As with the men, after two events 18 skaters have competed, though so far the only elimination of serious contenders has happened from withdrawals. The top four from the first two events:
1. Mao Asada-Need only medal in Japan, where she's the favorite to win, but she does have challengers: Akiko Suzuki has shown an ability to beat her. It's not even impossible Gracie Gold could. But it seems unlikely enough skaters will to even knock her down to 4th, where she'd still have a chance. Unless she skates badly, which she occasionally does, but really, barring that, she's in.
2. Ashley Wagner-Would need to win France to seal it, which she has a very good chance of doing; her primary competition there, provided she skates well, will be Adelina Sotnikova. But even if Sotnikova beats her she should still win silver, which makes her chances high, so again, as long as she skates well, she's in.
3. Elena Radionova-Would need to win Japan to seal it, which with Asada there is difficult, barring a bad competition from the latter. If she could win silver it would be as the chips fall, but for that, she's still need to beat Suzuki, Gold, and even Zijun Li, Alena Leonova, Mirai Nagasu, & Elene Gedevanishvili; she should be most of those last four, but can she beat all of them, and then have Suzuki or Gold help her out?
4. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva-To have a chance she'd probably have to win Russia. Not an easy thing to do, with Carolina Kostner, Julia Lipnitskaia, Kaetlyn Osmond, & Kanako Murakami all there and all very capable of beating her. Even silver would be hard, especially if Mirai Nagasu or Agnes Zawadzki cause trouble. Still she is capable of beating all of them.
1. Julia Lipnitskaia-Need only medal in Russia, where, as noted above, there are a lot of contenders. But if she skates there like she did in Canada, even if she doesn't necessarily win(a clean Kostner might still be hard to beat), it's unlikely enough of them will beat her to knock or off the podium, let alone the top four which would still leave her in contetnion.
2. Akiko Suzuki-Would need to win Japan to seal it-doable, but she might need help from Asada. Silver would make her chances pretty good, and she will likely get it if she skates her best(Gold or Radionova might threaten her, but she's capable of keeping them at bay), but whether she'll do that is another question all together.
3. Gracie Gold-Would also need to win Japan to seal it, and to have any chance of beating Asada, she'll have to hold it together through both her programs. Even if she does, it would take some work to beat Suzuki for silver and a chance, and if the latter skates badly(possible), she still has to worry about Radionova.
4. Christina Gao-Would probably have to win in France, where between Wagner and Sotnikova she'd need some luck even to win silver.
Out of contention, but could determine the fate of other ladies:
Kaetlyn Osmond-Withdrew from Skate Canada, could be a factor in Russia
Alena Leonova-Also withdrew from Skate Canada, may or may not be good enough to be a factor in Japan
Viktoria Helgesson-8th at Skate America, a lingering chance she might mix things up in Paris
Elene Gedevanishvili-9th at Skate America, but might always skate well in Japan
Contenders yet to compete: