The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance | Page 6 | Golden Skate

The Battle for Bronze - Ice Dance

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
However, the stats show that the bronze medalist hit rate on the podium is 75 percent in recent years

And after this years Olympics it will surely be down to 60%, and if you want to go back to 1994 down to 50%. Hardly indicative of a pattern.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
And after this years Olympics it will surely be down to 60%, and if you want to go back to 1994 down to 50%. Hardly indicative of a pattern.

That's why I put that caveat of correlation =/= causation.

That said, 1994 was sort of a strange year with Torvill and Dean coming back after 10 years away from competition along with the fact that 1994 came just 2 years after the prior Olympics, which is why I focused only to 1998.

But for the record, Maya Usova / Alexander Zhulin were bronze medalists in 1991 and went on to win bronze in 1992

So since the USSR breakup, 2/3 of the bronze medalists in a pre-Olympic Worlds went on to win bronze at the Olympics. That's not terrible odds.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
That's why I put that caveat of correlation =/= causation.

That said, 1994 was sort of a strange year with Torvill and Dean coming back after 10 years away from competition along with the fact that 1994 came just 2 years after the prior Olympics, which is why I focused only to 1998.

Well the 1993 World bronze medalists finished 6th in Lillehammer, 6th at Europeans, and then split up after she injured herself at Worlds, so T&D as a return made no difference to them.
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
Actually combining the two it looks like the curse is on both:
2006/2007: Denkova / Staviski. Career ended later that year due to Staviski's drunk driver case.
2008: Delobel / Schoenfelder. Delobel gets pregnant, ends up 6th at the Olympics.
2009: Domnina / Shabalin. Injuries had them only in bronze medal position by the Olympics.
2010: Virtue / Moir. Injured, missed most of next season, lost their World title.
2011: Davis / White. Lost their World title next year.
2012: Virtue / Moir. Lost their World title on home ice next year.
2013: Davis / White. ? just as V&M in 2010 went against the bronze norm, I expect D&W will go against the gold norm and win the OGM though.

2007: Belbin / Agosto - Dropped to 4th in 2008, 4th at Olympics, never won elusive World title.
2008: Khokhlova / Novitski - Dropped 6th in 2009, then 9th at the Olympics, WD from 2010 Worlds.
2009: Tessa Virtue / Scott Moir - Won everything in 2009-2010 except for GPF.
2010: Faiella / Scali - Came something like 8th at Europeans, then retired without even competing at Worlds.
2011: Shibutanis - Nothing needs to be explained here.
2012: Pechalat / Bourzat- dropped to 6th next year.
2013: Bobrova / Soloviev - will likely follow recent patterns.



V&M in 2009 to 2010 and maybe D&W in 2013 to 2014 are the only exceptions. Silver or off the podium the previous year is the place to be.

4 years straight of Bronze medalists practically falling off the face of the earth. :bang:
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Well the 1993 World bronze medalists finished 6th in Lillehammer, 6th at Europeans, and then split up after she injured herself at Worlds, so T&D as a return made no difference to them.

Perhaps, but I'm talking about T/D's impact to the Ice Dance field that year, not just to one team. We haven't had a professional team (and of T/D's caliber) returning to the amateur ranks since then, so that's something to keep in mind when determining probabilities.

As I said, even with that factor, 2/3 isn't bad odds.

ETA: Fun little exercise.
So among 4th place finishers in the years leading up to 1992 to 2010 Olympics, only 1/3 of them (two couples) went on to medal the following year: Grishuk/Platov in 1991 (silver in 1992; gold in 1994/1998) and Davis/White in 2009 (silver in 2010, ??? in 2014).

Again, I wouldn't take too much stock in correlation here, but it's sort of interesting to see.

ETA2: Odds look good for silver medalists too:

5/6 or 83 percent of silver medalists in a Pre-Olympic Worlds from 1991 to 2009 went on to medal the following year. The sole exception was in 2009, when Belbin and Agosto finished 4th the following year.

Even better, the silver medalists in that time period have an 83 percent hit rate to get silver or gold and a 50 percent hit rate at winning it all.
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
Perhaps, but I'm talking about T/D's impact to the Ice Dance field that year, not just to one team. We haven't had a professional team (and of T/D's caliber) returning to the amateur ranks since then, so that's something to keep in mind when determining probabilities.

As I said, even with that factor, 2/3 isn't bad odds.

