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Thread: What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title?

  1. #16
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    Recent article about S&S in the german press:
    http://www.t-online.de/sport/winters...n-sotschi.html

    Steuer admits the performance of V&T at Skate America was perfect and technically at the highest level he has ever seen. Yet he thinks Aliona and Robin are stronger in terms of the difficulty they master.

    Robin claims they have 2 best programs of their career this season, with new spins, new lifts and the throw triple axel.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by kovarkovaelegant View Post
    At last years Worlds S&S barely beat out the Canadian team with comparable mistakes. The judges view them as about equal to the Canadian team right now. The Canadian team would never beat V&T with only the 2 falls pangtongfan referred to, so neither would S&S.
    Actually, S/S *still* beat the Canadians even with way more significant errors. That shows that S/S is still way ahead of the Canadians. I kind of feel like they'll get the same treatment though in Sochi. As in, if V/T perform like the Germans in Worlds 2013, and if the Germans go clean like the Canadians in Worlds 2013, V/T will still be placed ahead.

    However, the Olympics rewards clean skates.

    Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?

  3. #18
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    Lets be honest. Robin and Aliona had big tricks. I have not seen their programs this year. Are they injured? There you have it. The Russians have the classic line-or Tat does. She is a stunning classic Russian pair skater. Him-not so grand. But to think that they will lose on home turf-that is Russia's only gold in FS and they owned pairs until A Canadian team and a Chinese team, both excellent, finally got their due. Shen and Zhao had to wait their turn. This is a fait accompli unless there is a big fall and SS are well and clean.
    eta- can someone link their sp and lp? Aliona/Robin...ty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Actually, S/S *still* beat the Canadians even with way more significant errors. That shows that S/S is still way ahead of the Canadians. I kind of feel like they'll get the same treatment though in Sochi. As in, if V/T perform like the Germans in Worlds 2013, and if the Germans go clean like the Canadians in Worlds 2013, V/T will still be placed ahead.

    However, the Olympics rewards clean skates.

    Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?
    Under 6.0 you were right, but IJS CoP is a different ballgame. How about all the Chan falls and wins at worlds?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?
    I dont think V&T will fall twice at the Olympics, but if they do yes I think they would win, even if the other pairs went clean. The only pair who might be able to beat them with 2 falls would be S&S, and that would require them skating cleanly which is hugely unlikely. Teams like Duhamel & Radford, Barazova & Larionov, old Pang & Tong, V&T could comfortably beat with atleast 2 falls and probably more, no problem at all.

    Chan as just on example has won many events with more than 2 falls, and sometimes even when his competitors performed well. While the World is Chanflation is well known in general as skateluvr said COP is a whole other ball game. V&T being on home ice will give them some extra cushion to what they otherwise would have had.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    Do poeple honestly think that V/T will be given gold (or any pairs team for that matter) if they have 2 falls? Especially if the other teams all go clean?
    They are Patrick Chan of pairs skating. They had a disastrous SP in Nice and still almost won the entire thing despite Aliona and Robin doing great in both portions. They are a lock for the gold unless the arena's roof caves in crashing down on their heads.

    I would ask a different question: do clean V/T REALLY deserve to be beating clean S/S? (I mean, I do realize S/S have been having problems being clean for a while now, but nevertheless, I think clean V/T will always win over clean S/S.)

    My answer would be no. I really don't see where V/T are so vastly superior. Their lifts are usually shaky or slow. Their twist is amazing, but their throws are 3sal and 3loop versus S/S's 3flip and 3axel. Both teams have amazing artistry, different, but equally great. I would say S/S's pair spin is also better, while V/T's twist is definitely better.

    So where is it that V/T are so much better than everyone else, cause I honestly don't see it? They are great - but not world record breaking great to me. Especially with that hideous JCS FP.

    I'll put my heart and soul out there to support and cheer for Aliona and Robin. I want them to be clean and I want them to win that OGM so badly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SimplyLex View Post
    They are Patrick Chan of pairs skating. They had a disastrous SP in Nice and still almost won the entire thing despite Aliona and Robin doing great in both portions. They are a lock for the gold unless the arena's roof caves in crashing down on their heads.
    Actually S&S had mistakes in both programs at that event. V&T did have a poor short, but they atleast had a perfect long which S&S did not have in either program. The close result made sense. At this point in time the judges saw the two teams as very close. At that seasons Grand Prix final V&T actually had 2 clean programs and lost to S&S who had a mistake in their SP.

