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Thread: What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title?

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    Custom Title Mao88's Avatar
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    What are Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy's chances of winning the Olympic title?

    Savchenko & Szolkowy finished 6th at the 2006 Olympics. They then won back to back world titles in 2008 and 2009. However, they then had a poor season by their own standards in 2009/10 and could only win the bronze medal at the 2010 Olympics (with Shen Xue & Zhao Hongbo winning the Olympic title). Furthermore, it looks as though history may be repeating itself, as during the current quad, they won back to back world titles in 2011 and 2012, but now appear to have been eclipsed by Volosozhar & Trankov who won both the European and World titles last season. Moreover, with Volosozhar & Trankov winning Skate America in very impressive fashion, it looks as though it is going to very difficult for Savchenko & Szolkowy to regain the initiative.

    Hence, how much of a chance do Savchenko & Szolkowy still have of winning the Olympic title?

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    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    5%

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    Maybe like 2%. They would need to skate totally clean, and the favored Russians would have to fail badly.

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    With V/T's form, it will be exceedingly difficult to defeat them. I don't think they will need the 3A as that only gets about 4 or 5 more points (which won't make any difference given the PCS V/T get), and a clean performance will speak volumes in case V/T have errors. V/T have done them a favour by choosing not the most palatable FS, though we have yet to see the Germans (unless they've showed their SP/FS already?).

    With home ice advantage though, S/S will indeed have to be perfect, especially with the judges handing out PCS/GOE to V/T like candy on Halloween. The big problem is V/T's scoring potential is monstrously higher than them and the rest of the field.

    I think with a fall by V/T and a clean skate by S/S, the win *should* go to the Germans.

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    Custom Title plushyfan's Avatar
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    not too much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I think with a fall by V/T and a clean skate by S/S, the win *should* go to the Germans.
    Maybe should but wont happen. Based on the scores V&T are putting up I would venture they have atleast a 2 fall safety cushion on a clean competition by the Germans. That is before even considering the Germans have only done clean competitions 2% of the time in their careers, and V&T are far more likely to have one than S&S are.

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    Skating is art, if you let it be. Blades of Passion's Avatar
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    S&S made a mistake trying to do the side-by-side Triple Sals at Europeans last year. They've never had any consistency with that element and completely blowing it lost them the Championship. If they had just done good Double Axels, they likely would have edged out V/T. But, since they didn't, they lost all of their momentum (and clearly lost some confidence) going into Worlds.

    S&S also didn't have great programs last season. As such, people were ready to crown a new team. S&S need great programs this season. They are the best pair team out there in terms of basics and actually skating as a pair, so they SHOULD win regardless if they are clean; no other team out there is artistic anyway (aside from the glorious Stolbova & Klimov, but they have technical shortcomings). Unfortunately, V&T have been anointed; they are Russia's biggest chance for an Olympic Gold medal in a home-country Olympics and they have been undefeated the past year. Everything is working against S&S now.

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    Have S&S even competed yet this year? V/T already have 2 competitions under their belts. I wonder why S/S didn't do a Senior B like V/T did?

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    v AND t MAY HAVE peaked and are lacking technically but S squared are prone to make errors. it could be close but they probably have a 30percnet chance of winning

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    Their chance is close to zero concerning all the circumstances and the fact that judges already announced V/T as an Olympic Champions with the unbeatable scores at the first GP event of the year.

    Their "only hope" is Mr. Trankov's problem handling tough situations. The question is that for US as spectators would make it better if it were happen? I don't think so.
    The possibly worst version: V/T doing a fawlty program and still winning because of their huge PCS cushion given.

    I seriously think that ( even if they are my sentimental favourites like Shen/Zhao was last time) S/S will have a fight to the Silver. They missed too many moments in the past.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pangtongfan View Post
    Maybe should but wont happen. Based on the scores V&T are putting up I would venture they have atleast a 2 fall safety cushion on a clean competition by the Germans. That is before even considering the Germans have only done clean competitions 2% of the time in their careers, and V&T are far more likely to have one than S&S are.
    I don't think the safety is 2 falls if the Germans go clean (assuming the 2 falls would be on elements). BTW, the Germans have had more clean or near-clean competitions than 2% of their career (they wouldn't win as much as they have if that were the case). However, now V/T have greater consistency so clean performances are more likely from them. V/T's huge scores are magnified by the clean performance... I wouldn't expect to see 9.50-10.00's on PCS if there was a fall (e.g. on a SBS jump), and certainly not if there were two major mistakes.

    However, as BoP said, they are Russia's biggest chance (and 99% certain their only chance) for a figure skating gold, other than the Team competition. If V/T fall twice though, even home ice support will not save them.

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    Slim to none. V & T seem annointed and have home country advantage.

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    V&T could have 3 falls and still win even if everyone else skates their best.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianSkaterGuy View Post
    I don't think the safety is 2 falls if the Germans go clean (assuming the 2 falls would be on elements). BTW, the Germans have had more clean or near-clean competitions than 2% of their career (they wouldn't win as much as they have if that were the case). However, now V/T have greater consistency so clean performances are more likely from them. V/T's huge scores are magnified by the clean performance... I wouldn't expect to see 9.50-10.00's on PCS if there was a fall (e.g. on a SBS jump), and certainly not if there were two major mistakes.

    However, as BoP said, they are Russia's biggest chance (and 99% certain their only chance) for a figure skating gold, other than the Team competition. If V/T fall twice though, even home ice support will not save them.
    At last years Worlds S&S barely beat out the Canadian team with comparable mistakes. The judges view them as about equal to the Canadian team right now. The Canadian team would never beat V&T with only the 2 falls pangtongfan referred to, so neither would S&S.

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    More or less: more is more sequinsgalore's Avatar
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    If Volosozhar/Trankov don't make any huge mistakes, I'd say the best Savchenko/Savchenko can hope for is silver. The Russians have big elements that score big +GOE plus the highest PCS. The only way for the Germans to overcome that is to up the difficulty (like 3ATh in SP, and 3FTh and 3ATh, 3T+3T+SEQ and 3S in FS) but I doubt they can go clean with that.

    S/S do have a chance - I think - if V/T mess big time on an element, like fall on death spiral or complete botch on a lift.

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