ETA: Fun little exercise.
So among 4th place finishers in the years leading up to 1992 to 2010 Olympics, only 1/3 of them (two couples) went on to medal the following year: Grishuk/Platov in 1991 (silver in 1992; gold in 1994/1998) and Davis/White in 2009 (silver in 2010, ??? in 2014).

Again, I wouldn't take too much stock in correlation here, but it's sort of interesting to see.

ETA2: Odds look good for silver medalists too:

5/6 or 83 percent of silver medalists in a Pre-Olympic Worlds from 1991 to 2009 went on to medal the following year. The sole exception was in 2009, when Belbin and Agosto finished 4th the following year.

Even better, the silver medalists in that time period have an 83 percent hit rate to get silver or gold and a 50 percent hit rate at winning it all.

In the past quad, it's only been D&W and V&M getting the gold/silver. 2 teams fighting for gold/silver in a prolonged period of time has never been seen in ice dancing history really. One team winning everything straight ended with G&P and K&O, and it's been musical chairs ever since. The closest was with DenStas vs N&K and D&L but only briefly.
 

pangtongfan

Match Penalty
Joined
Jun 16, 2010
Denkova & Stayviski were only Navka & Kostomarov's archrival for one season of N&K's dominance, and N&K pretty easily won all those meetings (deserved or not). Then Belbin & Agosto became Navka & Kostomarov's archrivals for 2 seasons and N&K comfortably won all 4 meetings the 2 teams had those 2 seasons. So I would say that was a period of one sided rivalries on top.

Anissina & Peizerat didnt really have 1 main rivals from 1999-2002. Their #1 rivals switched around from Krylova & Ovsiannikov, then Fusar Poli & Margalio, and lastly Lobacheva & Averbuhk, and they ended up winning half the team, and losing by 1 judge the other half. The other top teams of that quad- Bourne & Kraatz, Drobiazko & Vanagas as well could all move anywhere from 1st to 5th, while A&P were always 1st or 2nd, but often not 1st.
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
B&S COC FD - Four Seasons http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxyBhEr5nmI

Cliched prototypical Russian program from the costuming to the music. Consistent criticism of B&S is that like many of their Russian predecessors, they are able to skate in great speed with more simple moves and transitions into dramatic lifts. Bobrova's posture leaves a lot to be desired and her awkward free leg ruins their potentially long and clean lines. Like last year's program, the first half was powerful, but the second half's effectiveness dwindled.

P&B beat them well with the Little Prince routine.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyW68hIN2fQ

P&B aren't really good storytellers. It reminded me a bit of Rakhamo and Kokko's street urchin routine, whose story you can really understand. Stanick Jeanette successfully conveyed the Little Prince. The British Eurosport guys praised them to the sky, but I don't get it... yet. Fabien fans will once again be disappointed he couldn't find a decent pair of pants.
 

Mrs. P

Uno, Dos, twizzle!
Record Breaker
Joined
Dec 27, 2009
Some stats:

Overall score
Weaver/Poje: 175.23 (2nd, Skate Canada)
Cappellini/Lanotte: 168.49 (2nd, Skate America)
Pechalat/Bourzat: 165.68 (1st, Cup of China)
-----------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 163.42 (2nd, Cup of China)
****

Short Dance overall
Weaver/Poje: 70.35
Cappellini/Lanotte: 69.88
Bobrova/Soloviev: 65.70
--------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 63.60

Short Dance TES
Cappellini/Lanotte: 36.50
Weaver/Poje: 35.91
Bobrova/Soloviev: 31.15
----------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 28.77

Base Value
Cappellini/Lanotte: 32.00
Weaver/Poje: 30.50
Bobrova/Soloviev: 27.50
-------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 25.50

GOE
Weaver/Poje: 5.41
Cappellini/Lanotte: 4.50
Bobrova/Soloviev: 3.65
-----------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 3.27

Finnstep
Weaver/Poje: 15.50
Cappellini/Lanotte: 15.28
Bobrova/Soloviev: 12.00
------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 10.35

Everything else
Cappellini/Lanotte: 21.22
Weaver/Poje: 20.41
Bobrova/Soloviev: 19.15
---------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 18.42

Short Dance PCS
Pechalat/Bourzat: 34.83
Bobrova/Soloviev: 34.55
Weaver Poje: 34.44
----------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 33.38

****

Free Dance overall
Weaver/Poje: 104.88
Pechalat/Bourzat: 102.08
Cappellini/Lanotte: 98.61
---------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 97.72

Free Dance TES
Weaver/Poje: 51.67
Pechalat/Bourzat: 49.03
Cappellini/Lanotte: 47.00
---------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 45.58

