Nate Silver-ing Skate Canada: LADIES

Short Program

Base value
Julia: 32.53
Gracie: 32.24
Kaetlyn: 29.63
Christina: 29.61
Akiko 28.73
Amelie: 28.63
Natalia: 26.73
Veronik: 26.70
Courtney: 24.54

GOE
Gracie: 6.29
Julia: 5.42
Akiko: 4.46
Christina: 4.35
Amelie: 3.47
Kaetlyn: 2.86
Courtney: 2.13
Natalia: 1.23
Veronik: 0.61

Jumps
Gracie: 21.34
Julia: 21.09
Christina: 19.25
Amelie: 17.30
Kaetlyn: 17.27
Akiko: 16.62
Veronik: 14.04
Natalia: 13.57
Courtney: 12.38

Combo
Julia: 11.30 (3Z-3T GOE: 1.2)
Gracie: 11.20 (3Z-3T GOE: 1.1)
Christina: 9.40 (3T-3T GOE: 1.2)
Kaetlyn: 7.70 (3T-3T GOE: -0.5)
Amelie: 7.60 (3L-2L GOE: 0.7)
Courtney: 7.20 (3F-2T GOE: 0.6)
Veronik: 6.90 (3L-2T GOE: 0.5)
Natalia: 6.60 (3F-2T GOE: 0)
Akiko: 6.50 (3T-3T< GOE: -0.5)

Single Jump
Christina: 6.41 (3Lx GOE:0.8)
Kaetlyn: 6.30 (3F GOE:1.00)
Julia: 6.13 (3Fx GOE: 0.30)
Gracie: 6.01 (3Lx GOE: 0.40)
Akiko: 5.70 (3F GOE:0.4)
Amelie: 5.50 (3F GOE: 0.2)
Natalia: 3.20 (3T GOE: -0.9)
Veronik: 3.20 (3F GOE:-2.10)
Courtney: 1.41 (2Zx GOE -0.9)

Axel
Akiko: 4.42 (2Ax GOE: 0.79)
Amelie: 4.20 (2Ax GOE 0.57)
Gracie: 4.13 (2Ax GOE: 0.5)
Veronik: 3.94 (2A GOE: 0.64)
Natalia: 3.77 (2Ax GOE: 0.14)
Courtney: 3.77 (2A GOE: 0.14)
Julia: 3.66 (2A GOE: 0.36)
Christina: 3.44 (2A GOE: 0.14)
Kaetlyn: 3.27 (2Ax GOE:-0.36)


Non-jumps
Gracie: 17.19
Julia: 16.86
Akiko: 16.57
Kaetlyn: 15.22
Amelie: 14.80
Christina: 14.71
Natalia: 14.39
Courtney: 14.29
Veronik: 13.27

Spins
Julia: 12.26 (FCSp4/LSp4/CCoSp4/ GOE: 2.86)
Gracie: 11.99 (FCSp3/LSp4/CCoSp4/ GOE: 2.99)
Akiko: 10.97 (FCSp4/LSp4/CCoSp3/ GOE: 2.07)
Courtney: 10.70 (LSp3/FCSp3/CCoSp4 GOE: 2.00)
Kaetlyn: 11.06 (LSp4/FSSp4/CCoSp4/ GOE: 1.86)
Natalia: 10.73 (FCSp4/CCoSp4/LSp4: GOE: 1.63)
Christina: 10.70 (FSSp4/LSp4/CCoSp4/ GOE: 1.50)
Amelie: 9.90 (FSSp4/LSp3/CCoSp4/ GOE:1.00)
Veronik: 9.34 (FSSp4/LSp2/CCoSp4/ GOE: 1.36)

Step Sequence
Akiko: 5.60 (StSq4 GOE: 1.70)
Gracie: 5.20 (StSq4 GOE: 1.30)
Amelie: 4.90 (StSq4 GOE: 1.00)
Julia: 4.60 (StSq4 GOE: 0.70)
Kaetlyn: 4.16 (StSq3 GOE: 0.86)
Christina: 4.01 (StSq3 GOE: 0.71)
Natalia: 3.66 (StSq3 GOE: 0.36)
Courtney: 3.59 (StSq3 GOE: 0.29)
Veronik: 3.51 (StSq3 GOE: 0.21)


Comments
1.) While Gracie scored the highest in the jumps overall, she did not dominate in any of the jumps, finishing as low as 4th (for her 3Lo). Even her 3Z-3T money combo was beaten by Julia (though not by much). While Gracie is known as a jumper, it's worth noting that she also won in the non-jump elements. Again, she did not win either spins (Julia did) or footwork (Akiko did), but basically the numbers shows that Gracie is a more all-around skater than her critics (and even her fans) give her credit for. Gracie does get good +GOE, she was first in that category.
2.) Julia is no slouch either. She had the highest base value and spins, was second in jumps, overall non-jump elements and GOE. I may do a separate PCS analysis, but her PCS marks were lower than Gracie and Akiko, hence her being a few points behind Gracie.
3.) The jumps were not there for Akiko, she was sixth. But she was third in non-jumps and overall +GOE, first in step sequence (nice +GOE) and double axel and had the highest PCS for the night.
4.) Christina, your 3Lo rocks! It rocked so much you got the highest scoring triple jump, even over those who attempted more difficult jumps. She also was 3rd in jumps overall. It's encouraging to see Christina hit solid levels on her spins and step sequence, but her GOE is still pretty low. So keep practicing those spins, Christina.
6.) Kaetlyn had some key factors that put her high despite the 2A mistake: second in her single triple jump (with her flip, which got a nice +1.00 GOE) and fourth behind the top three in non-jump elements. But she was not very high in +GOE relative to the top 3.
6.) How fun is it to see Amelie rank quite highly in several categories: second in double axel jump and third in step sequence behind Akiko and Gracie. Amelie does need to work on her spins, she was 8th in that segment.
7.) The jumps were not there for Courtney, but interesting to see her in 4th in spins.

