The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

pangtongfan · Nov 1, 2013

W&P are the bronze favorites at this point, and C&L are their closest challengers, not B&S. Just like I said all along. Yes they were different panels but anyone who isnt blind can see which teams have the better programs and are skating better right now. The scores are actually quite accurate to how the quality of the teams compares at the moment as well.

BlackPack · Nov 1, 2013

elif said:
You can't really compare two competition because of the different panels. You can't see many level 4 elements -especially CD- at the early season. Skate Canada and Skate America judges gave them even lower ranked teams. I think this is good for B/S and P/B. Because they knew what they did wrong.

If they had the same panel, would B&S and P&B beat W&P and C&L? Out of the bunch, W&P still looked to be the most polished and prepared for Sochi.

dorispulaski · Nov 1, 2013

Well C&L will be at NHK with D&W.
P&B will be at TEB with V&M
W&P will be at CoR with B&S - and this is where we will see how those 2 teams compare.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
W&P are the bronze favorites at this point, and C&L are their closest challengers, not B&S. Just like I said all along. Yes they were different panels but anyone who isnt blind can see which teams have the better programs and are skating better right now. The scores are actually quite accurate to how the quality of the teams compares at the moment as well.

I&K have better FD than W&P
they are inconsitent but if they it everything they will pass W/P
I/K they deserve a good marks especially for lifts

heck than ghost FD scored a 100+
so this one can score a 108+ mileage

BlackPack · Nov 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
W&P are the bronze favorites at this point, and C&L are their closest challengers, not B&S. Just like I said all along. Yes they were different panels but anyone who isnt blind can see which teams have the better programs and are skating better right now. The scores are actually quite accurate to how the quality of the teams compares at the moment as well.

Sadly, I think you're right. I was rooting for B&S but it doesn't look good for them.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

BlackPack said:
Sadly, I think you're right. I was rooting for B&S but it doesn't look good for them.

2 boring outdated programs
hope I&K finally beat them

elif · Nov 1, 2013

sky_fly20 said:
I&K have better FD than W&P
they are inconsitent but if they it everything they will pass W/P

If I/K can get those levels they are my favorites too. Better skating skills than W/P and C/L. Better programs, new lifts, fast twizzles. They have everything except levels.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

elif said:
If I/K can get those levels they are my favorites too. Better skating skills than W/P and C/L. Better programs, new lifts, fast twizzles. They have everything except levels.

sadly that has been their biggest problem, I&K losing levels they are inconsistent, no doubt if they hit everything they will beat W/P, C/L, etc.
I liked their FD, better lifts worth +2 GOE, it renewed my like for them since junior worlds

BlackPack · Nov 1, 2013

I&K practice FD & SD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeYO_LpDrVs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJXnKqZo5Jo

Two stunning lifts in the first half of the FD. I think the classical style suits them, as Elena looks like the quintessential prima donna. They also did well with Don Quixote a few years ago, until they went astray with some odd programs. This Zhulin guy is just ... hopeless. I'm beginning to think he's in it for the girls only.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

BlackPack said:
I&K practice FD & SD

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeYO_LpDrVs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJXnKqZo5Jo

Two stunning lifts in the first half of the FD. I think the classical style suits them, as Elena looks like the quintessential prima donna. They also did well with Don Quixote a few years ago, until they went astray with some odd programs. This Zhulin guy is just ... hopeless. I'm beginning to think he's in it for the girls only.

yes their FD should be good to behold, now hopefully with better costumes not all black :disapp:
this will comfortably beat B/S FD

pangtongfan · Nov 1, 2013

The only hope I&K have at the bronze in Sochi is if the Russian fed. dumps B&S as their #1 and starts to back I&K instead. No way the Russian #2 team is winning a medal at the Games. However I doubt that will happen. B&S as World bronze medalists will probably continue getting support as the #1 which IMO is probably a mistake for this year atleast. B&S are just not good enough this year to get a medal so if they are supported as the #1 there will definitely be no Russians on the Sochi podium.

Yes they are probably winning this event but winning here by beating an old P&B (who IMO are no factor ever again) would indicate nothing. You will see them lose on home ice to W&P in a few weeks barring huge improvements or some major errors by W&P.

The problem with I&K is they have a history of inconsistency, mistakes, technical problems in big events, which is also why I think the Russian fed. will be hesistant to back them unless they really show something in their upcoming events.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
The only hope I&K have at the bronze in Sochi is if the Russian fed. dumps B&S as their #1 and starts to back I&K instead. No way the Russian #2 team is winning a medal at the Games. However I doubt that will happen. B&S as World bronze medalists will probably continue getting support as the #1 which IMO is probably a mistake for this year atleast. B&S are just not good enough this year to get a medal so if they are supported as the #1 there will definitely be no Russians on the Sochi podium.

Yes they are probably winning this event but winning here by beating an old P&B (who IMO are no factor ever again) would indicate nothing. You will see them lose on home ice to W&P in a few weeks barring huge improvements or some major errors by W&P.

