Ice Dancing and Johnny Fan
Ladies Prospects After Two Events
As with the men, after two events 18 skaters have competed, though so far the only elimination of serious contenders has happened from withdrawals. The top four from the first two events:
1. Mao Asada-Need only medal in Japan, where she's the favorite to win, but she does have challengers: Akiko Suzuki has shown an ability to beat her. It's not even impossible Gracie Gold could. But it seems unlikely enough skaters will to even knock her down to 4th, where she'd still have a chance. Unless she skates badly, which she occasionally does, but really, barring that, she's in.
2. Ashley Wagner-Would need to win France to seal it, which she has a very good chance of doing; her primary competition there, provided she skates well, will be Adelina Sotnikova. But even if Sotnikova beats her she should still win silver, which makes her chances high, so again, as long as she skates well, she's in.
3. Elena Radionova-Would need to win Japan to seal it, which with Asada there is difficult, barring a bad competition from the latter. If she could win silver it would be as the chips fall, but for that, she's still need to beat Suzuki, Gold, and even Zijun Li, Alena Leonova, Mirai Nagasu, & Elene Gedevanishvili; she should be most of those last four, but can she beat all of them, and then have Suzuki or Gold help her out?
4. Elizaveta Tuktamisheva-To have a chance she'd probably have to win Russia. Not an easy thing to do, with Carolina Kostner, Julia Lipnitskaia, Kaetlyn Osmond, & Kanako Murakami all there and all very capable of beating her. Even silver would be hard, especially if Mirai Nagasu or Agnes Zawadzki cause trouble. Still she is capable of beating all of them.
1. Julia Lipnitskaia-Need only medal in Russia, where, as noted above, there are a lot of contenders. But if she skates there like she did in Canada, even if she doesn't necessarily win(a clean Kostner might still be hard to beat), it's unlikely enough of them will beat her to knock or off the podium, let alone the top four which would still leave her in contetnion.
2. Akiko Suzuki-Would need to win Japan to seal it-doable, but she might need help from Asada. Silver would make her chances pretty good, and she will likely get it if she skates her best(Gold or Radionova might threaten her, but she's capable of keeping them at bay), but whether she'll do that is another question all together.
3. Gracie Gold-Would also need to win Japan to seal it, and to have any chance of beating Asada, she'll have to hold it together through both her programs. Even if she does, it would take some work to beat Suzuki for silver and a chance, and if the latter skates badly(possible), she still has to worry about Radionova.
4. Christina Gao-Would probably have to win in France, where between Wagner and Sotnikova she'd need some luck even to win silver.
Out of contention, but could determine the fate of other ladies:
Kaetlyn Osmond-Withdrew from Skate Canada, could be a factor in Russia
Alena Leonova-Also withdrew from Skate Canada, may or may not be good enough to be a factor in Japan
Viktoria Helgesson-8th at Skate America, a lingering chance she might mix things up in Paris
Elene Gedevanishvili-9th at Skate America, but might always skate well in Japan
Contenders yet to compete:
We have a new name: Pogorilaya
Yup, she need only medal at her next event to make GPF.
Originally Posted by elif
Sotnikova is in strong contention. 2nd at her next event should probably do it for her, 1st would guarantee it.
Carolina is in trouble, and has to win her next event to make it. Otherwise it's unlikely.
At this point GPF is looking like:
-Pogorilya. She should not have a problem medaling a TEB.
-Lipnitskaia. She will not have a problem medaling in Russia, though she is up against a strong field.
-Mao. Barring complete meltdown, she will medal in Japan.
-Wagner. TEB is, relatively speaking, a weak field. She should have no problem getting 1st or 2nd. Either would probably do it for her.
STRONG POSSIBILITY, DEPENDING ON OTHER FACTORS:
MAYBES, NEEDING MORE HELP THAN OTHERS AND TO SKATE CLEAN BUT CAPABLE OF GETTING IT
LESS THAN MAYBES, BUT CHANCES ARE NOT ZERO
More or less: more is more
So 4 events down, things have shaken out a bit more.
-Mao Asada is the first person into the GPF *for sure*
-Elena R. and Akiko S. both have a silver and a bronze respectively; it is unlikely both will make it into the final. Elena has the tiebreaker, so if only one of them makes it in it is her.
-Gracie Gold is not going to be in the GPF this year.
-Pogorilya and Lipnitskaia remain very likely to make the final. Both need only medal at their next event. At this point, 4th would quite possibly do it for either one as well, elevating them over Elena R.
-A silver would be enough for Ashley to make it pretty much for sure at this point. Bronze might be enough. With a high enough score she could overtake Elena's and Suzuki's scores. She'd need 180 and has already scored 193 so this is attainable for her.
-Sotnikova also could probably make it with a silver, but she won't with a bronze as Elena's and Suzuki's scores will beat hers barring miracle (she'd need 190+ to beat Suzuki's combined scores).
-Kostner needs a gold to make it for sure. She could also make it with a silver and a combined score higher than Radionova's. She'd need around 202 to do this, so, while she could do it if PERFECT it's not likely.
-Tukt or Gao would need gold at their events to make it. This is almost impossible.
So at this point, it is
Into the final: Mao
Almost certainly into the final: Lipnitskaia, Pogorylia
Control their own fates, very VERY good chance: Wagner, Sotnikova
Maybes, in order of likelihood (IMO) to make it: Radionova, Suzuki, Kostner
All three of the last year's World junior medalists could make the Final. Maybe this is a first.