    I would ask a different question: do clean V/T REALLY deserve to be beating clean S/S? (I mean, I do realize S/S have been having problems being clean for a while now, but nevertheless, I think clean V/T will always win over clean S/S.)
    At this point I would say yes. V&T have superior technical elements right now. In their first couple seasons they landed their throws low and S&S had stronger throw. Now V&T are landing their throws stronger and they are just as strong as the Germans, but they have a way better twist, better unsion on their jumps, stronger spins. Artistically V&T dont have capativating programs I agree, but S&S's programs last year were just plain bad, and from what I have heard this year will be no different. If both are clean V&T should win based on superior TES. PCS not too much difference between the two either way really. S&S are past their prime, and V&T who unlike S&S are coming into their own and getting better are simply a superior pair right now, even if the judging were fair and S&S were more consistent.


    I mentioned this on another thread btw but S&S have had far more gifts and were far more the judges pets at one point in time than V&T are now. V&T have never had a win as controversial as S&S at the 2008 Worlds and 2011 Europeans for example. The 2008 Worlds was especialy embarassing.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    At this point I would say yes. V&T have superior technical elements right now. In their first couple seasons they landed their throws low and S&S had stronger throw. Now V&T are landing their throws stronger and they are just as strong as the Germans, but they have a way better twist, better unsion on their jumps, stronger spins. Artistically V&T dont have capativating programs I agree, but S&S's programs last year were just plain bad, and from what I have heard this year will be no different. If both are clean V&T should win based on superior TES. PCS not too much difference between the two either way really. S&S are past their prime, and V&T who unlike S&S are coming into their own and getting better are simply a superior pair right now, even if the judging were fair and S&S were more consistent.
    But what is the point of figure skating? landing easier elements pretty or landing harder elements a little shaky? (come to think of it, it looks a lot like the Lysacek vs. Plushenko issue) I think that's the case here. For me it's like, many skaters can land a 3sal perfectly, but how many of them can land a 3a, even of a little worse quality? I think it's the question about whether the skaters should go for harder elements (S/S) or just focus on executing the easier ones perfectly (V/T). I must say I don't have an answer to this, just my personal preference - I simply love fighters and those who risk and push themselves more.

    Besides, I still don't see that superior technique of V/T in some elements. As I said, their lifts often look like he's gonna drop her. Their pair spin is plain awful (to my untrained eye, that is). their SBS spins are great, I do agree on that and their twist is out of this world. But what bothers me the most is the "easy" throws.

    Also, I don't know, but V/T somehow make me tired when I watch them. Like everything was so hard and tiring (which I am sure is the case, but it shouldn't show). With S/S I do not have that impression.

    I do realize S/S aren't perfect and were held up several times in the past. I just wish they at least had a chance for that gold, which they don't, unless V/T bomb big time.

  9. #24
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    V&T have a very small advantage on the side-by-side jumps. They have the 3Sal, yes, but their 3Toe-2Toe combo with worth less than S&S's 3Toe-3Toe sequence. If both teams execute the elements the best they can, then it's only like a .4 advantage for V&T.

    The only other element that V&T does better than S&S is the twist, which gives them an extra .7 points (+3 GOE vs +2 GOE).

    S&S do the pair spin a little better than V&T - Aliona has that great sit spin position with her leg in full I position. Their side-by-side spin is equally as equal to V&T good, at their best (2011 Worlds). On the lifts S&S are definitely just as capable as V&T, if not slightly moreso; Aliona can potentially hit a better position in one of the lifts than Tatiana is capable of.

    S&S have an advantage on the throws if they can deliver them. 3Flip and 3Axel is worth more than 3Sal and 3Loop.

    S&S should also definitely have an advantage on the ChSq - Aliona and Robin both have better extensions than Tatiana and Max.

    End result - V&T should lose the technical mark if S&S skate like they did at 2011 Worlds, but with a throw 3Axel at the end of the program instead of a 3Sal. V&T should also lose the PCS, but this is where unfair judging will come into play and the reason why S&S sadly have a very low chance of actually winning.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by SimplyLex View Post
    They are Patrick Chan of pairs skating.
    They are not. Chan actually has difficult programs, so when he skates them well, he deserves good marks. V/T's programs are noticeably less difficult than some of the other top pairs' both in terms of elements and in terms of overall program construction, but you won't know it from the marks. Their PCS is higher than anyone in the men's discipline at the moment.

