It is possible she could snatch a medal but Asada, Kim, Kostner, Wagner would have to have some melt downs and then trust she can get past Suzuki and hold off the two Russian ladies and the third Japanese lady as well as Osmond and Korpi and the Chinese phenom - not easy. The stars would have to align or maybe better put out of align for her to medal..
In your estimation, then, only 6 people will have a "big competition" before the Olympics (those that qualify for GPF)? Please explain what your comment meant about the Olympics being her "first big competition of the season"...
For Gracie this season it's not about becoming a artist on the ice at least not with getting a new coach after the season has already started. I think Frank simply wants her to be more consistent while working on other aspects of her skating. There will be time next year to blossom into a better artistic skater. The plan is to peak at Nationals not in October or November. If she doesn't make the GPF it won't be a bad thing it just means more time to work with Frank.
I think Gracie could be a darkhorse in Sochi but her lack of consistency doesn't make her a good bet for darkhorse. Julia is the biggest darkhorse IMO. She has the difficulty, the spins and (most importantly) the consistency to move in if the big names make mistakes.
I'd bet on Julia way more than Gracie at this point. Gracie has some time b/w now and the Olympics but I seriously doubt she's going to develop that laser focus, consistency and killer instinct Julia has had for years now. Julia is a true competitor and that's why she's the best bet for darkhorse. Gracie is still a darkhorse but that's only on the off chance she manages to deliver two perfect programs in Sochi under pressure. It could happen...but based on her current up and down pattern, I don't know how great her odds are there.
Gracie gets 180+ with mistakes and her PCS has shot through the roof
a clean Gracie will score 200+, so definitely in the mix for a medal in Sochi
Gracie does better starting the the middle of the SP scores pack
then she pulls herself up by getting a good LP run
her scoring potential is higher than the old and worn out Wagner
Yeah, because Wagner is so old and so worn out.
Well she definitely has a chance if one of the top 3 screws up and she manages to do 2 clean programs. I know I'm jumping way ahead, but I'm excited to see her and all the Russian babies at Pyeongchang 2018.
If Gracie skates her program as choreographed, relaxed, up to speed, no mistakes, and with her usual jump height and spin speed, she will medal at this Olympics. Why? She is a striking beauty, she has charisma, and her top performances "sing"!
I actually am puzzled & a little annoyed at how USFS & the media has made her the face of US figure skating this year. 2nd at nationals once, and suddenly she's the one? Unfair to the actual champion, but also probably not great for Gracie--the pressure must be enormous, for this as-yet unproven skater on the senior international circuit. I wish they'd leave her alone, let her train, and just see what happens. As it is, ALL eyes are on her, and there really are more than 3 good girls vying for those Olympic spots.
All that being said, this is NOT Gracie's time yet. 2018 may be a more realistic medal prospect for her---barring injury, of course.