The problem with I&K is they have a history of inconsistency, mistakes, technical problems in big events, which is also why I think the Russian fed. will be hesistant to back them unless they really show something in their upcoming events.

agreed, but that can happen, W&P did not qualify for the GPF but placed 5th at Worlds
I agree P&B and B&S have fallen into the bronze world medal curse and probably wont podium in Sochi
it will be between C&L or W&P

though you will get a clearer picture of the couples by 2014 Europeans
I&K had he highest FD score 100+ last Europeans even as Russian No.2

pangtongfan · Nov 1, 2013

I really wanted I&K to win Europeans last year. They were so close. Their Worlds showing, even finishing below the Shibutanis was a nightmarish result. I was so dissapointed with their performances and finish there. I hope to see them back in atleast the top 5 or 6 this year.

sky_fly20 · Nov 1, 2013

pangtongfan said:
I really wanted I&K to win Europeans last year. They were so close. Their Worlds showing, even finishing below the Shibutanis was a nightmarish result. I was so dissapointed with their performances and finish there. I hope to see them back in atleast the top 5 or 6 this year.

well they can still win Europeans this year C&L was their closest rival last year

BlackPack · Nov 1, 2013

It does look like the revolving door of the bronze medal curse is real :eek:

Macassar88 · Nov 1, 2013

BlackPack said:
It does look like the revolving door of the bronze medal curse is real

Or you can look at last quad where Tessa and Scott got the bronze medal and then won the olympics the year after

Mrs. P · Nov 1, 2013

Actually, the curse seemed to be on the World Champion in the last quad.

2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.

As for the bronze medalists during that quad:

2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, won silver in 4th at Olympics
2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds
2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.

dorispulaski · Nov 1, 2013

Maybe Tessa & Scott sang the Red Sox song "Tessie" prior to Vancouver to remove the dreaded Bronze curse, just like Red Sox fans attacked the dreaded Curse of the Bambino

Tessie, sung by The Dropkick Murphys:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6EIN3EeE78

pangtongfan · Nov 1, 2013

Mrs. P said:
Actually, the curse seemed to be on the World Champion in the last quad.

2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.

As for the bronze medalists during that quad:

2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, won silver in 4th at Olympics
2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds
2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.

Actually combining the two it looks like the curse is on both:
2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.
2010: Virtue / Moir. Injured, missed most of next season, lost their World title.
2011: Davis / White. Lost their World title next year.
2012: Virtue / Moir. Lost their World title on home ice next year.
2013: Davis / White. ? just as V&M in 2010 went against the bronze norm, I expect D&W will go against the gold norm and win the OGM though.

2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, 4th at Olympics, never won elusive World title.
2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds.
2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.
2010: Faiella / Scali - Came something like 8th at Europeans, then retired without even competing at Worlds.
2011: Shibutanis - Nothing needs to be explained here.
2012: Pechalat / Bourzat- dropped to 6th next year.
2013: Bobrova / Soloviev - will likely follow recent patterns.

V&M in 2009 to 2010 and maybe D&W in 2013 to 2014 are the only exceptions. Silver or off the podium the previous year is the place to be.

Mrs. P · Nov 1, 2013

2010
Gold- Virtue/Moir (2009 Worlds bronze medalist; 6th in 2007)
Silver - Davis/White (4th at 2009 Worlds; 7th in 2007)
Bronze- Domnina / Shabalin (2009 World Champion; 5th in 2007)

2006
Gold - Navka/Kostomarov (2004/2005 World Champion; 4th in 2003)
Silver - Belbin/Agosto (2005 Silver medalist; 7th in 2003)
Bronze - Grushina/Goncharov (2005 Bronze medalist; 5th in 2003)

2002
Gold - Anissina/Peizerat (2001 Silver medalist; 2nd in 1999)
Silver - Lobacheva/Averbukh (2001 Bronze medalist; 4th in 1999)
Bronze - Fusar-Poli/Margaglio (2001 World champion; 5th in 1999)

1998-
Gold - Grishuk/Platov (1994-1997 World champion)
Silver - Krylova/Ovsyannikov (1996-1997 Silver medalist; 5th in 1995)
Bronze - Anissina/Peizerat (5th in 1997, 6th in 1995).

Correlation does not always = causation. However, it seems that basically, you're better off off the podium at the beginning of the quad and building your way up.

However, the stats show that the bronze medalist hit rate on the podium is 75 percent in recent years, with the exception being the 1997 medalists, Bourne/Kraatz, who were bronze medalists during the entire quad, so not getting on the podium in 1998 obviously was very disappointing.

The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

pangtongfan

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BlackPack

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

sky_fly20

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BlackPack

sky_fly20

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elif

sky_fly20

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BlackPack

sky_fly20

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pangtongfan

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sky_fly20

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pangtongfan

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sky_fly20

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BlackPack

Macassar88

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl

pangtongfan

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Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!

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