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Thread: What would results at all Worlds and Olympics since 2000 have been had all skate cleanly

  1. #16
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    I didnt notice the 2008 Worlds. I dont think Kostner would have beaten either a clean Kim or clean Asada that year, even going clean herself. She wasnt yet seen as a skater at their level. So I would pick Kim gold, Asada silver, kostner bronze for that year.

    I agree the 2011 Worlds would have gone Kim, Kostner, and Asada even had all gone cleanly (and really well) though, although this case it would be extremely close.

    A clean Asada would still have a flutz deduction and -GOE on that jump btw. She is not capable of doing it any differently.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blades of Passion View Post
    Also, a perfect Kwan was NOT going to lose. The second mark is the tiebreaker. Irina doing a harder 3-3 wasn't going to make up the difference. She would have needed two 3-3 combos AND two 3Lutzes, which is something she was never able to do. The results would have been exactly as they were in the SP - 1. Kwan, 2. Slutskaya, 3. Cohen, 4. Hughes.
    ROTFL it is obvious you did not follow much ladies skating at the time. The only times from 2000-2002 Kwan beat Slutskaya in a competition were when she skated sensationally and Irina made mistakes. Like the 2000 and 2001 Worlds where kwan skated probably her 2 best performances ever in combined technical and artistic strength, and included a clean triple-triple, and still lost judges to a subpar Irina who didnt skate cleanly, and landed less clean triples. In their 10 real meetings from 2000-2002 (I am excluding USFSA cheesefests which I dont even remember most results of, but have no bearing on ISU events) those were Michelle's only 2 victories these 3 years. Everytime they made comparable mistakes, or Irina sometimes made even more, Irina always won.

    Just look at their other two major meetings of the year. Grand Prix final Irina lands 4 triples in the first long program, only 3 in the second, and wins over Kwan who lands 5 and 6 respectively. Yes I would agree that was a wrong result, but it clearly shows where the judges favor was at the time. At Worlds both skated cleanly with 6 triples, and Irina won the long program phase. So what on earth was so enormously different about the Olympics that suddenly Irina even with just 1 hard triple-triple wouldnt win over Kwan with none.

    Tara with just 1 triple-triple beat a clean Michelle and Nagano, and the judges like Irina only about 5 times more than they liked Tara in the matchup with Michelle.

    Cohen was also never going to beat Hughes in Salt Lake City. Yeah she did in the short but Hughes was never a great short program skater, and her short really deserved about 8th place but since she was World medalist in the U.S she was gifted a ridiculous 4th place. Cohen didnt do a long program even close to Hughes's Salt Lake City LP until atleast 2005. Her marks were also miles behind the other three with only 1 real mistake.

    Lastly that Slutskaya got up to 5.9 on both sets with that lame performance (in many ways her marks were higher than winner Hughes who got none) and lost the gold by only .1, shows with her best performance her marks would have been through the roof, and too much for Kwan without a triple-triple to ever beat, even in the U.S.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I didnt notice the 2008 Worlds. I dont think Kostner would have beaten either a clean Kim or clean Asada that year, even going clean herself. She wasnt yet seen as a skater at their level. So I would pick Kim gold, Asada silver, kostner bronze for that year.

    I agree the 2011 Worlds would have gone Kim, Kostner, and Asada even had all gone cleanly (and really well) though, although this case it would be extremely close.

    A clean Asada would still have a flutz deduction and -GOE on that jump btw. She is not capable of doing it any differently.
    Asada's one of the hardest to judge what "clean" is - full difficulty, full levels, full credit or just safely landed jumps with possible < here and there? That season she landed 2 3-3's and a 3A at GPF and 4CC but at the former, she had a 2-foot on the 3A and a crappy 3F-3T while at the latter, 3F-3T was downgraded. That said, if she did everything perfectly (i.e. take her 3Flip-3Loop from GPF, her Axel from 4CC, her 3Flip-3Toe from Worlds, don't lose any levels) I think she would've won even with the fLutz - the score ceiling for her would be just around 140. Kim's score ceiling seemed to be just around 137-138 even with 7 triples including the Loop. At CoR Kim did about as well as possible hitting all her levels and scored 133 (only nitpicks being a scratchy 3Lutz and no 3 jump combo).

    Until the Olympic season it was close though. It depends on whether you define clean Kim as including a 3Loop or not and whether or not you define clean Asada as including 3A and both 3-3s (2008) or 2 3As and a 3-3 (2009) - Kim gave up on her 7-triple program by Worlds both seasons and by 2009 Worlds Asada had given up on her more ambitious layout.

  4. #19
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    I define clean as both landing everything they have planned at a given time without error. So that would mean no < calls for Mao, despite her being heavily prone to them, and of course no triple loop after 2008 for Kim. It would not discount a flutz for Mao, as that is the only lutz jump she is capable of doing and she chooses to include the triple flutz in her programs. It would not require every jump to get 1 point or more in GOE, something Mao especialy struggles with even on a good day.