    They had a disastrous SP in Nice and still almost won the entire thing despite Aliona and Robin doing great in both portions. They are a lock for the gold unless the arena's roof caves in crashing down on their heads.
    Aliona and Robin did not skate particularly well in the LP 2012 Worlds, so I have no problem with that one ending up a close call.

    To answer the question, S/S can only win if V/T have serious errors and/or if V/T won't compete.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    The only other element that V&T does better than S&S is the twist, which gives them an extra .7 points (+3 GOE vs +2 GOE).
    S&S might get +2s in GOE on the triple twist but they should not. The only reason they do is they are S&S, 4 time World Champions. Their triple twist is just an average element at best, which many teams can do better, and deserves 0s in GOE most times.

  12. #27
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    I always thought Sand S were doing more difficult moves. I think judges love Tatiana's classic balletic style. I always like the Russian team, and I think it is pretty much a lock. If they skate and score like at SA, Robin and Aliona will likely have silver. I think if they fall, then maybe they concede to a clean S/S. I feel like the Olympic host country always picks up a meal somewhere. And the ISU judges sometimes seem to favor the Russians. Can someone recall the names please for this old brain of the team from Russia with the Horrid Aboriginal number? They won the bronze, yes?

    I was like, oh well, Russian fed is indeed very powerful, and they were all so mad about Evgeni's silver despite it being a fair result. I don't recall who came in fourth, but I remember being amazed at the hideous costume as pieces fell to the ice. They offended a whole bunch of people and still won bronze. If they were from Mexico or ? some place with no federation, they should be placed 10th. So we must realize that graciousness to Host country is a given.

    I think that Yuna and V/T are already tasting their gold medals.

  13. #28
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    S&S might get +2s in GOE on the triple twist but they should not. The only reason they do is they are S&S, 4 time World Champions. Their triple twist is just an average element at best, which many teams can do better, and deserves 0s in GOE most times.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esJg7iOwvr4&t=2m40s

    Please.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by alopatra View Post
    Recent article about S&S in the german press:
    http://www.t-online.de/sport/winters...n-sotschi.html

    Steuer admits the performance of V&T at Skate America was perfect and technically at the highest level he has ever seen. Yet he thinks Aliona and Robin are stronger in terms of the difficulty they master.

    Robin claims they have 2 best programs of their career this season, with new spins, new lifts and the throw triple axel.
    I believe the Germans have higher technical content - whether they execute it is another issue. But really people we hear all this "pr" talk all the time though Ssquared could doit. How often do we hear its Cesario or Gold or Wagner or flatt will come back or Nagtasu will regain or whatever a lot is talk and there are only so many medals. Rarely are you going to say even if injured you are finished your getting weaker as a skater etc.

  15. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    V&T have a very small advantage on the side-by-side jumps. They have the 3Sal, yes, but their 3Toe-2Toe combo with worth less than S&S's 3Toe-3Toe sequence. If both teams execute the elements the best they can, then it's only like a .4 advantage for V&T.

    The only other element that V&T does better than S&S is the twist, which gives them an extra .7 points (+3 GOE vs +2 GOE).

    S&S do the pair spin a little better than V&T - Aliona has that great sit spin position with her leg in full I position. Their side-by-side spin is equally as equal to V&T good, at their best (2011 Worlds). On the lifts S&S are definitely just as capable as V&T, if not slightly moreso; Aliona can potentially hit a better position in one of the lifts than Tatiana is capable of.

    S&S have an advantage on the throws if they can deliver them. 3Flip and 3Axel is worth more than 3Sal and 3Loop.

    S&S should also definitely have an advantage on the ChSq - Aliona and Robin both have better extensions than Tatiana and Max.

    End result - V&T should lose the technical mark if S&S skate like they did at 2011 Worlds, but with a throw 3Axel at the end of the program instead of a 3Sal. V&T should also lose the PCS, but this is where unfair judging will come into play and the reason why S&S sadly have a very low chance of actually winning.
    I have seen some world medalist ice dance teams with less dance holds than V/T's this year SP. S/S have 3A but they are stopping their program and then doing that axel. They are doing nothing almost 3-4 seconds. English is not my first language. Maybe this video will help.
    http://youtu.be/hevhXXyAqhE?t=5m11s
    Why V/T should lose PCS? I don't understand.

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