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Thread: The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

  1. #121
    Custom Title BlackPack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dorispulaski View Post
    BlackPack, I absolutely agree that the skaters were placed in the right places at all 3 events, by and large, which is a good thing.

    But in the current system, decisions are actually made about whether skaters have the minimum TES for worlds based on these competitions.

    In the SD at CoC, only 2 teams made the qualifying score:

    1 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 65.70 31.15 34.55 8.71 8.39 8.75 8.71 8.61 0.00 #8
    2 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 63.60 28.77 34.83 8.57 8.57 8.79 8.89 8.71 0.00 #7
    3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA 56.77 26.36 30.41 7.57 7.39 7.64 7.82 7.57 0.00 #6
    4 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 52.92 26.20 26.72 6.82 6.43 6.75 6.82 6.57 0.00 #4
    5 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 50.20 24.00 27.20 6.75 6.61 6.75 7.11 6.75 1.00 #5
    6 Yiyi ZHANG / Nan WU CHN 41.79 20.28 21.51 5.50 5.18 5.50 5.43 5.29 0.00 #1
    7 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 41.24 19.78 22.46 5.64 5.61 5.32 6.00 5.50 1.00 #3

    The current cut has been dropped from 29 to 28, but even with that change, P&B only just got a qualifying score (of course, they already had one from Worlds last year). B&S also qualified. The other 5 teams failed to make the qualifying score.

    At SC, four teams made the qualifying scores

    1 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 73.15 35.34 37.81 9.33 9.46 9.42 9.50 9.54 0.00 #8
    2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 70.35 35.91 34.44 8.54 8.50 8.58 8.67 8.71 0.00 #7
    3 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.92 32.50 29.42 7.29 7.17 7.33 7.42 7.50 1.00 #4
    4 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 59.79 31.17 29.62 7.50 7.21 7.46 7.46 7.38 1.00 #5
    5 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.91 26.58 29.33 7.29 7.13 7.42 7.42 7.38 0.00 #6
    6 Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN RUS 55.63 27.66 27.97 7.17 6.96 7.00 6.88 6.96 0.00 #3
    7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 53.74 26.17 27.57 6.92 6.75 7.00 6.96 6.83 0.00 #1
    8 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI ITA 52.03 25.92 28.11 6.96 6.88 7.17 7.17 6.96 2.00 #2

    At Skate America, 5 teams made the qualifying score
    1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 75.70 37.43 38.27 9.50 9.36 9.64 9.57 9.71 0.00 #8
    2 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 69.88 36.50 33.38 8.25 8.04 8.43 8.39 8.54 0.00 #7
    3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 61.26 30.30 30.96 7.89 7.64 7.71 7.82 7.64 0.00 #6
    4 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.71 30.79 29.92 7.54 7.29 7.54 7.46 7.54 0.00 #3
    5 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV AZE 54.53 26.43 28.10 7.14 6.82 7.07 7.14 6.96 0.00 #5
    6 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 54.28 28.85 25.43 6.39 6.11 6.36 6.50 6.39 0.00 #1
    7 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 54.10 26.36 27.74 6.96 6.64 6.93 7.14 6.96 0.00 #4
    8 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS LTU 53.17 25.85 27.32 6.79 6.54 6.93 6.96 6.89 0.00 #2




    If you look at the average and standard deviations of the TES scores at the events, CoC is significantly lower, even when you take out the Chinese skaters, who are significantly weaker than any of the teams at either SC or SA.

    TES SC SA CoC w/o Chinese
    35.34 37.43 31.15 31.15
    35.91 36.50 28.77 28.77
    32.50 30.30 26.36 26.36
    31.17 30.79 26.20 26.20
    26.58 26.43 24.00 24.00
    27.66 28.85 20.28
    26.17 26.36 19.78
    25.92 25.85
    Average 30.16 30.31 25.22 27.30
    Std Dev 4.13 4.50 4.19


    Are you a statistician? Thank you so much. The most impressive part is that I actually understood the stats because of the clarity, and I am utterly hopeless with math. The judges in CoC were in a bad mood from not liking the hotel/food or something. I wonder if A&P would qualify

  2. #122
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    I'm a retired engineer.

  3. #123
    Off the ice Buttercup's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPack View Post
    Are you a statistician? Thank you so much. The most impressive part is that I actually understood the stats because of the clarity, and I am utterly hopeless with math. The judges in CoC were in a bad mood from not liking the hotel/food or something. I wonder if A&P would qualify
    The key to grasping statistics for the non-mathematically inclined is to understand that statistical analysis is a means to an end: it can help you understand stuff, but you don't need to have a thorough grasp of the math, you just need to understand the logic and know when and how to use each test. And you've hit upon an important observation: there may have certainly been other variables that affected the judging and which couldn't be controlled for.

    Normally you'd want to run a test (most likely an ANOVA - analysis of variance) to see if the differences are statistically significant, but in this case the sample size is quite small, so there's not much point. If we were dealing with Senior Bs, however, it might be a fun project.

    Okay, fun might be overstating it.

  4. #124
    Wicked Yankee Girl dorispulaski's Avatar
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    With the software available today, it could even be fun, since it is so much easier than when I learned how to do this stuff by hand and on a very rudimentary calculator.

    Yes, there are always variables not tested for. And correlation is still not causation.

  5. #125
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    Thanks for the analysis Doris. I have come to the conclusion that with all the pouring over stats that the IJS has turned skating into baseball!!

  6. #126
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    Quote Originally Posted by semosk8tfan View Post
    Thanks for the analysis Doris. I have come to the conclusion that with all the pouring over stats that the IJS has turned skating into baseball!!
    I sort of like it (as you can probably guess ). It makes it easier for me to understand the players...

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