That said, I hope we don't jinx Jason with all this declarations! :P
I'd be happy if he got on the podium at Nationals and build up from there. He hasn't finished higher than 8th in his three nationals appearances, so even a top 6 placement would be an improvement, but I do think top 3 and perhaps 4CC is quite realistic.
If he gets 2nd or even wins Nationals and gets a spot on the World/Olympic team, that is a major bonus. If he makes it to the top 10 at the Olympics that's like super ultra bonus. I do think Olympic bronze in 2014 is a huge stretch unless Jason shows up there with a quad.
We've seen what happens when a young team/skater gets to the top right away and then struggle afterward...it's brutal (Exhibits: Gachinski, Shibs, etc). So I'd rather enjoy Jason where he is now, celebrate milestones along the way and let him develop at his own pace, which seems to work for him so far.
Of course, it's possible that Jason could get to the top quickly and stay there, but that hasn't been the case for most skaters.
But that said, Jason is in a really good spot. What strikes me that he knows he is competitive for one of those spots, but yet he doesn't want it so bad that he's making a ton of silly mistakes. His team is definitely taking the cool-and-calculated approach regarding competition and I think it's paying dividends for him so far.
Of course, we'll have to see how he does in the pressure cooker that is nationals...
In followup seasons, he can definitely score 88+ but I highly doubt he'll get it this season - he simply hasn't been on the scene long enough to garner the necessary PCS (it's remarkable that he's getting 37 and 38 points of PCS considering this). Another reason I don't think he'll get it is because he has yet to achieve the necessary consistency on his triple axel. However, at the Olympics, clean skates are rewarded with higher-than-typical PCS, so who knows.
The 80.12 PCS in the FS is particularly notable in that it would have actually been the 6th highest PCS at Worlds last year (would have even beaten Hanyu's PCS). And this is his first year on the GP!
Nebelhorn: +0.86 GOE
Skate America: +1.14 GOE
Trophee Eric Bompard: +1.14 GOE
It's in the FS where he's been less consistent:
Nebelhorn: 3A+3T (0.57 GOE); 3A<< (-1.50 GOE)
Skate America: 3A<< (-1.50 GOE); 3A+1T (-2.14 GOE)
Trophee Eric Bompard: 3A-2T (-0.14 GOE); 1A (0 GOE)
So in six attempts, half of them have been ratified but only 1 of them received positive GOE (though his 3A-2T got a few zeros and a few +1).