This was a fun analysis, it revealed a lot for me! Hope this was helpful for all of you.

Mrs. P you rock! I love your analysis and look forward to more! Thanks for taking the time to do this.

I wish there were a 'love' button I could click just to let you know I love your stats breakdowns, Mrs. P.!

No button, but we have a love smiley

Thanks for the kind words! I love doing these and helps me get educated on the field.

Free Skate

Base value as executed
Julia:61.82
Courtney: 59.68
Akiko: 57.45
Gracie: 53.05
Christina: 50.73
Amelie: 45.89
Veronik: 45.62
Natalia: 44.63


GOE
Julia: 8.64
Akiko: 4.31
Christina: 3.22
Amelie: 3.09 (and -1 for fall)
Gracie: 3.04 (and -1 for fall)
Courtney: 2.63
Natalia: 0.41
Veronik: -3.69 (and -2 for falls)

Jumps
Julia: 49.12
Courtney: 47.38
Akiko: 39.71
Christina: 37.12
Gracie: 36.72
Amelie: 34.03
Natalia: 28.54
Veronik: 26.82

Highest-scoring combo
Gracie: 10.90 (3Z-3T)
Courtney: 10.20 (3F-3T)
Amelie: 10.07 (3Lo-2Lo-2Lox)
Julia: 9.8 (3Z-3T (e))
Christina: 8.52 (3T-2T-2Lx)
Akiko: 7.56 (3F-2Tx)
Veronik: 7.10 (3F-2T)
Natalia: 6.80 (3T-2T-2T)

Highest-scoring single jump
Courtney: 7.2 (3Zx)
Julia: 6.73 (3Lox)
Christina: 6.71 (3Lox)
Amelie: 6.4 (3Lo)
Akiko: 6.11 (3Lox)
Gracie: 5.80 (3Lo)
Natalia: 5.2 (3F)
Veronik: 4.2 (3Z (e))


Non-jumps elements
Akiko: 22.05
Julia: 21.34
Gracie: 19.37
Christina: 16.83
Natalia: 16.50
Veronik: 15.11
Courtney: 14.93
Amelie: 14.92

Spins:
Julia: 13.04 (FCsp4/LSp4/CCoSp4 + 3.64 GOE)
Akiko: 12.55 (FCSp4/CCoSp4/FCCoSp4+ 2.35 GOE)
Gracie: 11.97 (FCoSp4/CCoSp4/LSp3 + 3.07 GOE)
Natalia: 10.74 (FCSp4/CCoSp4/LSp3 + 1.64 GOE)
Christina: 10.43 (FSSp4/CCoSp4/FCCoSp2 + 1.43 GOE)
Veronik: 9.67 (FCCoSp3/FSSp3/CCoSp4 + 1.2 GOE)
Courtney: 9.34 (FCSp4/FCCoSp3/CCoSp1 + 1.14 GOE)
Amelie: 8.04 (FCSSp4/LSp2/CCoSp1 + 1.83 GOE)

Step sequence

Akiko: 5.60 (StSq4 + 1.70 GOE)
Julia: 4.90 (StSq4 + 1.00 GOE)
Gracie: 4.30 (StSq3 + 1.00 GOE)
Amelie: 4.01 (StSq3 + 0.71 GOE)
Christina: 3.80 (StSq3 + 0.50 GOE)
Natalia: 3.66 (StSq3+0.36 GOE)
Courtney: 3.59 (StSq3 0.29 GOE)
Veronik: 3.34 (StSq3 + 0.04 GOE)

Spiral sequence:
Akiko: 3.90 (1.90 GOE)
Julia: 3.40 (1.40 GOE)
Gracie: 3.1 (1.10 GOE)
Amelie: 2.90 (0.9 GOE)
Christina: 2.6 (0.6 GOE)
Natalia: 2.10 (.1 GOE)
Veronik: 2.1 (.1 GOE)
Courtney: 2.0 (0 GOE)




Comments
1.) Julia by far has the most well-executed program of the day, which is reflected in her high GOE of execution. Combine that with a high base value, and you got the score you saw.
2.) Akiko's jump mistakes really cost her today, but she did enough in jumps to get silver and was aided with with strong non-jump elements, in particular her step and spiral sequence.
3.) By my estimates, Gracie lost at least 11.15 in BV alone, that doesn't account for +GOE, just levels and completing the jumps as planned with 0 + GOE. Again, Gracie had strong spins/steps that kept her in that high-110 range. The 3Z-3T continues to be her money jump. In her senior career, she has only missed that jump combo three times (72.7 percent success rate). Mathman is right here. If she can hit the jumps....the scores will go up quite a bit.
4.) Courtney had a nice comeback in the FS, but her non-jump elements need work, she lost some levels here and had low +GOE.
5.) Christina's Loop jump is pretty nice. She got some great +GOE on it. But otherwise, she will need to keep working on her spins both on hitting levels and getting higher + GOE.