Base value
Weaver/Poje: 40.20
Pechalat/Bourzat: 40.20
Bobrova/Soloviev: 38.20
---------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 37.70

GOE
Weaver/Poje: 11.48
Cappellini/Lanotte: 9.30
Pechalat/Bourzat: 8.83
-------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 7.38

Free Dance PCS
Weaver/Poje: 53.21
Pechlat/Bourzat: 53.05
Bobrova/Soloviev: 52.14
-------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 51.61

Using a 15/10/5 scoring for the top three in each of these categories:

Overall:
Weaver/Poje: 15
Pechalat/Bourzat: 10
Cappellini/Lanotte: 5

Short Dance:
Weaver/Poje: 80
Cappellini/Lanotte: 75
Bobrova/Soloviev: 30
Pechalat/Bourzat: 15

Free Dance:
Weaver/Poje: 75
Pechalat/Bourzat: 45
Cappellini/Lanotte: 20
Bobrova/Soloviev: 10

Total:
Weaver/Poje: 170
Cappellini/Lanotte: 100
Pechalat/Bourzat: 70
Bobrova/Soloviev: 40

****

I know, different panels, not a perfect comparison, but it gives you an idea where everything stands. W/P look great in both; Cappellini/Lanotte have a great SD, but an OK FD. Pechalat/Bourzat have a great FD, but a not great SD. And as for Bobrova/Soloviev need work in both.
 

SimplyLex

On the Ice
Joined
Oct 22, 2013
W/P were at home, unlike all the other teams. You might wanna take that into consideration too.

C/L and P/B's issues can be resolved, they just need more practice. B/S's problems are unfixable unless she works real hard on her posture/lines and overall skating skills, which is not something you can do overnight. Plus their programs are really meh and it's not just a case of execution. I would say out of all these teams B/S really look the weakest right now. Bronze medal curse, anyone?
 

BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
Some stats:

Overall score
Weaver/Poje: 175.23 (2nd, Skate Canada)
Cappellini/Lanotte: 168.49 (2nd, Skate America)
Pechalat/Bourzat: 165.68 (1st, Cup of China)
-----------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 163.42 (2nd, Cup of China)
****

Short Dance overall
Weaver/Poje: 70.35
Cappellini/Lanotte: 69.88
Bobrova/Soloviev: 65.70
--------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 63.60

Short Dance TES
Cappellini/Lanotte: 36.50
Weaver/Poje: 35.91
Bobrova/Soloviev: 31.15
----------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 28.77

Base Value
Cappellini/Lanotte: 32.00
Weaver/Poje: 30.50
Bobrova/Soloviev: 27.50
-------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 25.50

GOE
Weaver/Poje: 5.41
Cappellini/Lanotte: 4.50
Bobrova/Soloviev: 3.65
-----------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 3.27

Finnstep
Weaver/Poje: 15.50
Cappellini/Lanotte: 15.28
Bobrova/Soloviev: 12.00
------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 10.35

Everything else
Cappellini/Lanotte: 21.22
Weaver/Poje: 20.41
Bobrova/Soloviev: 19.15
---------------
Pechalat/Bourzat: 18.42

Short Dance PCS
Pechalat/Bourzat: 34.83
Bobrova/Soloviev: 34.55
Weaver Poje: 34.44
----------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 33.38

****

Free Dance overall
Weaver/Poje: 104.88
Pechalat/Bourzat: 102.08
Cappellini/Lanotte: 98.61
---------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 97.72

Free Dance TES
Weaver/Poje: 51.67
Pechalat/Bourzat: 49.03
Cappellini/Lanotte: 47.00
---------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 45.58

Base value
Weaver/Poje: 40.20
Pechalat/Bourzat: 40.20
Bobrova/Soloviev: 38.20
---------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 37.70

GOE
Weaver/Poje: 11.48
Cappellini/Lanotte: 9.30
Pechalat/Bourzat: 8.83
-------------
Bobrova/Soloviev: 7.38

Free Dance PCS
Weaver/Poje: 53.21
Pechlat/Bourzat: 53.05
Bobrova/Soloviev: 52.14
-------------
Cappellini/Lanotte: 51.61

Using a 15/10/5 scoring for the top three in each of these categories:

Overall:
Weaver/Poje: 15
Pechalat/Bourzat: 10
Cappellini/Lanotte: 5

Short Dance:
Weaver/Poje: 80
Cappellini/Lanotte: 75
Bobrova/Soloviev: 30
Pechalat/Bourzat: 15

Free Dance:
Weaver/Poje: 75
Pechalat/Bourzat: 45
Cappellini/Lanotte: 20
Bobrova/Soloviev: 10

Total:
Weaver/Poje: 170
Cappellini/Lanotte: 100
Pechalat/Bourzat: 70
Bobrova/Soloviev: 40

****

I know, different panels, not a perfect comparison, but it gives you an idea where everything stands. W/P look great in both; Cappellini/Lanotte have a great SD, but an OK FD. Pechalat/Bourzat have a great FD, but a not great SD. And as for Bobrova/Soloviev need work in both.