    Looking at them over the years I can comfortably say a clean Kim easily beats a clean Mao in any of 2009, 2010, or 2011, regardless of whether Mao has a higher base value. 2008 and 2013 would have been fairly close, although I would still guess Kim winning. 2007 would almost certainly be Mao. The closest barometer in 2008 was the December 2007 Grand Prix final where Mao did a clean long program with a triple axel and 2 triple-triples, 6 points higher base value than Kim, and still on the LP by only 1 point over Kim who fell on her triple loop. Mao's score there was 133 and change, so I would disagree she had a score ceiling of 140 around then.

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    I define clean as both landing everything they have planned at a given time without error. So that would mean no < calls for Mao, despite her being heavily prone to them, and of course no triple loop after 2008 for Kim. It would not discount a flutz for Mao, as that is the only lutz jump she is capable of doing and she chooses to include the triple flutz in her programs. It would not require every jump to get 1 point or more in GOE, something Mao especialy struggles with even on a good day.

    Looking at them over the years I can comfortably say a clean Kim easily beats a clean Mao in any of 2009, 2010, or 2011, regardless of whether Mao has a higher base value. 2008 and 2013 would have been fairly close, although I would still guess Kim winning. 2007 would almost certainly be Mao. The closest barometer in 2008 was the December 2007 Grand Prix final where Mao did a clean long program with a triple axel and 2 triple-triples, 6 points higher base value than Kim, and still on the LP by only 1 point over Kim who fell on her triple loop. Mao's score there was 133 and change, so I would disagree she had a score ceiling of 140 around then.
    All right; if +GOE isn't necessary for "clean" then yeah, in 2008 clean Kim could edge out clean Mao; the 140 ceiling I mentioned would include the best GOE she got for each of the 3A/3-3's, 3 Lvl4 spins and 1 Lvl3 SS & spin. Still the -2 flutz. And in 2009/2010, clean Kim >> clean Mao by probably 15+ points and in 2011 a clean Kim was likely a good 5 points higher than a clean Mao (which was impossible in 2011 anyway).

  6. #21
    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Tara with just 1 triple-triple beat a clean Michelle and Nagano, and the judges like Irina only about 5 times more than they liked Tara in the matchup with Michelle.
    No, Tara had TWO 3-3 combos, along with two 3Lutzes.

    And Slutskaya getting 5.9's from Russian judges doesn't mean anything. She was not going to beat Kwan at the 2002 Olympics if the latter skated perfectly. Period. Irina beat Kwan so much because Kwan never skated near her best earlier in the 2000-2002 seasons. Irina gave one amazing performance at the 2000 season GPF and the judges kept thinking she would deliver to that level at every competition for the next 2 and a half years afterward...but she never did. However, she was technically strong and consistent, so she kept being over-rewarded because the judges felt safe with her.

    But, after 2 years of never actually delivering on the same level as what Kwan showed at 2000 Worlds and 2001 Worlds, Slutskaya lost her anointment. At the 2002 Olympics, it was up to Kwan to make the mistake in order for Slutskaya to win. Kwan was the most artistic and a 4 time World Champion, in comparison to Slutskaya being a 0-time World Champion. Hence why Slutskaya lost the SP to Kwan at 2002 Olympics, even though the tech mark is the tiebreaker in that segment of the competition.

  7. #22
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    I think what you're saying here is what "should" have happened at all these competitions--the skater with the most beautiful and hardest program shoulda won. Or, the order the judges "wanted" it to be, most likely.

    That's why some people want falls, major mistakes, etc. to count for more than they do. Sometimes it seems like they decide who "should" win and it doesn't vary from that. I don't see how Lambiel and Abbott ever would have gotten medals over Lysacek and Evgeni, in either order.

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poodlepal View Post
    That's why some people want falls, major mistakes, etc. to count for more than they do. Sometimes it seems like they decide who "should" win and it doesn't vary from that. I don't see how Lambiel and Abbott ever would have gotten medals over Lysacek and Evgeni, in either order.
    I am baffled by your implication in the bolded part. Lambiel in his prime was a better skater than Lysacek. Evan is lucky that he peaked in 2009-2010 when everyone was either retired, coming back from retirement and past their prime, or coming back from an injury. Evan only beat Lambiel in 1 competition from 2005-2008. Even with Evan's lucky World and Olympic wins Lambiel still arguably has the better career with 2 World titles + Olympic silver and 2 Grand Prix final titles.

    Abbott at his best is also a far better skater than Evan, but unfortunately due to his problems with nerves and competing and lack of clout that Evan has in spades from the USFSA he has achieved less.

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Abbott at his best is also a far better skater than Evan, but unfortunately due to his problems with nerves and competing and lack of clout that Evan has in spades from the USFSA he has achieved less.
    I am often annoyed by how USFSA chooses to dole out their support, but I do have to say that I think they'd have supported Abbott far, FAR more if he were able to control his nerves even somewhat

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by tulosai View Post
    I am often annoyed by how USFSA chooses to dole out their support, but I do have to say that I think they'd have supported Abbott far, FAR more if he were able to control his nerves even somewhat
    I adore Jeremy, but even I am at my wit's end with his nerves/focus issues after his performances at Skate Canada this weekend.

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