK

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blue_idealist

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