Thank you very much for putting the stats together! It's eye-opening.

W/P were at home, unlike all the other teams. You might wanna take that into consideration too.

C/L and P/B's issues can be resolved, they just need more practice. B/S's problems are unfixable unless she works real hard on her posture/lines and overall skating skills, which is not something you can do overnight. Plus their programs are really meh and it's not just a case of execution. I would say out of all these teams B/S really look the weakest right now. Bronze medal curse, anyone?

I actually thought that Bobrova's posture and line actually worsened this season. I know it's counter-intuitive, as you'd think improvements are cumulative. I didn't think her posture and line were glaringly unsightly before; I thought they were quite polished with the Man with the Harmonica. This Four Seasons program is as bad as the Faust one.

According to all the stats and analyses posted, it's better to have never won a bronze... so yes, the Bronze Curse is very real. Twice is a coincidence, thrice is suspicious, fourth is undeniable.

We still need to take I&K, Shibs, Chock & Bates, A&P :)eek:), et al into account.


Shibs - SD 61.26, 154.47. :no:

Home advantage aggrandizes the scores, yes, but not that much. Skaters do better when the crowd is behind them.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
One thing that does need to be taken into account is that the CoC tech panel was very, very strict calling the Finnstep. The Skate Canada panel was very easy, and the Skate America panel was almost as easy as Skate Canada. This kind of variance between panels happens every year, as tech panel members get used to calling the key points for a new pattern dance.

Ranking by the FD is more indicative of the relative strength of the competitors at this point in the season.
 

bellafurr

On the Ice
Joined
Mar 8, 2006
So, in other words VM and WP were marked to easy. Do you think they should be closerto BS and PB as COC judges were strict. Do you believe DW marks were right, lol.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
No. Just because an easy panel judges you, it doesn't mean they got your particular score too high, just that on average, they missed things.

Skate Canada

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpcan2013/gpcan2013_IceDance_SD_Scores.pdf

Skate America

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpusa2013/gpusa2013_IceDance_SD_Scores.pdf

Cup of China

http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2013/gpchn2013_IceDance_SD_Scores.pdf

What I am saying, is that If the Shibs and B&S and C&B and P&B had skated at Skate Canada, I doubt that all their pattern dance scores would have been as low.
 

Skater Boy

Record Breaker
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
I am not sure SC was as easy as SA. SA seemed to be more generous in pcs as well but you can't compare unless the teams were at the same event really
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
I am talking about the tech panel at SC and SA being easy on the Finnstep pattern dance, compared to CoC, not about the judges at the same events. Check the protocols. The tech panel were giving out level 4's in the pattern dance left and right.

I don't feel capable of assessing whether PCS was too high or too low at a given event unless there are huge, huge discrepancies, especially since so many of the things PCS measures are more difficult to assess on the TV or computer than they are live, and I wasn't at the events in question.

I can say that I think the PCS for Bobrova & Soloviev at Ice Star Minsk was really high, or that every team's PCS at their at their Nationals is too high, but internationally PCS seems to be too consistent, if anything. The judges still don't seem to use the components properly, by grading them separately, rather than as a block, at all ISU events. But that's a rant for a different time.
 
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BlackPack

Medalist
Joined
Mar 20, 2013
I can say that I think the PCS for Bobrova & Soloviev at Ice Star Minsk was really high, or that every team's PCS at their at their Nationals is too high, but internationally PCS seems to be too consistent, if anything. The judges still don't seem to use the components properly, by grading them separately, rather than as a block, at all ISU events. But that's a rant for a different time.

Do rant... this is very interesting. I'm still stuck in the 6.0 system like the people who still refer to the French currency as Francs instead of Euros. I'd like to gain more clarity on the judging. Ultimately, I think the teams were placed correctly, so that's the most important thing, but I still think the judging can be more precise.
 

dorispulaski

Wicked Yankee Girl
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Country
United-States
BlackPack, I absolutely agree that the skaters were placed in the right places at all 3 events, by and large, which is a good thing.

But in the current system, decisions are actually made about whether skaters have the minimum TES for worlds based on these competitions.

In the SD at CoC, only 2 teams made the qualifying score:

1 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 65.70 31.15 34.55 8.71 8.39 8.75 8.71 8.61 0.00 #8
2 Nathalie PECHALAT / Fabian BOURZAT FRA 63.60 28.77 34.83 8.57 8.57 8.79 8.89 8.71 0.00 #7
3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA 56.77 26.36 30.41 7.57 7.39 7.64 7.82 7.57 0.00 #6
4 Alexandra ALDRIDGE / Daniel EATON USA 52.92 26.20 26.72 6.82 6.43 6.75 6.82 6.57 0.00 #4
5 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 50.20 24.00 27.20 6.75 6.61 6.75 7.11 6.75 1.00 #5
6 Yiyi ZHANG / Nan WU CHN 41.79 20.28 21.51 5.50 5.18 5.50 5.43 5.29 0.00 #1
7 Xiaoyang YU / Chen WANG CHN 41.24 19.78 22.46 5.64 5.61 5.32 6.00 5.50 1.00 #3

The current cut has been dropped from 29 to 28, but even with that change, P&B only just got a qualifying score (of course, they already had one from Worlds last year). B&S also qualified. The other 5 teams failed to make the qualifying score.

At SC, four teams made the qualifying scores

1 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 73.15 35.34 37.81 9.33 9.46 9.42 9.50 9.54 0.00 #8
2 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 70.35 35.91 34.44 8.54 8.50 8.58 8.67 8.71 0.00 #7
3 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.92 32.50 29.42 7.29 7.17 7.33 7.42 7.50 1.00 #4
4 Ekaterina RIAZANOVA / Ilia TKACHENKO RUS 59.79 31.17 29.62 7.50 7.21 7.46 7.46 7.38 1.00 #5
5 Nelli ZHIGANSHINA / Alexander GAZSI GER 55.91 26.58 29.33 7.29 7.13 7.42 7.42 7.38 0.00 #6
6 Alexandra STEPANOVA / Ivan BUKIN RUS 55.63 27.66 27.97 7.17 6.96 7.00 6.88 6.96 0.00 #3
7 Alexandra PAUL / Mitchell ISLAM CAN 53.74 26.17 27.57 6.92 6.75 7.00 6.96 6.83 0.00 #1
8 Charlene GUIGNARD / Marco FABBRI ITA 52.03 25.92 28.11 6.96 6.88 7.17 7.17 6.96 2.00 #2

At Skate America, 5 teams made the qualifying score
1 Meryl DAVIS / Charlie WHITE USA 75.70 37.43 38.27 9.50 9.36 9.64 9.57 9.71 0.00 #8
2 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 69.88 36.50 33.38 8.25 8.04 8.43 8.39 8.54 0.00 #7
3 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 61.26 30.30 30.96 7.89 7.64 7.71 7.82 7.64 0.00 #6
4 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 60.71 30.79 29.92 7.54 7.29 7.54 7.46 7.54 0.00 #3
5 Julia ZLOBINA / Alexei SITNIKOV AZE 54.53 26.43 28.10 7.14 6.82 7.07 7.14 6.96 0.00 #5
6 Cathy REED / Chris REED JPN 54.28 28.85 25.43 6.39 6.11 6.36 6.50 6.39 0.00 #1
7 Pernelle CARRON / Lloyd JONES FRA 54.10 26.36 27.74 6.96 6.64 6.93 7.14 6.96 0.00 #4
8 Isabella TOBIAS / Deividas STAGNIUNAS LTU 53.17 25.85 27.32 6.79 6.54 6.93 6.96 6.89 0.00 #2




If you look at the average and standard deviations of the TES scores at the events, CoC is significantly lower, even when you take out the Chinese skaters, who are significantly weaker than any of the teams at either SC or SA.

TES
SC
SA
CoC
w/o Chinese
35.34
37.43
31.15
31.15
35.91
36.50
28.77
28.77
32.50
30.30
26.36
26.36
31.17
30.79
26.20
26.20
26.58
26.43
24.00
24.00
27.66
28.85
20.28
26.17
26.36
19.78
25.92
25.85
Average
30.16
30.31
25.22
27.30
Std Dev
4.13
4.50
4.19
 
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